Commodity-industry classificationproxy: A correspondence table between SITC revision 2 and ISIC revision 3

The correspondence table is one of the important tools in categorizing existing records into different perspective. It helps to understand the pattern of various economic activities from single source of data. Nevertheless, most of the existing correspondence tables have been focusing more on the latest classification and neglect the correspondence for the older version. Since some analysis would require longer series of data, therefore it is necessary to create a correspondence table for the earlier version of classification. This paper devoted to create a correspondence table between SITC Revision 2 and ISIC Revision 3 using a proxy method. The proxy is done using the SITC Rev.2 – SITC Rev.3 correspondence table and the SITC Rev.3 – ISIC Rev.3 correspondence table. This method has capable to directly find an industrial match for more than 98 percent of commodities under SITC Rev.3. For remaining commodities which industrial category cannot be matched directly, the identification was done automatically based on the closest code.Commodity, Industry SITC Rev.2, SITC Rev.3, ISIC Rev.3, correspondence table

Commodity-industry classificationproxy: A correspondence table between SITC revision 2 and ISIC revision 3

The correspondence table is one of the important tools in categorizing existing records into different perspective. It helps to understand the pattern of various economic activities from single source of data. Nevertheless, most of the existing correspondence tables have been focusing more on the latest classification and neglect the correspondence for the older version. Since some analysis would require longer series of data, therefore it is necessary to create a correspondence table for the earlier version of classification. This paper devoted to create a correspondence table between SITC Revision 2 and ISIC Revision 3 using a proxy method. The proxy is done using the SITC Rev.2 – SITC Rev.3 correspondence table and the SITC Rev.3 – ISIC Rev.3 correspondence table. This method has capable to directly find an industrial match for more than 98 percent of commodities under SITC Rev.3. For remaining commodities which industrial category cannot be matched directly, the identification was done automatically based on the closest code

Assessing Thailand’s financial vulnerability : An early warning approach

This paper intends to assess financial vulnerability in Thailand through the construction of a financial vulnerability indicator (FVI). This early warning system has been developed using the signals approach proposed by Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), followed by composite indicator construction. The period under study spans from January 2000 through to December 2016. Our empirical findings indicate that exports has the lowest noise-to-signal ratio (0.13), followed by real GDP (0.15) and house price index (0.20). These suggest that financial crises are usually preceded by a weakening in exports, a slowdown in the economy and a decline in house price. For Thailand, four major financial episodes are successfully outlined during the study period, demonstrating the effectiveness of an early warning system in financial vulnerability forecasting

Financial Vulnerability and Economic Dynamics in Malaysia

This study attempts to develop a financial vulnerability indicator serving as a composite indicator for the state of financial vulnerability. The indicator was constructed from 10 variables of macroeconomic, financial and property market by extracting a common vulnerability component through the dynamic approximate factor model. On the feedback and amplification effects, the outcome revealed that financial vulnerability shock catalysed significant negative effects on economic activity in a high-vulnerability regime, while the impact was negligible in periods of low vulnerability. This study highlighted the usefulness of composite indicators as an early warning mechanism to gauge vulnerabilities in the Malaysian financial system

Assessing Thailand’s financial vulnerability: An early warning approach

This paper intends to assess financial vulnerability in Thailand through the construction of a financial vulnerability indicator (FVI). This early warning system has been developed using the signals approach proposed by Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), followed by composite indicator construction. The period under study spans from January 2000 through to December 2016. Our empirical findings indicate that exports has the lowest noise-to-signal ratio (0.13), followed by real GDP (0.15) and house price index (0.20). These suggest that financial crises are usually preceded by a weakening in exports, a slowdown in the economy and a decline in house price. For Thailand, four major financial episodes are successfully outlined during the study period, demonstrating the effectiveness of an early warning system in financial vulnerability forecasting

An ECM Analysis of Thai Tourism Demand in Malaysia

Tourism industry is one of the important service industries that play a crucial role in the development of Malaysian economy. Thailand has been ranked among the top five tourist generating countries for Malaysia since the last decade. This paper intends to determine factors affecting Thai tourism demand in Malaysia from the macroeconomic perspective by utilizing quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2013Q4. The Thai tourism demand model is estimated using the error-correction model and a battery of diagnostic tests were carried out to ensure the robustness of the model. The empirical results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between Thai tourism demand and the specified explanatory variables, which are Thai real income, real travel cost and exchange rate. Specifically, higher Thai real income will reduce Thai tourist to Malaysia, while higher real travel cost and stronger currency attract more Thai visitor to Malaysia. As a conclusion, this paper has achieved its aim to determine the factors affecting Thai tourism demand in Malaysia

Forecasting performance of the P-star model: The case of Indonesia

This paper investigated the linkage between money supply and inflation in Indonesia by adopting the PStar model. Both the simple-sum and Divisia monetary aggregates were employed to compare their relative performance in terms of inflation forecasting. The empirical findings revealed that the P-Star model performed well in tracking inflation in Indonesia. In addition, the Divisia M2 model returned better results with greater prediction information on inflationary movement in Indonesia

Macroeconomic perspective on constructing financial vulnerability indicator in China

This paper attempts to develop a financial vulnerability indicator for China as a barometer for the state of financial vulnerability in the Chinese financial market, possibly for real-time application. Twelve variables from different sectors are utilised to extract a common vulnerability component using a dynamic approximate factor model. Through the implementation of a Markovswitching Bayesian vector autoregression (MSBVAR) model, the empirical results indicate that a high-vulnerability episode is associated with substantially lower economic activity, but a low-vulnerability episode does not incur substantial changes in economic activity. Notably, the constructed indicator can serve as a real-time early warning system to signify vulnerabilities in the Chinese financial market. First published online 20 November 202

The new Keynesian trade-off between output and inflation: Time series based evidence from Russia

As oil exports remain the main source of income for the Russian economy, the ongoing plunging of global oil prices is causing severe adverse supply shock and cost-push inflation in the country. The recent attempts at stabilisation policies by the policymakers have not been very successful in stabilising both national output and inflation. This has brought about concern over the relevance of policymaker interventions in the Russian economy. We investigate this matter by applying Asai’s (1999) model. Our empirical results indicated that the trade-off between output and inflation in the short run in Russia is inversely associated with the mean rate of inflation, which supports the new Keynesian view. As such, stabilisation policies, particularly monetary policies adopted by policymakers, are extremely crucial in moderating the short-run trade-off between output and inflation with respect to the recent financial crisis