Forecasting the SST space-time variability of the Alboran Sea with genetic algorithms

We propose a nonlinear ocean forecasting technique based on a combination of genetic algorithms and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The method is used to forecast the space-time variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Alboran Sea. The genetic algorithm finds the equations that best describe the behaviour of the different temporal amplitude functions in the EOF decomposition and, therefore, enables global forecasting of the future time-variability.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures; latex compiled with agums.st

Optimality of mutation and selection in germinal centers

The population dynamics theory of B cells in a typical germinal center could play an important role in revealing how affinity maturation is achieved. However, the existing models encountered some conflicts with experiments. To resolve these conflicts, we present a coarse-grained model to calculate the B cell population development in affinity maturation, which allows a comprehensive analysis of its parameter space to look for optimal values of mutation rate, selection strength, and initial antibody-antigen binding level that maximize the affinity improvement. With these optimized parameters, the model is compatible with the experimental observations such as the ~100-fold affinity improvements, the number of mutations, the hypermutation rate, and the "all or none" phenomenon. Moreover, we study the reasons behind the optimal parameters. The optimal mutation rate, in agreement with the hypermutation rate in vivo, results from a tradeoff between accumulating enough beneficial mutations and avoiding too many deleterious or lethal mutations. The optimal selection strength evolves as a balance between the need for affinity improvement and the requirement to pass the population bottleneck. These findings point to the conclusion that germinal centers have been optimized by evolution to generate strong affinity antibodies effectively and rapidly. In addition, we study the enhancement of affinity improvement due to B cell migration between germinal centers. These results could enhance our understandings to the functions of germinal centers.Comment: 5 figures in main text, and 4 figures in Supplementary Informatio

A “Crossomics” Study Analysing Variability of Different Components in Peripheral Blood of Healthy Caucasoid Individuals

Background: Different immunotherapy approaches for the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases are being developed and tested in clinical studies worldwide. Their resulting complex experimental data should be properly evaluated, therefore reliable normal healthy control baseline values are indispensable. Methodology/Principal Findings: To assess intra- and inter-individual variability of various biomarkers, peripheral blood of 16 age and gender equilibrated healthy volunteers was sampled on 3 different days within a period of one month. Complex "crossomics'' analyses of plasma metabolite profiles, antibody concentrations and lymphocyte subset counts as well as whole genome expression profiling in CD4(+)T and NK cells were performed. Some of the observed age, gender and BMI dependences are in agreement with the existing knowledge, like negative correlation between sex hormone levels and age or BMI related increase in lipids and soluble sugars. Thus we can assume that the distribution of all 39.743 analysed markers is well representing the normal Caucasoid population. All lymphocyte subsets, 20% of metabolites and less than 10% of genes, were identified as highly variable in our dataset. Conclusions/Significance: Our study shows that the intra- individual variability was at least two-fold lower compared to the inter-individual one at all investigated levels, showing the importance of personalised medicine approach from yet another perspective

Functional Stability of Unliganded Envelope Glycoprotein Spikes among Isolates of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1)

The HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) spike is challenging to study at the molecular level, due in part to its genetic variability, structural heterogeneity and lability. However, the extent of lability in Env function, particularly for primary isolates across clades, has not been explored. Here, we probe stability of function for variant Envs of a range of isolates from chronic and acute infection, and from clades A, B and C, all on a constant virus backbone. Stability is elucidated in terms of the sensitivity of isolate infectivity to destabilizing conditions. A heat-gradient assay was used to determine T90 values, the temperature at which HIV-1 infectivity is decreased by 90% in 1 h, which ranged between ∼40 to 49°C (n = 34). For select Envs (n = 10), the half-lives of infectivity decay at 37°C were also determined and these correlated significantly with the T90 (p = 0.029), though two ‘outliers’ were identified. Specificity in functional Env stability was also evident. For example, Env variant HIV-1ADA was found to be labile to heat, 37°C decay, and guanidinium hydrochloride but not to urea or extremes of pH, when compared to its thermostable counterpart, HIV-1JR-CSF. Blue native PAGE analyses revealed that Env-dependent viral inactivation preceded complete dissociation of Env trimers. The viral membrane and membrane-proximal external region (MPER) of gp41 were also shown to be important for maintaining trimer stability at physiological temperature. Overall, our results indicate that primary HIV-1 Envs can have diverse sensitivities to functional inactivation in vitro, including at physiological temperature, and suggest that parameters of functional Env stability may be helpful in the study and optimization of native Env mimetics and vaccines