Reporting conditionals with modals

Conditionals and modals work in tandem in some instances of practical reasoning, or decision making. Consider the following example (from Kratzer 2012): a. I want to become a mayor. b. (q) I will become a mayor only if (p) I go to the pub. c. Therefore, I should go to the pub. Given what the cogniser wants (a) and the relevant circumstances (b), the conclusion that the cogniser goes to the pub comes out as necessary. Hence, the presence of the necessity modal should in (c). Indeed, given the context of (a), the necessity modal in (c) is simply a reflection of the necessity of p for q, which is overtly represented by the use of the ‘only if p, q’ construction. This chapter looks into whether indirect reports of conditionals – in particular, indirect reports which involve the use of a modal verb – are sensitive to the necessity of p for q in cases where necessity is not overtly represented in a conditional, as in ‘if p, q’ formulations. We report on two online experiments into the relation between (i) perceived necessity or sufficiency of the truth of a conditional antecedent for the truth of the consequent, and (ii) the formulation of an indirect report of a conditional with necessity or possibility modals (have to, should, could). In Experiment 1, the ‘necessity/sufficiency of p for q’ variable was manipulated by contextually altering the number of alternative antecedents (e.g. Cummins et al. 1991; Thompson 1994; Politzer 2003). It was found that modals used in indirect reports of ‘if p, q’ conditionals co-vary with the number of alternative antecedents in predictable ways. This suggests that modals used in indirect reports of ‘if p, q’ conditionals may be a diagnostic for biconditional versus material interpretations of conditionals. The aim of Experiment 2 was to find out whether the results of Experiment 1 could be replicated in contexts which lower/eliminate the believability of the conditionals. It was found that manipulating the believability variable has no reliable effect on the results

Reporting conditionals with modals

Conditionals and modals work in tandem in some instances of practical reasoning, or decision making. Consider the following example (from Kratzer 2012): a. I want to become a mayor. b. (q) I will become a mayor only if (p) I go to the pub. c. Therefore, I should go to the pub. Given what the cogniser wants (a) and the relevant circumstances (b), the conclusion that the cogniser goes to the pub comes out as necessary. Hence, the presence of the necessity modal should in (c). Indeed, given the context of (a), the necessity modal in (c) is simply a reflection of the necessity of p for q, which is overtly represented by the use of the ‘only if p, q’ construction. This chapter looks into whether indirect reports of conditionals – in particular, indirect reports which involve the use of a modal verb – are sensitive to the necessity of p for q in cases where necessity is not overtly represented in a conditional, as in ‘if p, q’ formulations. We report on two online experiments into the relation between (i) perceived necessity or sufficiency of the truth of a conditional antecedent for the truth of the consequent, and (ii) the formulation of an indirect report of a conditional with necessity or possibility modals (have to, should, could). In Experiment 1, the ‘necessity/sufficiency of p for q’ variable was manipulated by contextually altering the number of alternative antecedents (e.g. Cummins et al. 1991; Thompson 1994; Politzer 2003). It was found that modals used in indirect reports of ‘if p, q’ conditionals co-vary with the number of alternative antecedents in predictable ways. This suggests that modals used in indirect reports of ‘if p, q’ conditionals may be a diagnostic for biconditional versus material interpretations of conditionals. The aim of Experiment 2 was to find out whether the results of Experiment 1 could be replicated in contexts which lower/eliminate the believability of the conditionals. It was found that manipulating the believability variable has no reliable effect on the results

The algorithm for Alzheimer risk assessment based on APOE promoter polymorphisms

Background: Over the past two decades, the APOE gene and its polymorphisms have been among the most studied risk factors of Alzheimer disease (AD) development; yet, there are discrepancies between various studies regarding their impact. For this reason, the evaluation of the APOE genotype has not been included in the current European Federation of Neurological Societies guidelines for AD diagnosis and management. This aim of this study was to add to this discussion by assessing the possible influence of multiple polymorphisms in the promoter region of the APOE gene and genotypes of its allele E on the risk for dementia. Methods: We performed a comprehensive analysis of APOE gene polymorphisms, assessed the detected genotypes and correlated molecular findings with serum apolipoprotein E concentrations. The study comprised 110 patients with AD and 110 age-matched healthy individuals from the Polish population. Results: Four polymorphisms of the APOE gene had minor allele frequency exceeding 5 % and were included in the analysis: −491A/T (rs449647), −427T/C (rs769446), −219T/G (rs405509) in the promoter region and +113G/C (rs440446) in intron 1. A protective effect of the −219G allele on AD development was observed. Also, the −491T and −219G alleles were found to be underrepresented in the carriers of the APOE E4 variant. On the basis of the genotype and linkage disequilibrium studies, a relative score was attributed to given genotypes with respect to the estimated probability of their protective effects against AD, giving rise to the ‘preventive score’. This ‘preventive score’, based on the total sums of the relative scores, expresses the protective effect deriving from the synergistic action of individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms. The ‘preventive score’ was identified as an independent predictive factor. Conclusions: We propose a novel, more complex approach to AD risk assessment based on the additive effect of multiple polymorphic loci within the APOE promoter region, which on their own may have too weak an impact to reach the level of significance. This has potentially practical implications, as it may help to improve the informative potential of APOE testing in a clinical setting. Subsequent studies of the proposed system in large, multi-ethnic cohorts are necessary for its validation and to assess its potential practical value for clinical applications.</p

Cryptic diversity of Italian bats and the role of the Apennine refugium in the phylogeography of the western Palaearctic

The Mediterranean Basin is typified by a high degree of species rarity and endemicity that reflects its position, geomorphology, and history. Although the composition and cryptic variation of the bat faunas from the Iberian and Balkan Peninsulas are relatively well studied, data from the Apennine Peninsula are still incomplete. This is a significant shortfall, given the presumed refugial role of this region in the context of Europe's Pleistocene phylogeography. It was thus our aim to supplement the phylogeographical information from the region, generating mitochondrial sequences and reviewing published data, with a focus on the dispersal and diversification patterns characterizing taxa with different life strategies. Site-specific lineages were ascertained, especially in the genera Myotis and Plecotus and amongst the pipistrelloid bats, representing speciose radiations. It was possible to observe disjunct ranges with patches isolated south of the Alps in several species, corresponding with evolution of elevated genetic distance. The genetic subdivision within the continuous Italian range into northern and southern lineages in several taxa indicated the possible past substructure of the refugium. Several shared lineages between the Apennine and Ibero-Maghrebian regions were observed, indicating connectivity between the Adriatic and Atlantic-Mediterranean refuges, and raising questions as to which region these clades originated from and what was the direction of faunal exchange between them. In contrast to Europe's other two main refugia, the Apennine Peninsula is a smaller region with simpler phylogeographical patterns. Nevertheless, our results support the idea that the region generated novel lineages. Whereas diversification in sedentary bats may have been driven through the generation of in situ adaptations, specialization, and niche differentiation, the emergence of species with a tramp strategy could have entailed the utilization of faunal drift and the taxon cycle