Pattern recognition. v- samp - a computer program for estimating surface area from contour maps

Fortran computer program for computing linear approximation of surface area for any given portion of digitized contour ma

The mortality rates and the space-time patterns of John Snow’s cholera epidemic map

Background Snow’s work on the Broad Street map is widely known as a pioneering example of spatial epidemiology. It lacks, however, two significant attributes required in contemporary analyses of disease incidence: population at risk and the progression of the epidemic over time. Despite this has been repeatedly suggested in the literature, no systematic investigation of these two aspects was previously carried out. Using a series of historical documents, this study constructs own data to revisit Snow’s study to examine the mortality rate at each street location and the space-time pattern of the cholera outbreak. Methods This study brings together records from a series of historical documents, and prepares own data on the estimated number of residents at each house location as well as the space-time data of the victims, and these are processed in GIS to facilitate the spatial-temporal analysis. Mortality rates and the space-time pattern in the victims’ records are explored using Kernel Density Estimation and network-based Scan Statistic, a recently developed method that detects significant concentrations of records such as the date and place of victims with respect to their distance from others along the street network. The results are visualised in a map form using a GIS platform. Results Data on mortality rates and space-time distribution of the victims were collected from various sources and were successfully merged and digitised, thus allowing the production of new map outputs and new interpretation of the 1854 cholera outbreak in London, covering more cases than Snow’s original report and also adding new insights into their space-time distribution. They confirmed that areas in the immediate vicinity of the Broad Street pump indeed suffered from excessively high mortality rates, which has been suspected for the past 160 years but remained unconfirmed. No distinctive pattern was found in the space-time distribution of victims’ locations. Conclusions The high mortality rates identified around the Broad Street pump are consistent with Snow’s theory about cholera being transmitted through contaminated water. The absence of a clear space-time pattern also indicates the water-bourne, rather than the then popular belief of air bourne, nature of cholera. The GIS data constructed in this study has an academic value and would cater for further research on Snow’s map

Population weighted raster maps can communicate findings of social audits: examples from three continents

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Maps can portray trends, patterns, and spatial differences that might be overlooked in tabular data and are now widely used in health research. Little has been reported about the process of using maps to communicate epidemiological findings.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>Population weighted raster maps show colour changes over the study area. Similar to the rasters of barometric pressure in a weather map, data are the health occurrence – a peak on the map represents a higher value of the indicator in question. The population relevance of each sentinel site, as determined in the stratified last stage random sample, combines with geography (inverse-distance weighting) to provide a population-weighted extension of each colour. This transforms the map to show population space rather than simply geographic space.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Maps allowed discussion of strategies to reduce violence against women in a context of political <it>sensitivity</it> about quoting summary indicator figures. <it>Time-series maps</it> showed planners how experiences of health services had deteriorated despite a reform programme; where in a country HIV risk behaviours were improving; and how knowledge of an economic development programme quickly fell off across a region. <it>Change maps</it> highlighted where indicators were improving and where they were deteriorating. Maps of <it>potential impact of interventions</it>, based on multivariate modelling, displayed how partial and full implementation of programmes could improve outcomes across a country. <it>Scale</it> depends on context. To support local planning, district maps or local government authority maps of health indicators were more useful than national maps; but multinational maps of outcomes were more useful for regional institutions. Mapping was useful to illustrate in which districts enrolment in religious schools – a <it>rare occurrence</it> - was more prevalent.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Population weighted raster maps can present social audit findings in an accessible and compelling way, increasing the use of evidence by planners with limited numeracy skills or little time to look at evidence. Maps complement epidemiological analysis, but they are not a substitute. Much less do they substitute for rigorous epidemiological designs, like randomised controlled trials.</p

Dispersal and population structure at different spatial scales in the subterranean rodent Ctenomys australis

<p>Abstract</p> <p><b>Background</b></p> <p>The population genetic structure of subterranean rodent species is strongly affected by demographic (e.g. rates of dispersal and social structure) and stochastic factors (e.g. random genetic drift among subpopulations and habitat fragmentation). In particular, gene flow estimates at different spatial scales are essential to understand genetic differentiation among populations of a species living in a highly fragmented landscape. <it>Ctenomys australis </it>(the sand dune tuco-tuco) is a territorial subterranean rodent that inhabits a relatively secure, permanently sealed burrow system, occurring in sand dune habitats on the coastal landscape in the south-east of Buenos Aires province, Argentina. Currently, this habitat is threatened by urban development and forestry and, therefore, the survival of this endemic species is at risk. Here, we assess population genetic structure and patterns of dispersal among individuals of this species at different spatial scales using 8 polymorphic microsatellite loci. Furthermore, we evaluate the relative importance of sex and habitat configuration in modulating the dispersal patterns at these geographical scales.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our results show that dispersal in <it>C. australis </it>is not restricted at regional spatial scales (~ 4 km). Assignment tests revealed significant population substructure within the study area, providing support for the presence of two subpopulations from three original sampling sites. Finally, male-biased dispersal was found in the Western side of our study area, but in the Eastern side no apparent philopatric pattern was found, suggesting that in a more continuous habitat males might move longer distances than females.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Overall, the assignment-based approaches were able to detect population substructure at fine geographical scales. Additionally, the maintenance of a significant genetic structure at regional (~ 4 km) and small (less than 1 km) spatial scales despite apparently moderate to high levels of gene flow between local sampling sites could not be explained simply by the linear distance among them. On the whole, our results support the hypothesis that males disperse more frequently than females; however they do not provide support for strict philopatry within females.</p

Scenario of the spread of the invasive species Zaprionus indianus Gupta, 1970 (Diptera, Drosophilidae) in Brazil

Zaprionus indianus was first recorded in Brazil in 1999 and rapidly spread throughout the country. We have obtained data on esterase loci polymorphisms (Est2 and Est3), and analyzed them, using Landscape Shape Interpolation and the Monmonier Maximum Difference Algorithm to discover how regional invasion occurred. Hence, it was apparent that Z. indianus, after first arriving in São Paulo state, spread throughout the country, probably together with the transportation of commercial fruits by way of the two main Brazilian freeways, BR 153, to the south and the surrounding countryside, and the BR 116 along the coast and throughout the north-east

Genetic Differentiation of the Western Capercaillie Highlights the Importance of South-Eastern Europe for Understanding the Species Phylogeography

The Western Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) is a grouse species of open boreal or high altitude forests of Eurasia. It is endangered throughout most mountain range habitat areas in Europe. Two major genetically identifiable lineages of Western Capercaillie have been described to date: the southern lineage at the species' southernmost range of distribution in Europe, and the boreal lineage. We address the question of genetic differentiation of capercaillie populations from the Rhodope and Rila Mountains in Bulgaria, across the Dinaric Mountains to the Slovenian Alps. The two lineages' contact zone and resulting conservation strategies in this so-far understudied area of distribution have not been previously determined. The results of analysis of mitochondrial DNA control region sequences of 319 samples from the studied populations show that Alpine populations were composed exclusively of boreal lineage; Dinaric populations of both, but predominantly (96%) of boreal lineage; and Rhodope-Rila populations predominantly (>90%) of southern lineage individuals. The Bulgarian mountains were identified as the core area of the southern lineage, and the Dinaric Mountains as the western contact zone between both lineages in the Balkans. Bulgarian populations appeared genetically distinct from Alpine and Dinaric populations and exhibited characteristics of a long-term stationary population, suggesting that they should be considered as a glacial relict and probably a distinct subspecies. Although all of the studied populations suffered a decline in the past, the significantly lower level of genetic diversity when compared with the neighbouring Alpine and Bulgarian populations suggests that the isolated Dinaric capercaillie is particularly vulnerable to continuing population decline. The results are discussed in the context of conservation of the species in the Balkans, its principal threats and legal protection status. Potential conservation strategies should consider the existence of the two lineages and their vulnerable Dinaric contact zone and support the specificities of the populations