Adaptively Smoothed Seismicity Earthquake Forecasts for Italy

We present a model for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m > 4.95 in Italy. The model, a slightly modified version of the one proposed for California by Helmstetter et al. (2007) and Werner et al. (2010), approximates seismicity by a spatially heterogeneous, temporally homogeneous Poisson point process. The temporal, spatial and magnitude dimensions are entirely decoupled. Magnitudes are independently and identically distributed according to a tapered Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We estimated the spatial distribution of future seismicity by smoothing the locations of past earthquakes listed in two Italian catalogs: a short instrumental catalog and a longer instrumental and historical catalog. The bandwidth of the adaptive spatial kernel is estimated by optimizing the predictive power of the kernel estimate of the spatial earthquake density in retrospective forecasts. When available and trustworthy, we used small earthquakes m>2.95 to illuminate active fault structures and likely future epicenters. By calibrating the model on two catalogs of different duration to create two forecasts, we intend to quantify the loss (or gain) of predictability incurred when only a short but recent data record is available. Both forecasts, scaled to five and ten years, were submitted to the Italian prospective forecasting experiment of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). An earlier forecast from the model was submitted by Helmstetter et al. (2007) to the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM) experiment in California, and, with over half of the five-year experiment over, the forecast performs better than its competitors.Comment: revised manuscript. 22 pages, 3 figures, 2 table

Magnetically Stabilized Nematic Order I: Three-Dimensional Bipartite Optical Lattices

We study magnetically stabilized nematic order for spin-one bosons in optical lattices. We show that the Zeeman field-driven quantum transitions between non-nematic Mott states and quantum spin nematic states in the weak hopping limit are in the universality class of the ferromagnetic XXZ (S=1/2) spin model. We further discuss these transitions as condensation of interacting magnons. The development of O(2) nematic order when external fields are applied corresponds to condensation of magnons, which breaks a U(1) symmetry. Microscopically, this results from a coherent superposition of two non-nematic states at each individual site. Nematic order and spin wave excitations around critical points are studied and critical behaviors are obtained in a dilute gas approximation. We also find that spin singlet states are unstable with respect to quadratic Zeeman effects and Ising nematic order appears in the presence of any finite quadratic Zeeman coupling. All discussions are carried out for states in three dimensional bipartite lattices.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figure

Generic dependence of the frequency-size distribution of earthquakes on depth and its relation to the strength profile of the crust

[1] We explore the idea that the relative size distribution of earthquakes, quantified using the so-called b-value, is negatively correlated with differential stress. Because the maximum possible differential stress increases linearly in the brittle upper crust, we expect to find a decrease of b with depth. We test this expectation for seven continental areas around the world, each of which is described by a regional earthquake catalog. We find a monotonic decrease in b-value between 5 and 15 km depth. The decrease stops near the brittle-ductile transition. We specifically focus on the high-quality catalogs of earthquakes in California to perform a sensitivity test with respect to depth uncertainty; we also estimate the probability-depth gradient for the occurrence of a target magnitude event and study the behavior of b with depth in near- and off-fault zones. We also translate the observed b-depth gradients into b-differential stress gradients. Our findings suggest that b-values are negatively correlated with differential stress and hus have the potential to act as stress meters in the Earth\u27s crust

Interface Analysis of MOCVD Grown GeTe/Sb2Te3 and Ge-Rich Ge-Sb-Te/Sb2Te3 Core-Shell Nanowires

Controlling material thickness and element interdiffusion at the interface is crucial for many applications of core-shell nanowires. Herein, we report the thickness-controlled and conformal growth of a Sb2Te3 shell over GeTe and Ge-rich Ge-Sb-Te core nanowires synthesized via metal-organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD), catalyzed by the Vapor-Liquid-Solid (VLS) mechanism. The thickness of the Sb2Te3 shell could be adjusted by controlling the growth time without altering the nanowire morphology. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) techniques were employed to examine the surface morphology and the structure of the nanowires. The study aims to investigate the interdiffusion, intactness, as well as the oxidation state of the core-shell nanowires. Angle-resolved X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) was applied to investigate the surface chemistry of the nanowires. No elemental interdiffusion between the GeTe, Ge-rich Ge-Sb-Te cores, and Sb2Te3 shell of the nanowires was revealed. Chemical bonding between the core and the shell was observed

Combining controlled-source seismology and receiver function information to derive 3-D Moho topography for Italy

The accurate definition of 3-D crustal structures and, in primis, the Moho depth, are the most important requirement for seismological, geophysical and geodynamic modelling in complex tectonic regions. In such areas, like the Mediterranean region, various active and passive seismic experiments are performed, locally reveal information on Moho depth, average and gradient crustal Vp velocity and average Vp/Vs velocity ratios. Until now, the most reliable information on crustal structures stems from controlled-source seismology experiments. In most parts of the Alpine region, a relatively large number of controlled-source seismology information are available though the overall coverage in the central Mediterranean area is still sparse due to high costs of such experiments. Thus, results from other seismic methodologies, such as local earthquake tomography, receiver functions and ambient noise tomography can be used to complement the controlled-source seismology information to increase coverage and thus the quality of 3-D crustal models. In this paper, we introduce a methodology to directly combine controlled-source seismology and receiver functions information relying on the strengths of each method and in relation to quantitative uncertainty estimates for all data to derive a well resolved Moho map for Italy. To obtain a homogeneous elaboration of controlled-source seismology and receiver functions results, we introduce a new classification/weighting scheme based on uncertainty assessment for receiver functions data. In order to tune the receiver functions information quality, we compare local receiver functions Moho depths and uncertainties with a recently derived well-resolved local earthquake tomography-derived Moho map and with controlled-source seismology information. We find an excellent correlation in the Moho information obtained by these three methodologies in Italy. In the final step, we interpolate the controlled-source seismology and receiver functions information to derive the map of Moho topography in Italy and surrounding regions. Our results show high-frequency undulation in the Moho topography of three different Moho interfaces, the European, the Adriatic-Ionian, and the Liguria-Corsica-Sardinia-Tyrrhenia, reflecting the complexity of geodynamical evolutio

A subaqueous hazard map for earthquake-triggered landslides in Lake Zurich, Switzerland

The awareness of geohazards in the subaqueous environment has steadily increased in the past years and there is an increased need to assess these hazards in a quantitative sense. Prime examples are subaqueous landslides, which can be triggered by a number of processes including earthquakes or human activities, and which may impact offshore and onshore infrastructure and communities. In the literature, a plenitude of subaqueous landslide events are related to historical earthquakes, including cases from lakes in Switzerland. Here, we present an approach for a basin-wide earthquake-triggered subaquatic landslide hazard assessment for Lake Zurich, which is surrounded by a densely populated shoreline. Our analysis is based on high-resolution sediment-mechanical and geophysical input data. Slope stabilities are calculated with a grid-based limit equilibrium model on an infinite slope, which uses Monte Carlo sampled input data from a sediment- mechanical stratigraphy of the lateral slopes. Combined with probabilistic ground-shaking forecasts from a recent national seismic hazard analysis, subaquatic earthquake-triggered landslide hazard maps are constructed for different mean return periods, ranging from 475 to 9975 years. Our results provide a first quantitative landslide hazard estimation for the lateral slopes in Lake Zurich. Furthermore, a back-analysis of a case-study site indicates that pseudostatic accelerations in the range between 0.04 and 0.08 g were needed to trigger a well-investigated subaqueous landslide, dated to *2210 cal. years B.P

Initial and sustained brain responses to contextual conditioned anxiety in humans

AbstractContextual fear conditioning takes place if the occurrence of threat cannot be predicted by specific cues. As a consequence the context becomes the best predictor of the threat and later induces anxiety (sustained fear response). Previous studies suggest that both the amygdala and the hippocampus are crucial for contextual fear conditioning. First, we wanted to further elucidate the neuronal correlates of long-lasting contextual threat within a highly ecologically setting created in virtual reality (VR). Second, we wanted to distinguish between initial and sustained components of the anxiety response to a threatening situation. Twenty-four participants were guided through two virtual offices for 30s each. They received unpredictable electric stimuli (unconditioned stimulus, US) in one office (anxiety context, CXT+), but never in the second office (safety context, CXT−). Successful contextual fear conditioning was indexed by higher anxiety and enhanced US-expectancy ratings for CXT+ versus CXT−. Initial neural activity was assessed by modeling the onsets of both contexts, and sustained neural activity by considering the entire context duration (contrasts: CXT+ > CXT−). Amygdala and hippocampus revealed sustained activity. Initial and sustained activities were found in the middle temporal gyrus, and primary motor cortex (M1). Additional initial activity was obvious in orbitofrontal (OFC), dorsomedial (dmPFC), and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC). These results suggest that entering a threatening context initially induces conditioned fear reactions (M1), recall of contingency awareness (dlPFC), and explicit threat appraisal (dmPFC, OFC). While remaining in the threatening context might involve anxiety-like conditioned responses (amygdala, M1) and the generation of a spatial map to predict where and when a threatening event may occur (hippocampus). We conclude that in humans initial versus sustained anxiety responses triggered by a threat associated context are associated with distinguishable brain activation patterns involving a fear network and a “contingency-cognitive” network, respectively

HighSTEPS. A high strain temperature pèressure and speed apparatus to study earthquake mechanics

We present a state of-the-art biaxial apparatus able to study both earthquake rupture nucleation and propagation at conditions typical of the seismogenic crust. The HighSTEPS, High Strain TEmperature Pressure Speed, apparatus simulates fault deformation in a wide range of slip velocities, i.e., from 10-5m/s to 0.25 m/s. Within this velocity range, it is possible to study, the rate-and-state friction, the fault dynamic weakening, and healing under unique boundary conditions, i.e., normal stress up to 100 MPa, confining pressure up to 100 MPa, pore fluid pressure up to 100 MPa and temperature up to 120 °C. The apparatus consists of a hydraulic system integrated with four linear motors. The hydraulic system allows for the application of normal stress, confining pressure and pore fluid pressure. The main peculiarity of this apparatus is the system of four linear motors that are mounted in series in order to apply shearing velocities up to 0.25 m/s, accelerations up to 10 m/s2 and shear stresses up to 200 MPa. Moreover, both experiments in sliding velocity control or shear stress control on the experimental faults are possible. Preliminary experiments on carbonate and silicate bearing rocks are coherent with the previous literature. The investigation of fault friction under a wide range of velocities, normal stresses, confining pressures and pore fluid pressures will provide insights into the mechanics of earthquakes and reduce the gap between natural and laboratory observations

In-doped Sb nanowires grown by MOCVD for high speed phase change memories

We investigated the Phase Change Memory (PCM) capabilities of In-doped Sb nanowires (NWs) with diameters of (20-40) nm, which were self-assembled by Metalorganic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) via the vapor-liquid-solid (VLS) mechanism. The PCM behavior of the NWs was proved, and it was shown to have relatively low reset power consumption (~ 400 μW) and fast switching capabilities with respect to standard Ge-Sb-Te based devices. In particular, reversible set and reset switches by voltage pulses as short as 25 ns were demonstrated. The obtained results are useful for understanding the effects of downscaling in PCM devices and for the exploration of innovative PCM architectures and materials