Are Errors in Official U.S. Budget Receipts Forecasts Just Noise?

Existing evidence suggests that U.S. Government budget receipts forecasts are unbiased and efficient. Our study is an attempt to examine the veracity of these findings. The time series framework employed in this study is distinguished from previous work in three ways. First, we build a model that explicitly admits serial correlation in the residuals by allowing for autoregressive, moving-average, serial correlation. Second, we employ the nonparametric Monte-Carlo bootstrap to free ourselves from reliance on asymptotic distribution theory which is suspect given the short data series available for this study. Third, we control for errors in the macroeconomic and financial assumptions used to produce the U.S. Government's budget forecasts. We find that the U.S. Government's annual, one-year ahead, budget receipts forecasts for fiscal years 1963 through 2003 are biased and inefficient. In addition, we find that these forecasts exhibit serial correlation in their errors and thus do not efficiently exploit all available information. Finally, we find evidence that is consistent with strategic bias that may reflect the political goals of the Administration in power. Working Paper 07-2

Understanding the values of Christian organisations: a case study of across (1972-2005) using the organisational culture theory of Edgar Schein

This thesis addresses the research question: Is Schein’s theory useful for understanding the values of Christian organisations? The research method used is a case study of ‘Across’. Across is a Christian mission organisation working in South Sudan, which was founded in 1972 after the Addis Ababa Agreement brought to an end the First Sudanese Civil War (1955-1972). Schein’s theory of organisational culture states that ‘the essence of a group's culture is its pattern of shared, basic taken-for-granted assumptions’. In this thesis these ‘basic assumptions’ are referred to by using the term organisational values. According to Schein organisational values manifest themselves at the level of ‘observable artifacts’ and ‘shared espoused values’. Schein then sees that the task of the researcher is to ‘decipher’ these two elements so as to identify the actual, underlying organisational values. After reflecting theologically on the appropriateness of using such a theory in a Christian context the research method then leads to a two stage process being followed. Firstly, to analyse the organisational values of Across from the founding of Across in 1972 until 2005, when the Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005) came to an end. The steps in this first stage of the process are to identify the actual organisational values of Across, to look at the factors that caused these values to emerge in Across, and then to track how significant an influence these organisational values were on the organisational behaviour of Across. The Across organisational values identified and selected for study can be summarised in the terms: partnering; integrating (integral mission); focusing on ‘the South’, and identifying with the Sudanese. The second stage in the process is to evaluate how useful Schein’s theory has been in understanding Across, and to assess whether Schein’s theory would therefore be useful in understanding other Christian organisations. The conclusion of this research is that Schein’s theory of organisational culture is useful in understanding the values of Christian organisations, and that this understanding can enable the leaders of Christian organisations to lead more effectively

Quantum magnetism with ultracold molecules

This article gives an introduction to the realization of effective quantum magnetism with ultracold molecules in an optical lattice, reviews experimental and theoretical progress, and highlights future opportunities opened up by ongoing experiments. Ultracold molecules offer capabilities that are otherwise difficult or impossible to achieve in other effective spin systems, such as long-ranged spin-spin interactions with controllable degrees of spatial and spin anisotropy and favorable energy scales. Realizing quantum magnetism with ultracold molecules provides access to rich many-body behaviors, including many exotic phases of matter and interesting excitations and dynamics. Far-from-equilibrium dynamics plays a key role in our exposition, just as it did in recent ultracold molecule experiments realizing effective quantum magnetism. In particular, we show that dynamical probes allow the observation of correlated many-body spin physics, even in polar molecule gases that are not quantum degenerate. After describing how quantum magnetism arises in ultracold molecules and discussing recent observations of quantum magnetism with polar molecules, we survey prospects for the future, ranging from immediate goals to long-term visions.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures, 1 table. Review articl

Structural characterization of YBa(2)Cu(3)O(7)/Y(2)O(3) composite films

Using 4-circle x-ray diffraction and transmission electron microscopy we have studied the microstructure and in-plane orientation of the phases present in thin film composite mixtures of YBa(2)Cu(3)O(7) and Y(2)O(3). We see a high degree of in-plane orientation and have verified a previous prediction for the in-plane order of Y(2)BaCuO(5) on (110) MgO. Transmission electron microscopy shows the composite films to be a mixture of two phases, with YBCO grain sizes of 1 micron. We have also compared our observations of the in-plane order to the predictions of a modified near coincidence site lattice model.Comment: To be published in Journal of Materials Research, (4 pages, 4 jpeg figures

The effects of recessions across demographic groups

The burdens of a recession are not spread evenly across demographic groups. As the public and media noticed, from the start of the current recession in December 2007 through June 2009 men accounted for more than three-quarters of net job losses. Other differences have garnered less attention but are just as interesting. During the same period, the employment of single people fell at more than twice the rate that it did for married people and the decline for black workers was one and a half times that for white workers. To provide a more complete understanding of the effect of recessions, this paper examines the different effects of this and previous recessions across a range of demographic categories: sex, marital status, race, age, and education level.Recessions ; Demography

A journal ranking for the ambitious economist

The authors devise an "ambition-adjusted" journal ranking based on citations from a short list of top general-interest journals in economics. Underlying this ranking is the notion that an ambitious economist wishes to be acknowledged not only in the highest reaches of the profession, but also outside his or her subfield. In addition to the conceptual advantages that they find in their ambition adjustment, they see two main practical advantages: greater transparency and a consistent treatment of subfields. They compare their 2008 ranking based on citations from 2001 to 2007 with a ranking for 2002 based on citations from 1995 to 2001.Research ; Economics ; Economists

Explaining the fuel protests

We describe and analyse the fuel protests in the UK in September and November 2000. We draw on theories of social movements to explain the success of the first of these protests and the failure of the second. We show how the loose, network forms of organisation contributed to the success in September, and the attempts to impose more formal organisations helped to cause the failure in November. We also show how the success of the protests depended on the articulation of the aims of the protestors with dominant social forces in British politics, in particular the oil companies, the police, and the mass media

The 30/20 GHz communications system functional requirements

The characteristics of 30/20 GHz usage in satellite systems to be used in support of projected communication requirements of the 1990's are defined. A requirements analysis which develops projected market demand for satellite services by general and specialized carriers and an analysis of the impact of propagation and system constraints on 30/20 GHz operation are included. A set of technical performance characteristics for the 30/20 GHz systems which can serve the resulting market demand and the experimental program necessary to verify technical and operational aspects of the proposed systems is also discussed

Managing the risk of loans with basis risk: sell, hedge, or do nothing?

Individual loans contain a bundle of risks including credit risk and interest rate risk. This paper focuses on the general issue of banks’ management of these various risks in a model with costly loan monitoring and convex taxes. The results suggest that if the hedge is not subject to basis risk, then hedging dominates a strategy of “do nothing.” Whether hedging dominates loan sales depends on whether it induces reduced monitoring, the net benefit of monitoring, and the reduced tax burden of eliminating all risk via selling. If the hedge is subject to basis risk, then a “do nothing” strategy may dominate the hedging and loan sales strategy for risk neutral banks. A number of empirical implications follow from the analytical and numerical results in the paper.Loan sales ; Hedging (Finance) ; Risk management