Population health and the economy: Mortality and the Great Recession in Europe

We analyze the evolution of mortality‐based health indicators in 27 European countries before and after the start of the Great Recession. We find that in the countries where the crisis has been particularly severe, mortality reductions in 2007–2010 were considerably bigger than in 2004–2007. Panel models adjusted for space‐invariant and time‐invariant factors show that an increase of 1 percentage point in the national unemployment rate is associated with a reduction of 0.5% (p < .001) in the rate of age‐adjusted mortality. The pattern of mortality oscillating procyclically is found for total and sex‐specific mortality, cause‐specific mortality due to major causes of death, and mortality for ages 30–44 and 75 and over, but not for ages 0–14. Suicides appear increasing when the economy decelerates—countercyclically—but the evidence is weak. Results are robust to using different weights in the regression, applying nonlinear methods for detrending, expanding the sample, and using as business cycle indicator gross domestic product per capita or employment‐to‐population ratios rather than the unemployment rate. We conclude that in the European experience of the past 20 years, recessions, on average, have beneficial short‐term effects on mortality of the adult population.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142224/1/hec3495_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142224/2/hec3495.pd

Postnatal trajectories of maternal depressive symptoms: Postpartum antecedents and differences in toddler adjustment

Infants are uniquely vulnerable to maternal depression’s noxious effects, but few longitudinal studies have tried to identify discrete postnatal trajectories of maternal depressive symptoms (MDS) beginning in infancy. This study extends evidence of heterogeneous change in postnatal MDS by examining their cross‐contextual antecedents in infancy and their consequences for children’s early behavior problems and language skills in late toddlerhood. A community sample of mother–child dyads (N = 235, 72% Caucasian) was assessed when children were 7, 15, and 33 months old. Mothers reported their socioeconomic status (SES), social support, marital relationship quality, family dysfunction, parenting stress, and infants’ functional regulatory problems at 7 months postpartum, and children’s internalizing and externalizing symptoms at 33 months. Children completed a receptive vocabulary assessment at 33 months in the lab. Latent class growth analysis identified three postnatal MDS trajectory classes that fit the data best: low‐decreasing, moderate, and increasing. Psychosocial measures at seven months postpartum primarily predicted membership to these postnatal trajectory classes, which subsequently differed in children’s internalizing, externalizing, and receptive vocabulary in late toddlerhood, controlling for family SES and functional regulatory problems in infancy. We discuss salient antecedents and consequences of postnatal depression for mothers and their offspring.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154920/1/imhj21843_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154920/2/imhj21843.pd

Macro-Economic Conditions and Infant Health: A Changing Relationship for Black and White Infants in the United States

We study whether the relationship between the state unemployment rate at the time of conception and infant health, infant mortality and maternal characteristics in the United States has changed over the years 1980-2004. We use microdata on births and deaths for years 1980-2004 and find that the relationship between the state unemployment rate at the time of conception and infant mortality and birthweight changes over time and is stronger for blacks than whites. For years 1980-1989 increases in the state unemployment rate are associated with a decline in infant mortality among blacks, an effect driven by mortality from gestational development and birth weight, and complications of placenta while in utero. In contrast, state economic conditions are unrelated to black infant mortality in years 1990-2004 and white infant mortality in any period, although effects vary by cause of death. We explore potential mechanisms for our findings and, including mothers younger than 18 in the analysis, uncover evidence of age-related maternal selection in response to the business cycle. In particular, in years 1980-1989 an increase in the unemployment rate at the time of conception is associated with fewer babies born to young mothers. The magnitude and direction of the relationship between business cycles and infant mortality differs by race and period. Age-related selection into motherhood in response to the business cycle is a possible explanation for this changing relationship