Working Paper 56 - A Statistical Analysis of Determinants of Project Success: Examples from the African Development Bank

This paper analyzes some of the critical factors that determine project success inthe African Development Bank on the basis of data available on 146 projectscompleted by 1995. The analysis relies heavily on these observed data and doesnot take into account issues of project quality and implementation which haveassumed greater importance since 1995. The paper looks at the relationship betweenthe economic rates of return at appraisal and at completion for some 56 projectswhere such data were available. First, simple ordinary least squares models areused to explain some of the divergences in the economic rates of return at appraisaland completion stages. This is done by regressing economic rates of return atcompletion on the rates determined at appraisal. The model is then extended toinclude sector dummies and time and cost overruns. An alternative specificationuses simple probit modeling techniques to assess the effect of a number of variableson the probability of project success. The variables included in the analysis areGDP, population size, project size (proxied by cost), time and cost overruns andsector dummies.The findings of the study suggest that the rates of return at appraisal are at bestweak indicators of project performance. There are invariably huge disparities betweenrates of return at appraisal and those at completion, suggesting that if not qualifiedthe former might not be good policy guides. Further, the results suggest that a goodpolicy environment, as shown by rates of economic growth, inflation and thecountry’s level of development, is as important for project success as are the projectspecific characteristics, such as size of project or its sectoral description.

Detection of Babesia spp. in Free-Ranging Pukus, Kobus vardonii, on a Game Ranch in Zambia

Babesia spp. were detected from 4 asymptomatic pukus captured on a game ranch in central Zambia in October 2008. Blood smears were examined in 4 species of aymptomatic free-ranging antelopes, namely the puku (Kobus vordanii), reedbuck (Redunca arundinum), bushbuck (Tragelaphus sylvaticus), and kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros), and showed the presence of Babesia parasites only in the puku. In the puku, the prevalence of babesiosis was estimated at 33.3% (n=12), while the overall prevalence in all examined animals was 8.5% (n=47). The parasites showed morphological characteristics of paired ring-like stages with the length varying between 1.61 µm and 3.02 µm (mean=2.12 µm, n=27; SD=0.76 µm). Both the infected and non-infected pukus showed good body condition scores (BCS), while the dominant tick species detected from all animals were Rhipicephalus appendiculatus, Rhipicephalus spp., and Boophilus spp. To our knowledge this is the first report of Babesia spp. infection in pukus in Zambia. These findings suggest that wildlife could play an important role in the epidemiology of babesiosis in Zambia

Triple Co-Administration of Ivermectin, Albendazole and Praziquantel in Zanzibar: A Safety Study

This paper describes how the use of three drugs which are used separately in mass drug distribution programmes when given together appear safe for use in large populations which have been previously treated with the same drugs separately (Mectizan [ivermectin], albendazole and praziquantel). The target diseases—lymphatic filariasis, soil-transmitted worms and schistosomiasis—were prevalent in Zanzibar up to 2000 but have been largely controlled by mass drug administration. The Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, with the support of WHO, initiated a small scale trial in a population of triple therapy in over 5,000 people initially in two sites, and having found there were no severe adverse events associated with the combined treatment then upscaled to treat the whole of the eligible population of over 700,000. Similarly, there were no severe adverse events. This is the first time the three drugs have been used together at the same time at scale in Africa and provide a basis for expansion of integrated preventive chemotherapy of helminths (worms). The next steps need to be initiated in populations which have heavier worm loads and such interventions need to be subject to close monitoring and ethical review

Rifampicin resistance in mycobacterium tuberculosis patients using GeneXpert at Livingstone Central Hospital for the year 2015: a cross sectional explorative study

Abstract Background Since the recent introduction of GeneXepert for the detection of Tuberculosis (TB) drug resistance mutations in both primary resistance and acquired resistance in Zambia, little has been documented in literature on the issue of rifampicin resistance especially in the face of a high National TB burden. The study aimed to determine the prevalence of rifampicin resistance in tuberculosis patients at Livingstone Central Hospital for the year 2015. Methods This was a cross sectional study conducted at Livingstone Central Hospital where we reviewed 152 records (from January 1, 2015 to 31st December, 2015) involving patients who presented with clinically suspected TB or documented TB, whose samples were sent to the laboratory for GeneXpert Mycobacterium tuberculosis/rifampicin testing. Statistical evaluations used a one-sample test of proportion and Fisher’s exact test. Results The age of participants ranged from 8 months to 73 years old (median = 34). Of the participants with complete data on gender, 99 (66%) and 52 (34%) were males and females respectively. The TB co-infection with HIV prevalence was 98.3% (p < 0.001). Prevalence of rifampicin resistance was 5.9% and there was no statistical significant difference between being male or female (p = 0.721). Conclusion We were able to show from our study, evidence of rifampicin resistance at Livingstone Central Hospital. Hence, there was need for further in-depth research and appropriate interventions (i.e close follow-up and patient care for drug resistance positive patients)

Reflections on the Green Growth Index for developing countries: a focus of selected African countries

This article presents a pilot and baseline African Green Growth Index (AGGI). The work is premised on the importance of Africa implementing green growth strategies. Baseline indicators allow countries to monitor progress towards green growth transition. The AGGI incorporates 48 indicators applied to 22 countries that had the requisite data. What emerges is that 18 out of the 22 African countries sampled scored 50 percentage points and above. The countries scoring below this threshold were: Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria and South Africa. The top five countries on the AGGI (as ranked from 1-5) were: Namibia, Zambia, Ghana, Tanzania and Togo. The authors recommend that for wider acceptance across the continent, the AGGI should work towards incorporating all 54 nations