Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Multiple Change-point Model

This paper proposes a new Bayesian multiple change-point model which is based on the hidden Markov approach. The Dirichlet process hidden Markov model does not require the specification of the number of change-points a priori. Hence our model is robust to model specification in contrast to the fully parametric Bayesian model. We propose a general Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm which only needs to sample the states around change-points. Simulations for a normal mean-shift model with known and unknown variance demonstrate advantages of our approach. Two applications, namely the coal-mining disaster data and the real United States Gross Domestic Product growth, are provided. We detect a single change-point for both the disaster data and US GDP growth. All the change-point locations and posterior inferences of the two applications are in line with existing methods.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-BA910 in the Bayesian Analysis (http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ba) by the International Society of Bayesian Analysis (http://bayesian.org/

3-D SPH simulations of colliding winds in eta Carinae

We study colliding winds in the superluminous binary eta Carinae by performing three-dimensional, Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations. For simplicity, we assume both winds to be isothermal. We also assume that wind particles coast without any net external forces. We find that the lower density, faster wind from the secondary carves out a spiral cavity in the higher density, slower wind from the primary. Because of the phase-dependent orbital motion, the cavity is very thin on the periastron side, whereas it occupies a large volume on the apastron side. The model X-ray light curve using the simulated density structure fits very well with the observed light curve for a viewing angle of i=54 degrees and phi=36 degrees, where i is the inclination angle and phi is the azimuth from apastron.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, To be published in Proceedings of IAU Symposium 250: Massive Stars as Cosmic Engines, held in Kauai, Hawaii, USA, Dec 2007, edited by F. Bresolin, P.A. Crowther & J. Puls (Cambridge University Press

Emergent bipartiteness in a society of knights and knaves

We propose a simple model of a social network based on so-called knights-and-knaves puzzles. The model describes the formation of networks between two classes of agents where links are formed by agents introducing their neighbours to others of their own class. We show that if the proportion of knights and knaves is within a certain range, the network self-organizes to a perfectly bipartite state. However, if the excess of one of the two classes is greater than a threshold value, bipartiteness is not observed. We offer a detailed theoretical analysis for the behaviour of the model, investigate its behaviou r in the thermodynamic limit, and argue that it provides a simple example of a topology-driven model whose behaviour is strongly reminiscent of a first-order phase transitions far from equilibrium.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figure

Test of Guttmann and Enting's conjecture in the eight-vertex model

We investigate the analyticity property of the partially resummed series expansion(PRSE) of the partition function for the eight-vertex model. Developing a graphical technique, we have obtained a first few terms of the PRSE and found that these terms have a pole only at one point in the complex plane of the coupling constant. This result supports the conjecture proposed by Guttmann and Enting concerning the ``solvability'' in statistical mechanical lattice models.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures, RevTe

A second look at the toric h-polynomial of a cubical complex

We provide an explicit formula for the toric $h$-contribution of each cubical shelling component, and a new combinatorial model to prove Clara Chan's result on the non-negativity of these contributions. Our model allows for a variant of the Gessel-Shapiro result on the $g$-polynomial of the cubical lattice, this variant may be shown by simple inclusion-exclusion. We establish an isomorphism between our model and Chan's model and provide a reinterpretation in terms of noncrossing partitions. By discovering another variant of the Gessel-Shapiro result in the work of Denise and Simion, we find evidence that the toric $h$-polynomials of cubes are related to the Morgan-Voyce polynomials via Viennot's combinatorial theory of orthogonal polynomials.Comment: Minor correction

Non mean-field behavior of the contact process on scale-free networks

We present an analysis of the classical contact process on scale-free networks. A mean-field study, both for finite and infinite network sizes, yields an absorbing-state phase transition at a finite critical value of the control parameter, characterized by a set of exponents depending on the network structure. Since finite size effects are large and the infinite network limit cannot be reached in practice, a numerical study of the transition requires the application of finite size scaling theory. Contrary to other critical phenomena studied previously, the contact process in scale-free networks exhibits a non-trivial critical behavior that cannot be quantitatively accounted for by mean-field theory.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, published versio

Marangoni shocks in unobstructed soap-film flows

It is widely thought that in steady, gravity-driven, unobstructed soap-film flows, the velocity increases monotonically downstream. Here we show experimentally that the velocity increases, peaks, drops abruptly, then lessens gradually downstream. We argue theoretically and verify experimentally that the abrupt drop in velocity corresponds to a Marangoni shock, a type of shock related to the elasticity of the film. Marangoni shocks induce locally intense turbulent fluctuations and may help elucidate the mechanisms that produce two-dimensional turbulence away from boundaries.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, published in PR