Implicit Kernel Meta-Learning Using Kernel Integral Forms

Meta-learning algorithms have made significant progress in the context of meta-learning for image classification but less attention has been given to the regression setting. In this paper we propose to learn the probability distribution representing a random feature kernel that we wish to use within kernel ridge regression (KRR). We introduce two instances of this meta-learning framework, learning a neural network pushforward for a translation-invariant kernel and an affine pushforward for a neural network random feature kernel, both mapping from a Gaussian latent distribution. We learn the parameters of the pushforward by minimizing a meta-loss associated to the KRR objective. Since the resulting kernel does not admit an analytical form, we adopt a random feature sampling approach to approximate it. We call the resulting method Implicit Kernel Meta-Learning (IKML). We derive a meta-learning bound for IKML, which shows the role played by the number of tasks T, the task sample size n, and the number of random features M. In particular the bound implies that M can be the chosen independently of T and only mildly dependent on n. We introduce one synthetic and two real-world meta-learning regression benchmark datasets. Experiments on these datasets show that IKML performs best or close to best when compared against competitive meta-learning methods

Burden, duration and costs of hospital bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis in England per winter, 2010/11-2015/16.

BACKGROUND: Bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis put hospitals under pressure each winter. In England, the National Health Service (NHS) has monitored the winter situation for all acute trusts since 2010/11. AIM: To estimate the burden, duration and costs of hospital bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis in winter. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of routinely collected time-series data of bed closures due to diarrhoea and vomiting was conducted for the winters 2010/11 to 2015/16. Two key issues were addressed by imputing non-randomly missing values at provider level, and filtering observations to a range of dates recorded in all six winters. The lowest and highest values imputed were taken to represent the best- and worst-case scenarios. Bed-days were costed using NHS reference costs, and potential staff absence costs were based on previous studies. FINDINGS: In the best-to-worst case, a median of 88,000-113,000 beds were closed due to gastroenteritis each winter. Of these, 19.6-20.4% were unoccupied. On average, 80% of providers were affected, and had closed beds for a median of 15-21 days each winter. Hospital costs of closed beds were £5.7-£7.5 million, which increased to £6.9-£10.0 million when including staff absence costs due to illness. CONCLUSIONS: The median number of hospital beds closed due to acute gastroenteritis per winter was equivalent to all general and acute hospital beds in England being unavailable for a median of 0.88-1.12 days. Costs for hospitals are high but vary with closures each winter

Oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in men who have sex with men: prevalence and lack of anogenital concordance.

To estimate the prevalence of oral detectable human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA in HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) attending a sexual health clinic in London and concordance with anogenital HPV infection. Such data are important to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of oral HPV and the potential use of vaccines to prevent oropharyngeal cancers

Assessing dengue vaccination impact: Model challenges and future directions.

In response to the sharp rise in the global burden caused by dengue virus (DENV) over the last few decades, the WHO has set out three specific key objectives in its disease control strategy: (i) to estimate the true burden of dengue by 2015; (ii) a reduction in dengue mortality by at least 50% by 2020 (used as a baseline); and (iii) a reduction in dengue morbidity by at least 25% by 2020. Although various elements will all play crucial parts in achieving this goal, from diagnosis and case management to integrated surveillance and outbreak response, sustainable vector control, vaccine implementation and finally operational and implementation research, it seems clear that new tools (e.g. a safe and effective vaccine and/or effective vector control) are key to success. The first dengue vaccine was licensed in December 2015, Dengvaxia® (CYD-TDV) developed by Sanofi Pasteur. The WHO has provided guidance on the use of CYD-TDV in endemic countries, for which there are a variety of considerations beyond the risk-benefit evaluation done by regulatory authorities, including public health impact and cost-effectiveness. Population-level vaccine impact and economic and financial aspects are two issues that can potentially be considered by means of mathematical modelling, especially for new products for which empirical data are still lacking. In December 2014 a meeting was convened by the WHO in order to revisit the current status of dengue transmission models and their utility for public health decision-making. Here, we report on the main points of discussion and the conclusions of this meeting, as well as next steps for maximising the use of mathematical models for vaccine decision-making

Restructuring and hospital care: Sub-national trends, differentials, and their impacts; New Zealand from 1981

An analysis of the "nation's health" is the central concern of this study. Its genesis was a detailed, technical, time-series research on regional and ethnic differentials in health in New Zealand. But as this work progressed it became increasingly evident that the results of this more narrow analysis could make a wider contribution to the development of a knowledge-base on health trends and on the impacts of policy on these. In a sense, the analysis provides a demographic audit of health trends over the last two decades. The focus here is different from that in most other studies on restructuring of the New Zealand health system as their concern was either to review in detail the rewriting of policy per se, and attendant structural and institutional changes (Fougere 2001), or to identify how these changes relate to changes in mortality (Blakely et al. 2008). The research question reported here was, instead, to analyse the most crucial of health outcomes, „how long we live and how often we end up in hospital‟, identified in the earlier quotation, to report patterns and trends in hospital use nationally and sub-nationally over the period under review, and to determine the degrees to which various sub-populations benefited, or did not benefit, from these changes. The analysis focuses on the hospital sector in the system, but it will also show relations between this and other sectors, formal (e.g. primary health) and less formal (notably the healthcare afforded sickness and invalid beneficiaries). Thus two questions are addressed: 1. whether or not the nation‟s population health improved over the period and; 2. whether or not there was a convergence in patterns of health gain across its constituent sub-populations defined geographically and ethnically. This monograph deals with sub-national differences in health in New Zealand over a period of substantial socio-economic restructuring and associated radical changes in health policy, health systems and their related information systems (see also, Text Appendix A). It complements the recently published analysis of national ethnic trends in mortality (Blakely et al. 2004), but differs in several critical respects. That study reviewed health status by emphasising aetiologies and causes of death. In contrast, the present analysis focuses on actuarial dimensions of both mortality and morbidity and on health as measured by functional capacity rather than the disease orientated „burden of disease‟. It goes beyond health status issues to look at the system itself, to assess whether health policy outcomes were generated more through efficiency-gain (economic or service delivery, such as those resulting in a convergence sub-nationally of supply and demand effects), or through health gains, or ideally, by both. To do this, and as a by-product to analyse changes in health status and the system in an era of restructuring, innovative methodologies and composite time-series indices combining the two dimensions of a „nation‟s health‟, needing hospital care and longevity, have had to be custom-designed. To achieve this objective, the ensuing analysis is often technical, and may introduce concepts that are unfamiliar to some readers. In order to look at possible inequalities of outcome, comparisons were made between regions and ethnic groups, as well as age-groups and genders, and as a result, in places the analysis becomes rather complex

Systematic review and evidence synthesis of non-cervical human papillomavirus-related disease health systems costs and quality of life estimates

BACKGROUND: Many economic evaluations of human papillomavirus vaccination should ideally consider multiple disease outcomes, including anogenital warts, respiratory papillomatosis and non-cervical cancers (eg, anal, oropharyngeal, penile, vulvar and vaginal cancers). However, published economic evaluations largely relied on estimates from single studies or informal rapid literature reviews. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of articles up to June 2016 to identify costs and utility estimates admissible for an economic evaluation from a single-payer healthcare provider's perspective. Meta-analyses were performed for studies that used same utility elicitation tools for similar diseases. Costs were adjusted to 2016/2017 US$. RESULTS: Sixty-one papers (35 costs; 24 utilities; 2 costs and utilities) were selected from 10 742 initial records. Cost per case ranges were US$124-US$883 (anogenital warts), US$6912-US$52 579 (head and neck cancers), US$12 936-US$51 571 (anal cancer), US$17 524-34 258 (vaginal cancer), US$14 686-US$28 502 (vulvar cancer) and US$9975-US$27 629 (penile cancer). The total cost for 14 adult patients with recurrent respiratory papillomatosis was US$137 601 (one paper).Utility per warts episode ranged from 0.651 to 1 (12 papers, various utility elicitation methods), with pooled mean EQ-5D and EQ-VAS of 0.86 (95% CI 0.85 to 0.87) and 0.74 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.75), respectively. Fifteen papers reported utilities in head and neck cancers with range 0.29 (95% CI 0.0 to 0.76) to 0.94 (95% CI 0.3 to 1.0). Mean utility reported ranged from 0.5 (95% CI 0.4 to 0.61) to 0.65 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.75) (anal cancer), 0.59 (95% CI 0.54 to 0.64) (vaginal cancer), 0.65 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.70) (vulvar cancer) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.84) (penile cancer). CONCLUSIONS: Differences in values reported from each paper reflect variations in cancer site, disease stages, study population, treatment modality/setting and utility elicitation methods used. As patient management changes over time, corresponding effects on both costs and utility need to be considered to ensure health economic assumptions are up-to-date and closely reflect the case mix of patients

Group Meritocratic Fairness in Linear Contextual Bandits

We study the linear contextual bandit problem where an agent has to select one candidate from a pool and each candidate belongs to a sensitive group. In this setting, candidates⧠rewards may not be directly comparable between groups, for example when the agent is an employer hiring candidates from different ethnic groups and some groups have a lower reward due to discriminatory bias and/or social injustice. We propose a notion of fairness that states that the agent* policy is fair when it selects a candidate with highest relative rank, which measures how good the reward is when compared to candidates from the same group. This is a very strong notion of fairness, since the relative rank is not directly observed by the agent and depends on the underlying reward model and on the distribution of rewards. Thus we study the problem of learning a policy which approximates a fair policy under the condition that the contexts are independent between groups and the distribution of rewards of each group is absolutely continuous. In particular, we design a greedy policy which at each round constructs a ridge regression estimate from the observed context-reward pairs, and then computes an estimate of the relative rank of each candidate using the empirical cumulative distribution function. We prove that, despite its simplicity and the lack of an initial exploration phase, the greedy policy achieves, up to log factors and with high probability, a fair pseudo-regret of order √dT after T rounds, where d is the dimension of the context vectors. The policy also satisfies demographic parity at each round when averaged over all possible information available before the selection. Finally, we use simulated settings and experiments on the US census data to show that our policy achieves sub-linear fair pseudo-regret also in practice

Mathematical investigations of gas flare constituents in oil producing regions of Malaysia

Air pollution due to gas–flaring is a major concern in most region of the world. The short and long term effect of the massive air pollution on the life form within the area requires urgent attention because of the health implication. This research examines the impact of air pollutants in oil producing region of Malaysia using remotely sensed satellite data. The satellite data set was obtained from CALIPSO, MODIS and AIRS. A mathematical software (MATLAB) was used to analyse the results. For Sulphur dioxide (SO2), Kemaman had the highest rate of pollution (0.075DU), then Petronas (0.074DU), Kertih (0.067 DU), Port (0.065DU), Rapids (0.052DU), Melaka 1 (0.032DU) respectively. For Carbon dioxide (CO2), Kertih and Petronas was the most polluted with (382.33ppmv), Melaka 1 and Port had (382.27ppmv), Rapid had (382.04ppmv) and Kemaman (381.53ppmv) respectively. For Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), Petronas had the highest mean value with (311.18mol/cm2), Melaka 1 (243.4mol/cm2), Port (201.5mol/cm2), Rapids (183.3mol/cm2), Kertih (117.73mol/cm2), Kemaman (95.7mol/cm2) respectively. For Ozone (O3), the stations with the highest rate of concentration were Rapids, Melaka 1, Petronas, Kertih and Kemaman with (252.43E+2mol/cm2). Mathematical projections were made to capture the dilemma- people in this region might encounter in the nearest future

The age profile of respiratory syncytial virus burden in preschool children of low- and middle-income countries: a semi-parametric, meta-regression approach

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are among the primary causes of death for children under 5 years of age worldwide. A notable challenge with many of the upcoming prophylactic interventions against RSV is their short duration of protection, making the age profile of key interest to the design of prevention strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We leverage the RSV data collected on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in a systematic review in combination with flexible generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to characterize the age burden of RSV incidence, hospitalization, and hospital-based case fatality rate (hCFR). Due to the flexible nature of GAMMs, we estimate the peak, median, and mean incidence of infection to inform discussions on the ideal "window of protection" of prophylactic interventions. In a secondary analysis, we reestimate the burden of RSV in all low- and middle-income countries. The peak age of community-based incidence is 4.8 months, and the mean and median age of infection is 18.9 and 14.7 months, respectively. Estimating the age profile using the incidence coming from hospital-based studies yields a slightly younger age profile, in which the peak age of infection is 2.6 months and the mean and median age of infection are 15.8 and 11.6 months, respectively. More severe outcomes, such as hospitalization and in-hospital death have a younger age profile. Children under 6 months of age constitute 10% of the population under 5 years of age but bear 20% to 29% of cases, 28% to 39% of hospitalizations, and 38% to 50% of deaths. On an average year, we estimate 28.23 to 31.34 million cases of RSV, between 2.95 to 3.35 million hospitalizations, and 16,835 to 19,909 in-hospital deaths in low, lower- and upper middle-income countries. In addition, we estimate 17,254 to 23,875 deaths in the community, for a total of 34,114 to 46,485 deaths. Globally, evidence shows that community-based incidence may differ by World Bank Income Group, but not hospital-based incidence, probability of hospitalization, or the probability of in-hospital death (p ≤ 0.01, p = 1, p = 0.86, 0.63, respectively). Our study is limited mainly due to the sparsity of the data, especially for low-income countries (LICs). The lack of information for some populations makes detecting heterogeneity between income groups difficult, and differences in access to care may impact the reported burden. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated an approach to synthesize information on RSV outcomes in a statistically principled manner, and we estimate that the age profile of RSV burden depends on whether information on incidence is collected in hospitals or in the community. Our results suggest that the ideal prophylactic strategy may require multiple products to avert the risk among preschool children

Potential population-level effectiveness of one-dose HPV vaccination in low-income and middle-income countries: a mathematical modelling analysis

BACKGROUND: Given the accumulating evidence that one-dose vaccination could provide high and sustained protection against human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and related diseases, we examined the population-level effectiveness and efficiency of one-dose HPV vaccination of girls compared with two-dose vaccination, using mathematical modelling. METHODS: In this mathematical modelling study, we used HPV-ADVISE LMIC, an individual-based transmission-dynamic model independently calibrated to four epidemiologically diverse low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs; India, Nigeria, Uganda, and Viet Nam). We parameterised and calibrated the model using sexual behaviour and epidemiological data identified from international population-based datasets and the literature. All base-case vaccination scenarios start in 2023 with the nonavalent vaccine and assumed 80% vaccination coverage with one or two doses. We assumed that two doses of vaccine provide 100% efficacy against vaccine-type infections and a lifelong duration of protection. We examined a non-inferior vaccination scenario for one dose compared with two doses, pessimistic scenarios of lower one-dose vaccine efficacy (85%) or a shorter duration of protection (ie, 20 or 30 years), and the effectiveness of a mitigation scenario in which schedules would switch from one dose to two doses. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying vaccination coverage. We used three outcomes: the relative reduction in cervical cancer incidence, the number of cervical cancers averted, and the number of vaccine doses needed to prevent one cervical cancer. FINDINGS: Assuming non-inferior vaccine characteristics for one dose compared with two doses, the model projections show that two-dose or one-dose routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years (with a multi-age cohort vaccination of girls aged 10-14 years) would avert 12·0 million (80% UI 9·5-14·5) cervical cancers in India, 4·7 million (3·4-5·8) in Nigeria, 2·3 million (1·9-2·6) in Uganda, and 0·4 million (0·2-0·5) in Viet Nam over 100 years. Under pessimistic assumptions of lower one-dose efficacy (85%) or a shorter duration of protection (ie, 30 years), one-dose routine vaccination would avert 69% (61-80) to 94% (92-96) of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose routine vaccination. However, when assuming a duration of protection of 20 years, one-dose routine vaccination would avert substantially fewer cervical cancers (ie, 35% [26-44] to 69% [65-71] of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose routine vaccination). A switch from one-dose to two-dose routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years, with a one-dose catch-up of girls aged 10-14 years, 5 years after the start of the vaccination programme, could mitigate potential losses in cervical cancer prevention from a short one-dose duration of protection (averting 92% [83-98] to 99% [97-100]) of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose routine vaccination). One-dose routine vaccination would result in fewer doses needed to prevent one cervical cancer than two-dose routine vaccination, even if the duration of protection is as low as 20 years. Finally, for countries with two-dose routine vaccination, adding one-dose multi-age cohort vaccination in the first year would provide similar benefits as a two-dose multi-age cohort vaccination, and would be more efficient even under the pessimistic assumptions of lower one-dose vaccine efficacy or duration of protection. INTERPRETATION: One-dose routine vaccination could avert most of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose vaccination while being more efficient, provided the duration of one-dose protection is greater than 20-30 years (depending on the LMIC). The doses saved by introducing one-dose routine vaccination could offer the opportunity to vaccinate girls before they age out of the vaccination window of 9-14 years and, potentially, to vaccinate boys or older age groups. FUNDING: Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Digital Research Alliance of Canada, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation