Sets of Priors Reflecting Prior-Data Conflict and Agreement

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge. This has the advantage that prior-data conflict sensitivity can be modelled: Ranges of posterior inferences should be larger when prior and data are in conflict. We propose a new method for generating prior sets which, in addition to prior-data conflict sensitivity, allows to reflect strong prior-data agreement by decreased posterior imprecision.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, In: Paulo Joao Carvalho et al. (eds.), IPMU 2016: Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, Eindhoven, The Netherland

Expectations of fragment decay from highly excited nuclei

The statistical model is used to illustrate the consequences of a successive binary decay mechanism as the initial nuclear excitation is pushed towards the limits of stability. The partition of the excitation energy between light and heavy fragments is explicitly calculated, as are the consequences of the decay of the primary light fragments to particle-bound residual nuclei which would be observed experimentally. The test nucleus 100 44 Ru is considered at initial excitations of 100, 200, 400, and 800 MeV. Exit channels of n, p, and α; and 100 clusters of 3 ≤ Z ≤ 20 ≤ 4, 6 ≤ A ≤ 48 are considered from all nuclides in the deexcitation cascade. The total primary and final cluster yields are shown versus Z and initial excitation. The primary versus final yields are also shown individually for 12C, 26Mg, and 48Ca. We show how multifragmentation yields will change with the excitation energy due to a successive binary decay mechanism. Measurements that may be prone to misinterpretation are discussed, as are those that should be representative of initial nucleus excitation

Dynamical treatment of Fermi motion in a microscopic description of heavy ion collisions

A quasiclassical Pauli potential is used to simulate the Fermi motion of nucleons in a molecular dynamical simulation of heavy ion collisions. The thermostatic properties of a Fermi gas with and without interactions are presented. The inclusion of this Pauli potential into the quantum molecular dynamics (QMD) approach yields a model with well defined fermionic ground states, which is therefore also able to give the excitation energies of the emitted fragments. The deexcitation mechanisms (particle evaporation and multifragmentation) of the new model are investigated. The dynamics of the QMD with Pauli potential is tested by a wide range of comparisons of calculated and experimental double-differential cross sections for inclusive p-induced reactions at incident energies of 80 to 160 MeV. Results at 256 and 800 MeV incident proton energy are presented as predictions for completed experiments which are as yet unpublished

Balance Sheet Effects in Currency Crises: Evidence from Brazil

In third generation currency crises models, balance sheet losses from currency depreciations propagate the crises into the real sector of the economy. To test these models, we built a firmlevel database that allowed us to measure currency mismatches around the 2002 Brazilian currency crisis. We found that between 2001 and 2003, firms with large currency mismatches just before the crisis reduced their investment rates 8.1 percentage points more than other publicly held firms. We also showed that the currency depreciation increased exporters revenue, but those with currency mismatches reduced investments 12.5 percentage points more than other exporters. These estimated reductions in investment are economically very significant, underscoring the importance of negative balance sheet effects in currency crises. Jel Codes:F32; F34; G31; G32Investment; Balance sheets; Currency crises; Hedge; Financial constraints.

Balance Sheet Effects in Currency Crises: Evidence from Brazil

"Third-generation currency crises models" argue that capital losses from exchange-rate depreciation propagate the crises to the productive sector. To test these models, we use a firm-level dataset that allows us to measure currency mismatches around the 2002 Brazilian currency crisis. We find that, between 2001 and 2003, firms that shortly before the crisis had large currency mismatches decreased their investment rates by 8.1 percentual points, relatively to other public firms. Moreover, we show that the currency depreciation implied large competitive gains for the exporters, and yet the investment of exporters with large currency mismatches fell by 12.5 percentual points, relatively to other exporters. The estimated falls in investment are economically very relevant, thereby corroborating the relevance of third generation models negative balance sheet effects.

Effect of Location Accuracy and Shadowing on the Probability of Non-Interfering Concurrent Transmissions in Cognitive Ad Hoc Networks

Cognitive radio ad hoc systems can coexist with a primary network in a scanning-free region, which can be dimensioned by location awareness. This coexistence of networks improves system throughput and increases the efficiency of radio spectrum utilization. However, the location accuracy of real positioning systems affects the right dimensioning of the concurrent transmission region. Moreover, an ad hoc connection may not be able to coexist with the primary link due to the shadowing effect. In this paper we investigate the impact of location accuracy on the concurrent transmission probability and analyze the reliability of concurrent transmissions when shadowing is taken into account. A new analytical model is proposed, which allows to estimate the resulting secure region when the localization uncertainty range is known. Computer simulations show the dependency between the location accuracy and the performance of the proposed topology, as well as the reliability of the resulting secure region