Excess open solar magnetic flux from satellite data: 1. Analysis of the third perihelion Ulysses pass

We use the third perihelion pass by the Ulysses spacecraft to illustrate and investigate the “flux excess” effect, whereby open solar flux estimates from spacecraft increase with increasing heliocentric distance. We analyze the potential effects of small-scale structure in the heliospheric field (giving fluctuations in the radial component on timescales smaller than 1 h) and kinematic time-of-flight effects of longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow. We show that the flux excess is explained by neither very small-scale structure (timescales 1 day) solar wind speed variations on the frozen-in heliospheric field. We show that averaging over an interval T (that is long enough to eliminate structure originating in the heliosphere yet small enough to avoid cancelling opposite polarity radial field that originates from genuine sector structure in the coronal source field) is only an approximately valid way of allowing for these effects and does not adequately explain or account for differences between the streamer belt and the polar coronal holes

Excess open solar magnetic flux from satellite data: 2. A survey of kinematic effects

We investigate the “flux excess” effect, whereby open solar flux estimates from spacecraft increase with increasing heliocentric distance. We analyze the kinematic effect on these open solar flux estimates of large-scale longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow, with particular emphasis on correcting estimates made using data from near-Earth satellites. We show that scatter, but no net bias, is introduced by the kinematic “bunching effect” on sampling and that this is true for both compression and rarefaction regions. The observed flux excesses, as a function of heliocentric distance, are shown to be consistent with open solar flux estimates from solar magnetograms made using the potential field source surface method and are well explained by the kinematic effect of solar wind speed variations on the frozen-in heliospheric field. Applying this kinematic correction to the Omni-2 interplanetary data set shows that the open solar flux at solar minimum fell from an annual mean of 3.82 × 1016 Wb in 1987 to close to half that value (1.98 × 1016 Wb) in 2007, making the fall in the minimum value over the last two solar cycles considerably faster than the rise inferred from geomagnetic activity observations over four solar cycles in the first half of the 20th century

An adaptive, hanging-node, discontinuous isogeometric analysis method for the first-order form of the neutron transport equation with discrete ordinate (SN) angular discretisation

In this paper a discontinuous, hanging-node, isogeometric analysis (IGA) method is developed and applied to the first-order form of the neutron transport equation with a discrete ordinate (SN) angular discretisation in two-dimensional space. The complexities involved in upwinding across curved element boundaries that contain hanging-nodes have been addressed to ensure that the scheme remains conservative. A robust algorithm for cycle-breaking has also been introduced in order to develop a unique sweep ordering of the elements for each discrete ordinates direction. The convergence rate of the scheme has been verified using the method of manufactured solutions (MMS) with a smooth solution. Heuristic error indicators have been used to drive an adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) algorithm to take advantage of the hanging-node discretisation. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated for three test cases. The first is a homogeneous square in a vacuum with varying mean free path and a prescribed extraneous unit source. The second test case is a radiation shielding problem and the third is a 3×3 “supercell” featuring a burnable absorber. In the final test case, comparisons are made to the discontinuous Galerkin finite element method (DGFEM) using both straight-sided and curved quadratic finite elements

Adaption of evolutionary programming to the prediction of solar flares

Adapting evolutionary programming to prediction of solar flare

Solar wind and heavy ion properties of interplanetary coronal mass ejections

Magnetic field and plasma properties of the solar wind measured in near-Earth space are a convolution of coronal source conditions and in-transit processes which take place between the corona and near-Earth space. Elemental composition and heavy ion charge states, however, are not significantly altered during transit to Earth and thus such properties can be used to diagnose the coronal source conditions of the solar wind observed in situ. We use data from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft to statistically quantify differences in the coronal source properties of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). Magnetic clouds, ICMEs which contain a magnetic flux-rope signature, display heavy ion properties consistent with significantly hotter coronal source regions than non-cloud ICMEs. Specifically, magnetic clouds display significantly elevated ion charge states, suggesting they receive greater heating in the low corona. Further dividing ICMEs by speed, however, shows this effect is primarily limited to fast magnetic clouds and that in terms of heavy ion properties, slow magnetic clouds are far more similar to non-cloud ICMEs. As such, fast magnetic clouds appear distinct from other ICME types in terms of both ion charge states and elemental composition. ICME speed, rather ICME type, correlates with helium abundance and iron charge state, consistent with fast ICMEs being heated through the more extended corona. Fast ICMEs also tend to be embedded within faster ambient solar wind than slow ICMEs, though this could be partly the result of in-transit drag effects. These signatures are discussed in terms of spatial sampling of ICMEs and from fundamentally different coronal formation and release processes

A Multi-signal Variant for the GPU-based Parallelization of Growing Self-Organizing Networks

Among the many possible approaches for the parallelization of self-organizing networks, and in particular of growing self-organizing networks, perhaps the most common one is producing an optimized, parallel implementation of the standard sequential algorithms reported in the literature. In this paper we explore an alternative approach, based on a new algorithm variant specifically designed to match the features of the large-scale, fine-grained parallelism of GPUs, in which multiple input signals are processed at once. Comparative tests have been performed, using both parallel and sequential implementations of the new algorithm variant, in particular for a growing self-organizing network that reconstructs surfaces from point clouds. The experimental results show that this approach allows harnessing in a more effective way the intrinsic parallelism that the self-organizing networks algorithms seem intuitively to suggest, obtaining better performances even with networks of smaller size.Comment: 17 page

Predicting space climate change

The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest‐fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long‐term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near‐Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300‐year record

The Rapidly Fading Optical Afterglow of GRB 980519

GRB 980519 had the most rapidly fading of the well-documented GRB afterglows, consistent with t^{-2.05 +/- 0.04} in BVRI as well as in X-rays during the two days in which observations were made. We report VRI observations from the MDM 1.3m and WIYN 3.5m telescopes, and we synthesize an optical spectrum from all of the available photometry. The optical spectrum alone is well fitted by a power law of the form nu^{-1.20 +/- 0.25}, with some of the uncertainty due to the significant Galactic reddening in this direction. The optical and X-ray spectra together are adequately fitted by a single power law nu^{-1.05 +/- 0.10}. This combination of steep temporal decay and flat broad-band spectrum places a severe strain on the simplest afterglow models involving spherical blast waves in a homogeneous medium. Instead, the rapid observed temporal decay is more consistent with models of expansion into a medium of density n(r) proportional to r^{-2}, or with predictions of the evolution of a jet after it slows down and spreads laterally. The jet model would relax the energy requirements on some of the more extreme GRBs, of which GRB 980519 is likely to be an example because of its large gamma-ray fluence and faint host galaxy.Comment: 13 pages, submitted to ApJ Letter

Toward autonomous spacecraft

Ways in which autonomous behavior of spacecraft can be extended to treat situations wherein a closed loop control by a human may not be appropriate or even possible are explored. Predictive models that minimize mean least squared error and arbitrary cost functions are discussed. A methodology for extracting cyclic components for an arbitrary environment with respect to usual and arbitrary criteria is developed. An approach to prediction and control based on evolutionary programming is outlined. A computer program capable of predicting time series is presented. A design of a control system for a robotic dense with partially unknown physical properties is presented

Influence of water temperature on the efficacy of diquat and endothall versus curlyleaf pondweed

determine the impact of water temperature on the efficacy of the contact herbicides diquat (6,7-dihydrodipyrido [1,2- α:2’,1’-c] pyrazinediium ion) and endothall (7-oxabicyclo [2.2.1] heptane-2,3-dicarboxylic acid) for control of the exotic nuisance species curlyleaf pondweed (Potamogeton crispus L.) across a range of water temperatures