Stress inversions to forecast magma pathways and eruptive vent location

When a batch of magma reaches Earth\u2019s surface, it forms a vent from which volcanic products are erupted. At many volcanoes, successive batches may open vents far away from previous ones, resulting in scattered, sometimes seemingly random spatial distributions. This exposes vast areas to volcanic hazards and makes forecasting difficult. Here, we show that magma pathways and thus future vent locations may be forecast by combining the physics of magma transport with a Monte Carlo inversion scheme for the volcano stress history. We validate our approach on a densely populated active volcanic field, Campi Flegrei (Italy), where we forecast future vents on an onshore semi-annular belt located between 2.3 and 4.2 km from the caldera center. Our approach offers a mechanical explanation for the vent migration over time at Campi Flegrei and at many calderas worldwide and may be applicable to volcanoes of any type

Giuseppe Mercalli da Monza al Reale Osservatorio vesuviano: una vita tra insegnamento e ricerca. contributi presentati per l’inaugurazione dell’anno mercalliano

A cento anni dalla scomparsa di Giuseppe Mercalli, sismologo e vulcanologo, noto principalmente per aver legato il suo nome a quello della scala per la misura dell’intensità dei terremoti, l’Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) ha promosso una serie di iniziative volte a rievocare la figura dell’illustre scienziato, in un itinerario lungo un anno che ripercorre i luoghi da lui vissuti da studioso e docente, dichiarando il duemilaquattordici “Anno Mercalliano”

Site Amplification map of Campi Flegrei and Vesuvius estimated from the combined analysis of Lithological and Seismological information

Seismic stations used for the site analysis. • Site Transfer functions resulted from the two different techniques: Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT) and Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Method. • Definition of homogeneous areas using the geological information. • Site amplification maps obtained for different frequency bands. All these analysys are done both for Vesuvius and Campi Flegre