Entry in the ADHD drugs market: Welfare impact of generics and me-toos

Recent decades have seen a growth in treatments for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) including many branded and generic drugs. In the early 2000's, new drug entry dramatically altered market shares. We estimate a demand system for ADHD drugs and assess the welfare impact of new drugs. We find that entry induced large welfare gains by reducing prices of substitute drugs, and by providing alternative delivery mechanisms for existing molecules. Our results suggest that the success of follow-on patented drugs may come from unanticipated innovations like delivery mechanisms, a factor ignored by proposals to retard new follow-on drug approvals

Energy Dissipation in Interstellar Cloud Collisions

We present a study of the kinetic energy dissipation in interstellar cloud collisions. The main aim is to understand the dependence of the elasticity (defined as the ratio of the final to the initial kinetic energy of the clouds) on the velocity and mass ratio of the colliding clouds, magnetic field strength, and gas metallicity for head-on collisions. The problem has been studied both analytically and via numerical simulations. We have derived handy analytical relationships that well approximate the analogous numerical results. The main findings of this work are: (i) the kinetic energy dissipation in cloud collisions is minimum (i.e. the collision elasticity is maximum) for a cloud relative velocity $v_r \simeq 30 km s^{-1}$; (ii) the above minimum value is proportional $Z L_c^2$, where $Z$ is the metallicity and $L_c$ is the cloud size: the larger is $Z L_c^2$ the more dissipative (i.e. inelastic) the collision will be; (iii) in general, we find that the energy dissipation decreases when the magnetic field strength, and mass ratio of the clouds are increased and the metallicity is decreased, respectively. We briefly discuss the relevance of this study to the global structure of the interstellar medium and to galaxy formation and evolution.Comment: 16 pages, aasms LaTeX, 7 figures. ApJ, accepte

Why the Realist-Instrumentalist Debate about Rational Choice Rests on a Mistake

Within the social sciences, much controversy exists about which status should be ascribed to the rationality assumption that forms the core of rational choice theories. Whilst realists argue that the rationality assumption is an empirical claim which describes real processes that cause individual action, instrumentalists maintain that it amounts to nothing more than an analytically set axiom or ‘as if’ hypothesis which helps in the generation of accurate predictions. In this paper, I argue that this realist-instrumentalist debate about rational choice theory can be overcome once it is realised that the rationality assumption is neither an empirical description nor an ‘as if’ hypothesis, but a normative claim

Auxin Input Pathway Disruptions Are Mitigated by Changes in Ausin Biosynthetic Gene Expression in Arabidopsis

Auxin is a phytohormone involved in cell elongation and division. Levels of indole-3-acetic acid (IAA), the primary auxin, are tightly regulated through biosynthesis, degradation, sequestration, and transport. IAA is sequestered in reversible processes by adding amino acids, polyol or simple alcohols, or sugars, forming IAA conjugates, or through a two-carbon elongation forming indole-3-butyric acid. These sequestered forms of IAA alter hormone activity. To gain a better understanding of how auxin homeostasis is maintained, we have generated Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis tlnaliana) mutants that combine disruptions in the pathways, converting IAA conjugates and indole-3-butyric acid to free IAA. These mutants show phenotypes indicative of low auxin levels, including delayed germination, abnormal vein patterning, and decreased apical dominance. Root phenotypes include changes in root length, root branching, and root hair growth. IAA levels are reduced in the cotyledon tissue but not meristems or hypocotyls. In the combination mutants, auxin biosynthetic gene expression is increased, particularly in the YUCCA/Tryptophan Aminotransferase of Arabidopsisl pathway, providing a feedback mechanism that allows the plant to compensate for changes in IAA input pathways and maintain cellular homeostasis

Peculiar Features of the Velocity Field of OB Associations and the Spiral Structure of the Galaxy

Some of the peculiar features of the periodic velocity-field structure for OB associations can be explained by using the model of Roberts and Hausman (1984), in which the behavior of a system of dense clouds is considered in a perturbed potential. The absence of statistically significant variations in the azimuthal velocity across the Carina arm, probably, results from its sharp increase behind the shock front, which is easily blurred by distance errors. The existence of a shock wave in the spiral arms and, at the same time, the virtually free motion of OB associations in epicycles can be reconciled in the model of particle clouds with a mean free path of 0.2-2 kpc. The velocity field of OB associations exhibits two appreciable nonrandom deviations from an ideal spiral pattern: a 0.5-kpc displacement of the Cygnus- and Carina-arm fragments from one another and a weakening of the Perseus arm in quadrant III. However, the identified fragments of the Carina, Cygnus, and Perseus arms do not belong to any of the known types of spurs.Comment: 14 pages, 3 postscript figures, to be published in Astronomy Letter

Employment Expectations and Gross Flows by Type of Work Contract

There is growing interest in understanding firms’ temporary and permanent employment practices and how institutional changes shape them. Using data on Spanish establishments, we examine: (a) how employers adjust temporary and permanent job and worker flows to prior employment expectations, and (b) how the 1994 and 1997 labour reforms promoting permanent employment affected establishments’ employment practices. Generally, establishments’ prior employment expectations are realized through changes in all job and worker flows. However, establishments uniquely rely on temporary hires as a buffer to confront diminishing long-run employment expectations. None of the reforms significantly affected establishments’ net temporary or permanent employment flows.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40032/3/wp646.pd

A panel analysis of UK industrial company failure

We examine the failure determinants for large quoted UK industrials using a panel data set comprising 539 firms observed over the period 1988-93. The empirical design employs data from company accounts and is based on Chamberlain’s conditional binomial logit model, which allows for unobservable, firm-specific, time-invariant factors associated with failure risk. We find a noticeable degree of heterogeneity across the sample companies. Our panel results show that, after controlling for unobservables, lower liquidity measured by the quick assets ratio, slower turnover proxied by the ratio of debtors turnover, and profitability were linked to the higher risk of insolvency in the analysis period. The findings appear to support the proposition that the current cash-flow considerations, rather than the future prospects of the firm, determined company failures over the 1990s recession

Accurate Determination of Comet and Asteroid Orbits Leading to Collision With Earth

Movements of the celestial bodies in our solar system inspired Isaac Newton to work out his profound laws of gravitation and motion; with one or two notable exceptions, all of those objects move as Newton said they would. But normally harmonious orbital motion is accompanied by the risk of collision, which can be cataclysmic. The Earth s moon is thought to have been produced by such an event, and we recently witnessed magnificent bombardments of Jupiter by several pieces of what was once Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. Other comets or asteroids may have met the Earth with such violence that dinosaurs and other forms of life became extinct; it is this possibility that causes us to ask how the human species might avoid a similar catastrophe, and the answer requires a thorough understanding of orbital motion. The two red square flags with black square centers displayed are internationally recognized as a warning of an impending hurricane. Mariners and coastal residents who know the meaning of this symbol and the signs evident in the sky and ocean can act in advance to try to protect lives and property; someone who is unfamiliar with the warning signs or chooses to ignore them is in much greater jeopardy. Although collisions between Earth and large comets or asteroids occur much less frequently than landfall of a hurricane, it is imperative that we learn to identify the harbingers of such collisions by careful examination of an object s path. An accurate determination of the orbit of a comet or asteroid is necessary in order to know if, when, and where on the Earth s surface a collision will occur. Generally speaking, the longer the warning time, the better the chance of being able to plan and execute action to prevent a collision. The more accurate the determination of an orbit, the less likely such action will be wasted effort or, what is worse, an effort that increases rather than decreases the probability of a collision. Conditions necessary for a collision to occur are discussed, and warning times for long-period comets and near-Earth asteroids are presented

Closed-Form Bayesian Inferences for the Logit Model via Polynomial Expansions

Articles in Marketing and choice literatures have demonstrated the need for incorporating person-level heterogeneity into behavioral models (e.g., logit models for multiple binary outcomes as studied here). However, the logit likelihood extended with a population distribution of heterogeneity doesn't yield closed-form inferences, and therefore numerical integration techniques are relied upon (e.g., MCMC methods). We present here an alternative, closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model, which we obtain by approximating the logit likelihood via a polynomial expansion, and then positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a flexible family that is now conjugate and integrable. For problems where the response coefficients are independent, choosing the Gamma distribution leads to rapidly convergent closed-form expansions; if there are correlations among the coefficients one can still obtain rapidly convergent closed-form expansions by positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a Multivariate Gamma distribution. The solution then comes from the moment generating function of the Multivariate Gamma distribution or in general from the multivariate heterogeneity distribution assumed. Closed-form Bayesian inferences, derivatives (useful for elasticity calculations), population distribution parameter estimates (useful for summarization) and starting values (useful for complicated algorithms) are hence directly available. Two simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figures, corrected some typos. Appears in Quantitative Marketing and Economics vol 4 (2006), no. 2, 173--20