Uncertainty quantification for severe-accident reactor modelling: Set-up and first results of the Horizon-2020 project MUSA

The current Horizon-2020 project on “Management and Uncertainties of Severe Accidents (MUSA)” aims at applying Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in the modelling of Severe Accidents (SA), particularly in predicting the radiological source term of mitigated and unmitigated accident reactor scenarios. A selected number of severe accident sequences of different nuclear power plant designs (e.g. PWR, VVER, and BWR) are addressed. The application of the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methodology to reactor accident scenarios requires a number of key steps: (i) the selection of severe accident sequences for each reactor design; (ii) the development of a reference input model for the specific design and SA-code; (iii) the definition of the figures of merit for the UQ-analysis; (iv) the selection of a list of uncertain model parameters to be investigated; (v) the choice of a statistical tool to propagate input deck uncertainties; (vi) the selection of a feasible approach (i.e., Monte Carlo versus order statistics) to address UQ by using a statistical software (i.e., UQ-tools DAKOTA, SUSA, URANIE, etc.); (vii) the running phase to achieve a high number of successful realizations with the SA codes; and, (viii) the statistical evaluation of the results (i.e., sensitivity analysis). This paper describes each of these steps such as settled in the reactor applications work package of the EU MUSA project and pays particular attention to the choices made by partners. It presents preliminary results also with an emphasis on the major challenges posed by BEPU application in the field of SA analysis

Сравнительная эффективность различных режимов медикаментозной профилактики постнагрузочного бронхоспазма у детей: результаты многоцентрового рандомизированного исследования

The article demonstrates results of multi-center randomized placebo-controlled study of efficacy of 4 drug modes of post-exercise bronchoconstriction prevention in asthmatic children who received long-term therapy with inhaled corticosteriods. The combination of fluticazone propionate and salmeterol (Seretid 50/100) was found to be beneficial and reasonable as the first-line therapy. An increase of the inhaled corticosteroid’s dose in asthmatic children with post-exercise bronchoconstriction is reasonable if its combination with the long-acting β2-agonist does not permit to achieve a sufficient bronchoprotective effect.В статье представлены результаты многоцентрового рандомизированного плацебо-контролируемого исследования эффективности четырех режимов медикаментозной профилактики постнагрузочного  бронхоспазма у детей с бронхиальной астмой, получавших долговременную терапию ингаляционнымикортикостероидами. Установлено преимущество и обоснована целесообразность использования у данной группы больных комбинации флутиказона пропионата и сальметерола (Серетида 50/100) в качестве терапии выбора. Увеличение дозы ингаляционного кортикостероида у детей с бронхиальной астмой и явлениями постнагрузочного бронхоспазма целесообразно в ситуации, когда комбинированная терапия с β2-агонистом длительного действия не позволяет достичь достаточного бронхопротекторного эффекта