A region of influence approach to predicting flow duration curves within ungauged catchments

International audienceThe development of regionalised hydrological models or procedures for estimating flow duration statistics has been the subject of international research since the 1970s. Historically these models have been based on multivariate statistical models that relate flow statistics to the physical and climatic characteristics of a catchment. The a priori classification of catchments has often been a component of this analysis. This paper discusses the background to the development of such models, with particular emphasis on the United Kingdom; it describes a new region of influence approach to estimating flow duration statistics and compares the performance of this method with current multivariate regression based methods for estimating flow duration statistics within the United Kingdom. Keywords: hydrological models, regionalisation, river networks, water resources, flow duration curves, region of influence</p

A new approach to estimating Mean Flow in the UK

Traditionally, the estimation of Mean Flow (MF) in ungauged catchments has been approached using conceptual water balance models or empirical formulae relating climatic inputs to stream flow. In the UK, these types of models have difficulty in predicting MF in low rainfall areas because the conceptualisation of soil moisture behaviour and its relationship with evaporation rates used is rather simplistic. However, it is in these dry regions where the accurate estimation of flows is most critical to effective management of a scarce resource. A novel approach to estimating MF, specifically designed to improve estimation of runoff in dry catchments, has been developed using a regionalisation of the Penman drying curve theory. The dynamic water balance style Daily Soil Moisture Accounting (DSMA) model operates at a daily time step, using inputs of precipitation and potential evaporation and simulates the development of soil moisture deficits explicitly. The model has been calibrated using measured MFs from a large data set of catchments in the United Kingdom. The performance of the DSMA model is superior to existing established steady state and dynamic water-balance models over the entire data set considered and the largest improvement is observed in very low rainfall catchments. It is concluded that the performance of all models in high rainfall areas is likely to be limited by the spatial representation of rainfall.</p> <p style='line-height: 20px;'><b>Keywords: </b>hydrological models, regionalisation, water resources, mean flow, runoff, water balance, Penman drying curve, soil moisture model</p

The GSFC scientific data storage problem

Scientific data storage problems of telemetry tape

Calculation of isotope shifts and relativistic shifts in CI, CII, CIII and CIV

We present an accurate ab initio method of calculating isotope shifts and relativistic shifts in atomic spectra. We test the method on neutral carbon and three carbon ions. The relativistic shift of carbon lines may allow them to be included in analyses of quasar absorption spectra that seek to measure possible variations in the fine structure constant, alpha, over the lifetime of the Universe. Carbon isotope shifts can be used to measure isotope abundances in gas clouds: isotope abundances are potentially an important source of systematic error in the alpha-variation studies. These abundances are also needed to study nuclear reactions in stars and supernovae, and test models of chemical evolution of the Universe

Capacity of English NHS hospitals to monitor quality in infection prevention and control using a new European framework: a multilevel qualitative analysis

Objective:(1) To assess the extent to which current English national regulations/policies/guidelines and local hospital practices align with indicators suggested by a European review of effective strategies for infection prevention and control (IPC); (2) to examine the capacity of local hospitals to report on the indicators and current use of data to inform IPC management and practice. Design A national and local-level analysis of the 27 indicators was conducted. At the national level, documentary review of regulations/policies/guidelines was conducted. At the local level data collection comprised: (a) review of documentary sources from 14 hospitals, to determine the capacity to report performance against these indicators; (b) qualitative interviews with 3 senior managers from 5 hospitals and direct observation of hospital wards to find out if these indicators are used to improve IPC management and practice. Setting 2 acute English National Health Service (NHS) trusts and 1 NHS foundation trust (14 hospitals). Participants 3 senior managers from 5 hospitals for qualitative interviews. Primary and secondary outcome measures As primary outcome measures, a ‘Red-Amber-Green’ (RAG) rating was developed reflecting how well the indicators were included in national documents or their availability at the local organisational level. The current use of the indicators to inform IPC management and practice was also assessed. The main secondary outcome measure is any inconsistency between national and local RAG rating results. Results National regulations/policies/guidelines largely cover the suggested European indicators. The ability of individual hospitals to report some of the indicators at ward level varies across staff groups, which may mask required improvements. A reactive use of staffing-related indicators was observed rather than the suggested prospective strategic approach for IPC management. Conclusions For effective patient safety and infection prevention in English hospitals, routine and proactive approaches need to be developed. Our approach to evaluation can be extended to other country settings

Martian atmospheric O₃ retrieval development for the NOMAD-UVIS spectrometer

The composition of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols is a highly variable and poorly constrained component of the martian atmosphere, and by affecting martian climate and UV surface dose, represents a key parameter in the assessment of suitability for martian habitability. The ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO) carries the Open University (OU) designed Ultraviolet and VIsible Spectrometer (UVIS) instrument as part of the Belgian-led Nadir and Occultation for MArs Discovery (NOMAD) spectrometer suite. NOMAD will begin transmitting science observations of martian surface and atmosphere back-scattered UltraViolet (UV) and visible radiation in Spring 2018, which will be processed to derive spatially and temporally averaged atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations, intended to provide a better understanding of martian atmospheric photo-chemistry and dynamics, and will also improve models of martian atmospheric chemistry, climate and habitability. Work presented here illustrates initial development and testing of the OU’s new retrieval algorithm for determining O3 and aerosol concentrations from the UVIS instrument

A multi-object spectral imaging instrument

We have developed a snapshot spectral imaging system which fits onto the side camera port of a commercial inverted microscope. The system provides spectra, in real time, from multiple points randomly selected on the microscope image. Light from the selected points in the sample is directed from the side port imaging arm using a digital micromirror device to a spectrometer arm based on a dispersing prism and CCD camera. A multi-line laser source is used to calibrate the pixel positions on the CCD for wavelength. A CMOS camera on the front port of the microscope allows the full image of the sample to be displayed and can also be used for particle tracking, providing spectra of multiple particles moving in the sample. We demonstrate the system by recording the spectra of multiple fluorescent beads in aqueous solution and from multiple points along a microscope sample channel containing a mixture of red and blue dye

Responses to supplementation by dairy cows given low pasture allowances in different seasons 2. Milk production

Two factorial experiments were designed to determine the effects of stage of lactation, and season of the year, on cow responses to supplementary feeding. These experiments were conducted over consecutive years with 128 high genetic merit multiparous Holstein-Friesian cows in early, mid and late lactation in spring, summer, autumn and winter. At each stage of lactation, and in each season of the year, cows were offered a restricted pasture allowance (25 to 35 kg dry matter (DM) per cow per day), either unsupplemented (control) or with supplement at 50 MJ metabolizable energy (ME) per cow per day in experiment 1 and 80 MJ ME per cow per day in experiment 2. The two supplements given in both years were rolled maize grain (MG) and a mixture of foods formulated to nutritionally balance the diet (BR). In experiment 2, another treatment, of a generous pasture allowance (60 to 75 kg DM per cow per day) (AP), was imposed on an additional group of early lactation cows during each season. Direct milk solids (MS) (milk fat plus milk protein) responses in experiment 1 to MG were 169, 279, 195 and 251 g MS per cow per day in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively, while those to BR were 107, 250, 192, 289 g MS per cow per day. In experiment 2, however, milk solids responses to both supplements during spring were slightly below the control treatment, with values similar to those in experiment 1 in summer and autumn for cows on the BR but not the MG supplement. Milk solids responses to supplementary foods were largest during seasons of the year when the quantity and quality of pasture on offer resulted in the lowest milk solids yield from unsupplemented cows. When carry-over effects of feeding MG and BR on milk solids production were detected, they were only about half the magnitude of the direct effects. Serum urea concentrations were higher in control cows than those offered MG with a similar effect for BR in all but summer in experiment 1, while serum glucose concentrations were highest in winter and lowest in summer. The most important factor influencing milk solids responses was the relative food deficit (RFD) represented by the decline in milk solids yield of the respective control groups after,changing from a generous pasture allowance to restricted allowance when the feeding treatments were imposed. Total milk solids responses (direct and carry-over) to supplements were greatest when severe food restrictions, relative to the cows' current food demand, resulted in large reductions in milk solids yield of the control groups. The RFD was the best predictor of milk solids response to supplementary foods. Therefore, it is likely that cows are most responsive to supplementary foods during or immediately after the imposition of a severe food restriction

Opportunities for system level improvement in antibiotic use across the surgical pathway

Optimizing antibiotic prescribing across the surgical pathway (before, during, and after surgery) is a key aspect of tackling important drivers of antimicrobial resistance and simultaneously decreasing the burden of infection at the global level. In the UK alone, 10 million patients undergo surgery every year, which is equivalent to 60% of the annual hospital admissions having a surgical intervention. The overwhelming majority of surgical procedures require effectively limited delivery of antibiotic prophylaxis to prevent infections. Evidence from around the world indicates that antibiotics for surgical prophylaxis are administered ineffectively, or are extended for an inappropriate duration of time postoperatively. Ineffective antibiotic prophylaxis can contribute to the development of surgical site infections (SSIs), which represent a significant global burden of disease. The World Health Organization estimates SSI rates of up to 50% in postoperative surgical patients (depending on the type of surgery), with a particular problem in low- and middle-income countries, where SSIs are the most frequently reported healthcare-associated infections. Across European hospitals, SSIs alone comprise 19.6% of all healthcare-acquired infections. Much of the scientific research in infection management in surgery is related to infection prevention and control in the operating room, surgical prophylaxis, and the management of SSIs, with many studies focusing on infection within the 30-day postoperative period. However it is important to note that SSIs represent only one of the many types of infection that can occur postoperatively. This article provides an overview of the surgical pathway and considers infection management and antibiotic prescribing at each step of the pathway. The aim was to identify the implications for research and opportunities for system improvement