Currency Preferences in a Tri-Polar Model of Foreign Exchange

This paper reopens the subject of currency preferences while modeling the exchange rates among three major currencies - the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen. The exchange rate model presented in this paper includes not only traditional determinants of bilateral exchange rates but incorporates third-currency effects in addition. The obtained estimation results are interpreted from the perspective of possible currency substitution and complementarity relationships. We find evidence of currency complementarity between the yen and the euro, and currency substitution of the dollar for both the euro and the yen. The estimated third-currency effects are consistent with our findings on currency substitution and complementarity among the three major currencies.Exchange Rate Modeling; Currency Substitution; Currency Complementarity; Third-Currency Effects

Currency Preferences in a Tri-Polar Model of Foreign Exchange

This paper reopens the subject of currency preferences while modeling the exchange rates among three major currencies - the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen. The exchange rate model presented in this paper includes not only traditional determinants of bilateral exchange rates but incorporates third-currency effects in addition. The obtained estimation results are interpreted from the perspective of possible currency substitution and complementarity relationships. We find evidence of currency complementarity between the yen and the euro, and currency substitution of the dollar for both the euro and the yen. The estimated third-currency effects are consistent with our findings on currency substitution and complementarity among the three major currencies

Currency Preferences in a Tri-Polar Model of Foreign Exchange

This paper reopens the subject of currency preferences while modeling the exchange rates among three major currencies - the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen. The exchange rate model presented in this paper includes not only traditional determinants of bilateral exchange rates but incorporates third-currency effects in addition. The obtained estimation results are interpreted from the perspective of possible currency substitution and complementarity relationships. We find evidence of currency complementarity between the yen and the euro, and currency substitution of the dollar for both the euro and the yen. The estimated third-currency effects are consistent with our findings on currency substitution and complementarity among the three major currencies

Climate Vulnerability and the Cost of Debt

We use indices from the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative to investigate the impact of climate vulnerability on bond yields. Our methodology invokes panel ordinary least squares with robust standard errors and principal component analysis. The latter serves to address the multicollinearity between a set of vulnerability measures. We find that countries with higher exposure to climate vulnerability, such as the member countries of the V20 climate vulnerable forum, exhibit 1.174 percent higher cost of debt on average. This effect is significant after accounting for a set of macroeconomic controls. Specifically, we estimate the incremental debt cost due to higher climate vulnerability, for the V20 countries, to have exceeded USD 62 billion over the last ten years. In other words, for every ten dollars they pay in interest cost, they pay another dollar for being climate vulnerable. We also find that a measure of social readiness, which includes education and infrastructure, has a negative and significant effect on bond yields, implying that social and physical investments can mitigate climate risk related debt costs and help to stabilize the cost of debt for vulnerable countries

Macroprudential stress-testing practices of central banks in Central and Southeastern Europe: comparison and challenges ahead

This paper reviews and compares stress-testing practices of central banks in Central and Southeastern Europe (CSEECBs) and outlines challenges in the area of stress testing going forward. The authors, focusing their comparison on CSEECBs, construct the baseline and stress scenarios, map macroeconomic scenarios and microeconomic factors to risk factors, calculate risk exposures to different risk indicators, and estimate outcome indicators to inform macroprudential policy. The main challenges going forward concern data reliability, consideration of quantitative microprudential indicators, incorporation of feedback effects in stress tests, institutionalization of macroprudential policy responses to alarming stress-test results, and information exchange for better cross-border supervision.Web of Science48414311

Central banks and banking regulation: historical legacies and institutional challenges

Jordana and Rosas explore the different institutional models for the regulation of banks and financial services that exist worldwide. They find, on the one hand, many countries in which central banks have significant responsibilities for the regulation of the banking system, but also, on the other hand, countries where banking regulation is completely separated from the central bank, remaining in the hands of the executive or being delegated to an independent agency without subordination to the central bank. The chapter identifies the distribution of institutional regulatory models around the world, the possibility of path dependence in the choice of these models, and the relationship between these institutional models and the objectives of price stability and bank stability in different economies