Mission-oriented public policy and the new evaluation culture

In this chapter, our aim is to develop a framework to improve public policy-related evaluation practice for a more adaptive and anticipatory evaluation approach, better in tune with complex interactions and interdependencies that have emerged on our policy agenda today. One of the features of this space for interactions that is public policy is its mission orientation. Such an orientation is accompanied by the evolution of public policy instruments, which in turn necessitate new evaluation approaches. We are convinced that this requires developing a conceptual framework, which can be taken forward to test and further operationalise in situations where similar systemic transformations for policy development are elaborated upon. Based on our work on public-sector leadership, we are proposing a framework for evaluation in a more mission-driven and systems-based perspective. The framework seeks to take better into consideration the diversity of policy interventions at our disposal, ranging from traditional budgetary or legislative instruments to experimentation and piloting. Changes are identified in the very characteristics of the societal problems we are trying to solve, as well as in the nature of policy, both subsequently requiring a more multifaceted scope of evaluation, an emerging practice being towards a more mission-oriented one as well as a more nuanced approach depending on whether one is interested in the multi-organisational performance, policy service delivery or quality of outputs and impacts from policy initiatives and projects. The focus of evaluation in turn ranges from the accountability to evaluation criteria, timescale, motivation, as well as type of intervention used.fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Can Bangladesh produce enough cereals to meet future demand?

Bangladesh faces huge challenges in achieving food security due to its high population, diet changes, and limited room for expanding cropland and cropping intensity. The objective of this study is to assess the degree to which Bangladesh can be self-sufficient in terms of domestic maize, rice and wheat production by the years 2030 and 2050 by closing the existing gap (Yg) between yield potential (Yp) and actual farm yield (Ya), accounting for possible changes in cropland area. Yield potential and yield gaps were calculated for the three crops using well-validated crop models and site-specific weather,management and soil data, and upscaled to the whole country.We assessed potential grain production in the years 2030 and 2050 for six land use change scenarios (general decrease in arable land; declining ground water tables in the north; cropping of fallow areas in the south; effect of sea level rise; increased cropping intensity; and larger share of cash crops) and three levels of Yg closure (1: no yield increase; 2: Yg closure at a level equivalent to 50% (50% Yg closure); 3: Yg closure to a level of 85% of Yp (irrigated crops) and 80% of water-limited yield potential or Yw (rainfed crops) (full Yg closure)). In addition, changes in demand with low and high population growth rates, and substitution of rice by maize in future diets were also examined. Total aggregated demand of the three cereals (in milled rice equivalents) in 2030 and 2050, based on the UN median population variant, is projected to be 21 and 24% higher than in 2010. Current Yg represent 50% (irrigated rice), 48–63% (rainfed rice), 49% (irrigated wheat), 40% (rainfed wheat), 46% (irrigated maize), and 44% (rainfed maize) of their Yp or Yw.With 50% Yg closure and for various land use changes, self-sufficiency ratio will be N1 for rice in 2030 and about one in 2050 but well below one for maize and wheat in both 2030 and 2050. With full Yg closure, self-sufficiency ratios will be well above one for rice and all three cereals jointly but below one for maize and wheat for all scenarios, except for the scenario with drastic decrease in boro rice area to allow for area expansion for cash crops. Full Yg closure of all cereals is needed to compensate for area decreases and demand increases, and then even some maize and large amounts of wheat imports will be required to satisfy demand in future. The results of this analysis have important implications for Bangladesh and other countries with high population growth rate, shrinking arable land due to rapid urbanization, and highly vulnerable to climate change

Randomized pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic comparison of fluoroquinolones for tuberculous meningitis.

Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is the most lethal form of tuberculosis, and new treatments that improve outcomes are required. We randomly assigned adults with TBM to treatment with standard antituberculosis treatment alone or in combination with ciprofloxacin (750 mg/12 h), levofloxacin (500 mg/12 h), or gatifloxacin (400 mg/24 h) for the first 60 days of therapy. Fluoroquinolone concentrations were measured with plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens taken at predetermined, randomly assigned times throughout treatment. We aimed to describe the pharmacokinetics of each fluoroquinolone during TBM treatment and evaluate the relationship between drug exposure and clinical response over 270 days of therapy (Controlled Trials number ISRCTN07062956). Sixty-one patients with TBM were randomly assigned to treatment with no fluoroquinolone (n = 15), ciprofloxacin (n = 16), levofloxacin (n = 15), or gatifloxacin (n = 15). Cerebrospinal fluid penetration, measured by the ratio of the plasma area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h (AUC0–24) to the cerebrospinal fluid AUC0–24, was greater for levofloxacin (median, 0.74; range, 0.58 to 1.03) than for gatifloxacin (median, 0.48; range, 0.47 to 0.50) or ciprofloxacin (median, 0.26; range, 0.11 to 0.77). Univariable and multivariable analyses of fluoroquinolone exposure against a range of different treatment responses revealed worse outcomes among patients with lower and higher plasma and CSF exposures than for patients with intermediate exposures (a U-shaped exposure-response). TBM patients most likely to benefit from fluoroquinolone therapy were identified, along with exposure-response relationships associated with improved outcomes. Fluoroquinolones add antituberculosis activity to the standard treatment regimen, but to improve outcomes of TBM, they must be started early, before the onset of coma

An emerging field: An evaluation of biomedical graduate student and postdoctoral education and training research across seven decades

Biomedical graduate student and postdoctoral education and training research has expanded greatly over the last seven decades, leading to increased publications and the emergence of a field. The goal of this study was to analyze this growth by performing a cross-sectional bibliometric analysis using a systematic approach to better understand the publishing trends (including historical vs. emerging themes and research priorities); depth, structure, and evidence-basis of content; and venues for publication. The analysis documented a dramatic increase in biomedical trainee-related publications over time and showed that this area of research is maturing into its own independent field. Results demonstrated that the most frequently published article types in this field are shorter editorial and opinion pieces, and that evidence-based articles are less numerous. However, if current trends continue, projections indicate that by the year 2035, evidence-based articles will be the dominating article type published in this field. Most frequently published topics included career outcomes and workforce characterization and professional development. In recent years, the most cited articles were publications focused on diversity, equity, and inclusion, career outcomes and workforce characterization, and wellness. This study also shows that although a small subset of journals publishes most of this literature, publications are distributed diffusely across a wide range of journals and that surprisingly 68% of these journals have published only a single article on the topic. Further, we noted that the assignment of author- and index-supplied keywords was variable and inconsistent and speculate that this could create challenges to conducting comprehensive literature searches. Recommendations to address this include establishing standard keyword assignment criteria and proposing new index-supplied keywords to improve accessibility of research findings. These changes will be important for bringing visibility of this literature to our community, institutional leaders, national trainee organizations, and funding agencies

Rooting for food security in Sub-Saharan Africa

There is a persistent narrative about the potential of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to be a 'grain breadbasket' because of large gaps between current low yields and yield potential with good management, and vast land resources with adequate rainfall. However, rigorous evaluation of the extent to which soils can support high, stable yields has been limited by lack of data on rootable soil depth of sufficient quality and spatial resolution. Here we use location-specific climate data, a robust spatial upscaling approach, and crop simulation to assess sensitivity of rainfed maize yields to root-zone water holding capacity. We find that SSA could produce a modest maize surplus but only if rootable soil depths are comparable to that of other major breadbaskets, such as the US Corn Belt and South American Pampas, which is unlikely based on currently available information. Otherwise, producing surplus grain for export will depend on expansion of crop area with the challenge of directing this expansion to regions where soil depth and rainfall are supportive of high and consistent yields, and where negative impacts on biodiversity are minimal

Employee perceived effect of leadership training: comparing public and private organizations

This study reports on the effectiveness of a year-long field experiment involving training in transformational and transactional leadership in the public and private sectors. Using before and after training assessments by employees of several hundred Danish leaders, the analysis shows that transformational leadership training is associated with increases in behaviors linked to both transformational leadership and the use of verbal rewards, but only for public sector organizations. There is no impact in private sector organizations. Transactional leadership training appears to be equally effective in stimulating the use of pecuniary rewards in both public and private organizations

Use of agro-climatic zones to upscale simulated crop yield potential

Yield gap analysis, which evaluates magnitude and variability of difference between crop yield potential (Yp) or water limited yield potential (Yw) and actual farm yields, provides a measure of untapped food production capacity. Reliable location-specific estimates of yield gaps, either derived from research plots or simulation models, are available only for a limited number of locations and crops due to cost and time required for field studies or for obtaining data on long-term weather, crop rotations and management practices, and soil properties. Given these constraints, we compare global agro-climatic zonation schemes for suitability to up-scale location-specific estimates of Yp and Yw, which are the basis for estimating yield gaps at regional, national, and global scales. Six global climate zonation schemes were evaluated for climatic homogeneity within delineated climate zones (CZs) and coverage of crop area. An efficient CZ scheme should strike an effective balance between zone size and number of zones required to cover a large portion of harvested area of major food crops. Climate heterogeneity was very large in CZ schemes with less than 100 zones. Of the other four schemes, the Global Yield Gap Atlas Extrapolation Domain (GYGA-ED) approach, based on a matrix of three categorical variables (growing degree days, aridity index, temperature seasonality) to delineate CZs for harvested area of all major food crops, achieved reasonable balance between number of CZs to cover 80% of global crop area and climate homogeneity within zones. While CZ schemes derived from two climate-related categorical variables require a similar number of zones to cover 80% of crop area, within-zone heterogeneity is substantially greater than for the GYGA-ED for most weather variables that are sensitive drivers of crop production. Some CZ schemes are crop-specific, which limits utility for up-scaling location-specific evaluation of yield gaps in regions with crop rotations rather than single crop species

Assessing public leadership styles for innovation:A comparison of Copenhagen, Rotterdam and Barcelona

This article explores which leadership qualities public managers regard as important for public innovation. It is based on a survey of 365 senior public managers in Copenhagen, Rotterdam and Barcelona. Five perspectives on leadership were identified and tested using a number of items. Some of these proved to be more robust than others. Analysis of the three cities reveals a nuanced set of leadership styles, which include a transformational style, and one that is more dedicated to motivating employees, risk-taking and including others in decision-making. This suggests the need for more research on leadership and public-sector innovation

Data Literacies and Social Justice: Exploring Critical Data Literacies through Sociocultural Perspectives

The ability to interpret, evaluate, and make data-based decisions is critical in the age of big data. Normative scripts around the use of data position them as a privileged epistemic form conferring authority through objectivity that can serve as a lever for effecting change. However, humans and materials shape how data are created and used which can reinscribe existing power relations in society at large (Van Wart, Lanouette & Parikh, in press). Thus, research is needed on how learners can be supported to engage in critical data literacies through sociocultural perspectives. As a field intimately concerned with data-based reasoning, social justice, and design, the learning sciences is well-positioned to contribute to such an effort. This symposium brings together scholars to present theoretical frameworks and empirical studies on the design of learning spaces for critical data literacies. This collection supports a larger discussion around existing tensions, additional design considerations, and new methodologies