Structural vulnerability of Nepalese Pagoda temples

Nepal is located in one of the most severe earthquake prone areas of the world, lying between collisions of Indian to the Eurasian plate, moving continuously, resulting in frequent devastating earthquakes within this region. Moreover, different authors refer mention that the accumulated slip deficit (central seismic gap) is likely to produce large earthquakes in the future. Also, the analysis of the available information of previous earthquakes indicates the potential damage that can occurs in unreinforced traditional masonry structures in future earthquakes. Most of the Nepalese pagoda temples were erected following very simple rules and construction details to accomplish with seismic resistance requirement, or even without any consideration for seismic resistance, during the period of Malla dynasty (1200-1768). Presently, conservation and restoration of ancient monuments are one of the major concerns in order to preserve our built heritage, transferring it to the future generations. The present paper is devoted to outline particular structural fragility characteristics in the historic Nepalese pagoda temples which affect their seismic performance. Moreover, based on the parametric analysis identified structural weaknesses/fragilities of pagoda topology, the associated traditional building technology and constructional details

Term Structure Movements Implicit in Option Prices

This paper analyzes how including options in the estimation of a dynamic term structure model impacts the way it captures term structure movements. Two versions of a multi-factor Gaussian model are compared: One adopting only bonds data, and the other adopting a joint dataset of bonds and options. Term structure movements extracted under each version behave distinctly, with slope and curvature presenting higher mean reversion rates when options are adopted. The composition of bond risk premium is also affected, with considerably more weight attributed to the level factor when options are included. The inclusion of options in the estimation of the dynamic model also improves the pricing of out-of-sample options.

Identifying Volatility Risk Premium from Fixed Income Asian Options

We provide approximation formulas for at-the-money asian option prices to extract volatility risk premium from a joint dataset of bonds and option prices. The dynamic model generates stochastic volatility and a time-varying volatility risk premium, which explicitly depends on the average cross section of bond yields and on the time series behavior of option prices. When estimated using a joint dataset of Brazilian local bonds and asian options, the model generates bond risk premium strongly correlated (89%) with a widely accepted emerging markets benchmark index, and a negative volatility risk premium implying that investors might be using options as insurance in this market. Volatility premium explains a significant portion (32.5%) of bond premium, confirming that options are indeed important to identify risk premium in dynamic term structure models.

Estimation of Risk-Neutral Density Surfaces

Option price data is often used to infer risk-neutral densities for future prices of an underlying asset. Given the prices of a set of options on the same underlying asset with different strikes and maturities, we propose a nonparametric approach for estimating risk-neutral densities associated with several maturities. Our method uses bicubic splines in order to achieve the desired smoothness for the estimation and an optimization model to choose the spline functions that best fit the price data. Semidefinite programming is employed to guarantee the nonnegativity of the densities. We illustrate the process using synthetic option price data generated using log-normal and absolute diffusion processes as well as actual price data for options on the S&P500 index. We also used the risk-neutral densities that we computed to price exotic options and observed that this approach generates prices that closely approximate the market prices of these options.

Functional Optimisation of Online Algorithms in Multilayer Neural Networks

We study the online dynamics of learning in fully connected soft committee machines in the student-teacher scenario. The locally optimal modulation function, which determines the learning algorithm, is obtained from a variational argument in such a manner as to maximise the average generalisation error decay per example. Simulations results for the resulting algorithm are presented for a few cases. The symmetric phase plateaux are found to be vastly reduced in comparison to those found when online backpropagation algorithms are used. A discussion of the implementation of these ideas as practical algorithms is given

Distance-Based Methods: Ripley’s K function vs. K density function

In this paper, we propose an analytical and methodological comparison between two of the most known distance-based methods in the evaluation of the geographic concentration of economic activity. These two methods are Ripley’s K function, a cumulative function popularised by Marcon and Puech (2003) that counts the average number of neighbours of each point within a circle of a given radius, and K density function, a probability density function of point-pair distances introduced by Duranton and Overman (2005), which considers the distribution of distances between pairs of points. To carry out this comparison, we first apply both methodologies to an exhaustive database containing Spanish manufacturing establishments and we evaluate the spatial location patterns obtained from both analysis. After an initial analysis, we realise that although these functions have always been treated as substitutes they should be considered as complementary, as both cumulative function and probability density function provide relevant and necessary information about the distribution of activity in space. Therefore, our next step will be to assess what are the advantages and disadvantages of each methodology from a descriptive and analytical way.

Seismic vulnerability of churches in Faial and Pico islands, Azores

Earthquakes represent one of the main cause of serious damage and loss of historic and architectural heritage. Interventions to preserve these building should start with a careful knowledge and assessment of their seismic vulnerability, in order to support any needed retrofitting and strengthening measures. This paper proposes a procedure to register and diagnose of the level of damage on churches after the occurrence of an earthquake, and also to assess the seismic vulnerability of this type of construction. This procedure was applied to sixteen churches in the Azores islands which were hit by the July 9th 1998 earthquake. Belfries of church towers are elements with a particular seismic vulnerability. For this reason, and based on the Italian methodology proposed by the Linee Guida (2006), it is applied to belfries of two churches from Pico (Azores), a simplified mechanical model for assessment of seismic vulnerability of this type of structures

Distance of W3(OH) by VLBI annual parallax measurement

The most powerful tool for measuring distances within our Galaxy is the annual parallax. We carried out phase-referencing VLBI observations of H$_{2}$O masers in the star forming region W3(OH) with respect to the extragalactic continuum source ICRF 0244+624 to measure their absolute proper motions. The measured annual parallax is 0.484 $\pm$ 0.004 milli-arcseconds which corresponds to a distance of 2.07^{+0.01}_{-0.02}$ kpc from the sun. This distance is consistent with photometric and kinematic distances from previous observations.Comment: Proceedings of the 7th European VLBI Network Symposium (October 12-15 2004, Toledo, Spain), eds. Bachiller, R., Colomer, F., Desmurs, J. F., & de Vicente, P., 4 pages, 4 figures, needs evn2004.cl