Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape

Standard approaches to determining the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge flooding employ numerical models reflecting present conditions with modified sea states for a given SLR scenario. In this study, we advance this paradigm by adjusting the model framework so that it reflects not only a change in sea state but also variations to the landscape (morphologic changes and urbanization of coastal cities). We utilize a numerical model of the Mississippi and Alabama coast to simulate the response of hurricane storm surge to changes in sea level, land use/land cover, and land surface elevation for past (1960), present (2005), and future (2050) conditions. The results show that the storm surge response to SLR is dynamic and sensitive to changes in the landscape. We introduce a new modeling framework that includes modification of the landscape when producing storm surge models for future conditions. Key Points --Storm surge response to climate change impacts is dynamic. --A framework for constructing dynamic assessments of SLR is develope

Data And Numerical Analysis Of Astronomic Tides, Wind-Waves, And Hurricane Storm Surge Along The Northern Gulf Of Mexico

The northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) is a unique geophysical setting for complex tropical storm-induced hydrodynamic processes that occur across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Each hurricane includes its own distinctive characteristics and can cause unique and devastating storm surge when it strikes within the intricate geometric setting of the NGOM. While a number of studies have explored hurricane storm surge in the NGOM, few have attempted to describe storm surge and coastal inundation using observed data in conjunction with a single large-domain high-resolution numerical model. To better understand the oceanic and nearshore response to these tropical cyclones, we provide a detailed assessment, based on field measurements and numerical simulation, of the evolution of wind waves, water levels, and currents for Hurricanes Ivan (2004), Dennis (2005), Katrina (2005), and Isaac (2012), with focus on Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle coasts. The developed NGOM3 computational model describes the hydraulic connectivity among the various inlet and bay systems, Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, coastal rivers and adjacent marsh, and built infrastructure along the coastal floodplain. The outcome is a better understanding of the storm surge generating mechanisms and interactions among hurricane characteristics and the NGOM\u27s geophysical configuration. The numerical analysis and observed data explain the ∼2 m/s hurricane-induced geostrophic currents across the continental shelf, a 6 m/s outflow current during Ivan, the hurricane-induced coastal Kelvin wave along the shelf, and for the first time a wealth of measured data and a detailed numerical simulation was performed and was presented for Isaac

The Influence of Channel Deepening on Tides, River Discharge Effects, and Storm Surge

We combine archival research, semi-analytical models, and numerical simulations to address the following question: how do changes to channel geometry alter tidal properties and flood dynamics in a hyposynchronous, strongly frictional estuary with a landward decay in tidal amplitudes? Records in the Saint Johns River Estuary since the 1890s show that tidal range has doubled in Jacksonville, Florida. Near the estuary inlet, tidal discharge approximately doubled but tidal amplitudes increased only ~6%. Modeling shows that increased shipping channel depths from 5-6 to ~13m drove the observed changes, with other factors like channel shortening and width reduction producing comparatively minor effects. Tidal amplitude increases are spatially variable, with a maximum change 20-25 km from the estuary inlet; tidal theory suggests that increases in amplitude approximately follow , where x is the distance from the ocean and is a damping coefficient. Tidal changes are a predictor of altered surge dynamics: Numerical modeling of hurricane Irma under 1898 and 2017 bathymetric conditions confirms that both tidal and storm surge amplitudes are larger today, with a similar spatial pattern. Nonetheless, peak water levels are simulated to be larger under 1898 bathymetry. The cause is likely the record river discharge observed during the storm; as suggested by a subtidal water-level model, channel deepening since 1898 appears to have reduced the average surface slope required to drain both mean river flow and storm flows towards the ocean. Nonetheless, results suggest an increased vulnerability to storms with less river flow, but larger storm surge