GIS-gestuetzte Analyse globaler Muster anthropogener Waldschaedigung. Eine sektorale Anwendung des Syndromkonzepts

The geographical analysis of a Syndrome is performed in several steps integrating GIS with concepts of fuzzy logic and qualitative reasoning. In the first step a syndrome specific network of interactions is formulated by analysing case studies, theories and expert assessments. Based on this systemic representation the natural and socio-economic conditions under which the syndrome specific mechanisms can be active are identified. This evaluation is called the disposition of a region towards a specific Syndrome. The resulting indicator can be used as an early warning indicator for the possible germination of a non-sustainable development. Based on the constituting elements of the Syndrome, a complex indicator for the intensity of the active Syndrome is derived in the next step of the analysis. This indicator assesses the critical states in the dynamical evolution of the non-sustainable patterns of civilisation nature interaction. Complete Syndrome analyses are performed for the main Syndromes of deforestation. The resulting spatial distribution of the combined dispositions and intensities of the different Syndromes present a unique global assessment describing the current damage and future regional threats to forests by their underlying global cause-effect patterns of civilisation-nature interaction. Specially the assessment of the threat by coupling of momentarily active and potentially active cause-effect patterns provides a previously not achieved systematic insight into the complex interaction of different patterns of global deforestation and forest degradation. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RR 5801(71) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Globaler Wandel: GIS-gestuetzte Erfassung und Modellierung der Syndromdynamik

Available from TIB Hannover: F98B1511+a / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEBundesministerium fuer Bildung, Wissenschaft, Forschung und Technologie, Bonn (Germany)DEGerman

Syndromes of global change

A novel transdisciplinary description of the mega-process called "Global Change" in terms of functional patterns ("Syndromes") is presented. This approach to environmental analysis is inspired by medical sciences, where syndromes are perceived as typical combinations of pertinent co-factors. Sixteen main syndromes are identi ed as the subdynamics generating the world-wide environment and development process with all its negative aspects and impacts. The analysis relies on a specific semi-qualitative methodology, which brings together elements from complex systems theory, fuzzy logic and expert-judgment evaluations. The concept is illustrated by in-depth treatment and comparison of the syndromes Sahel" and "Green Revolution". As a corollary of the syndrome approach, a simple operational de nition o