Systems Innovation, Inertia and Pliability: A mathematical exploration with implications for climate change abatement

This paper develops a stylised mathematical interpretation of innovation and inertia in economic systems, characteristics which feature in economics literature traceable back at least to Schumpeter and other economic theorists of innovation, as well as economic historians. Such characteristics are particularly important in energy systems and their potential response to climate change, where it is important to distinguish operational/fuel substitution from investment because the latter necessarily embodies both inertia and innovation, in systems as well as technologies. We argue that integrated assessments of climate abatement need to focus on investment, including the associated characteristics of both learning and inertia, and derive in detail the mathematical basis for incorporating these factors through marginal investment cost curves. From this we also introduce the concept of �pliability� as an expression of the ratio between costs which are significant but transitional (including learning investments, infrastructure and overcoming inertia), as compared to the enduring costs implied by purely exogenous technology assumptions. We then incorporate these features in a global model of optimal climate mitigation and show that they can generate a very different profile and pattern of results from traditional �integrated assessment� models, pinpointing the key sensitivities. We conclude that alongside all the attention devoted to evaluating climate change impacts and technology scenarios, far more effort should be devoted to understanding the structural characteristics of how the global energy system may respond to climate change mitigation

Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets

Several major economies rely heavily on fossil-fuel production and exports, yet current low-carbon technology diffusion, energy efficiency and climate policy may be substantially reducing global demand for fossil fuels.1-4 This trend is inconsistent with observed investment in new fossil-fuel ventures1,2, which could become stranded as a result. Here we use an integrated global economy environment simulation model to study the macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets (SFFA). Our analysis suggests that part of the SFFA would occur as a result of an already ongoing technological trajectory, irrespective of whether new climate policies are adopted or not; the loss would be amplified if new climate policies to reach the 2°C target are adopted and/or if low-cost producers (some OPEC countries) maintain their level of production (‘sell-out’) despite declining demand; the magnitude of the loss from SFFA may amount to a discounted global wealth loss of $1-4tn; and there are clear distributional impacts, with winners (e.g. net importers such as China or the EU) and losers (e.g. Russia, the US or Canada, which could see their fossil-fuel industries nearly shut down), although the two effects would largely offset each other at the level of aggregate global GDP.The authors acknowledge C-EERNG and Cambridge Econometrics for support, and funding from EPSRC (JFM, fellowship no. EP/ K007254/1); the Newton Fund (JFM, PS, JV, EPSRC grant no EP/N002504/1 and ESRC grant no ES/N013174/1), NERC (NRE, PH, HP, grant no NE/P015093/1), CONICYT (PS), the Philomathia Foundation (JV), the Cambridge Humanities Research Grants Scheme (JV), and Horizon 2020 (HP, JFM; Sim4Nexus project)

Changes in plant communities over three decades on two disturbed bogs in southeastern Quebec.

Abstract Questions: Have the natural plant communities of two mined bogs experienced changes in composition and richness over a three-decade period, and are these changes associated with anthropogenic disturbances? Location: Bas-Saint-Laurent region, southeastern Que´bec, Canada. Methods: We monitored three decades of floristic changes in two disturbed bogs by revisiting 57 plots in 1998, which were previously sampled in 1965 and 1966. Changes in species richness and composition were evaluated using Wilcoxon signed rank tests, principal component analysis and partial redundancy analyses (pRDA). We also used pRDA and an indicator species analysis to determine which species had undergone the greatest changes over time. Variation partitioning was used to evaluate the relative influence of human disturbance in compositional change. Results: The main changes in the vegetation of the two bogs were 1) a decrease of overall species diversity, 2) an increase in the percent cover of trees and of species tolerant of shade or drought, and 3) a decrease in the cover of heliophilous species. Picea mariana, Sphagnum fuscum and Pleurozium schreberi increased in percent cover while Chamaedaphne calyculata and Sphagnum rubellum decreased in percent cover. Variation partitioning suggested that human activities had a significant impact on vegetation composition. Conclusion: The results indicated that substantial changes occurred in the vegetation of the natural fragments of these severely disturbed bogs. Although human activities were partially responsible for the changes, our study suggested that the drying of the peat surface due to drought during the 1960s and 1980s may have contributed to the vegetation changes

Photoemission Spectroscopy and the Unusually Robust One Dimensional Physics of Lithium Purple Bronze

Temperature dependent photoemission spectroscopy in Li0.9Mo6O17 contributes to evidence for one dimensional physics that is unusually robust. Three generic characteristics of the Luttinger liquid are observed, power law behavior of the k-integrated spectral function down to temperatures just above the superconducting transition, k-resolved lineshapes that show holon and spinon features, and quantum critical (QC) scaling in the lineshapes. Departures of the lineshapes and the scaling from expectations in the Tomonaga Luttinger model can be partially described by a phenomenological momentum broadening that is presented and discussed. The possibility that some form of 1d physics obtains even down to the superconducting transition temperature is assessed.Comment: submitted to JPCM, Special issue article "Physics in one dimension

Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector

We present a carbon-cycle–climate modelling framework using model emulation, designed for integrated assessment modelling, which introduces a new emulator of the carbon cycle (GENIEem). We demonstrate that GENIEem successfully reproduces the CO2 concentrations of the Representative Concentration Pathways when forced with the corresponding CO2 emissions and non-CO2 forcing. To demonstrate its application as part of the integrated assessment framework, we use GENIEem along with an emulator of the climate (PLASIM- ENTSem) to evaluate global CO2 concentration levels and spatial temperature and precipitation response pat- terns resulting from CO2 emission scenarios. These scenarios are modelled using a macroeconometric model (E3MG) coupled to a model of technology substitution dynamics (FTT), and represent different emissions reduction policies applied solely in the electricity sector, without mitigation in the rest of the economy. The effect of cascading uncertainty is apparent, but despite uncertainties, it is clear that in all scenarios, global mean tem- peratures in excess of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels are projected by the end of the century. Our approach also highlights the regional temperature and precipitation patterns associated with the global mean temperature change occurring in these scenarios, enabling more robust impacts modelling and emphasizing the necessity of focusing on spatial patterns in addition to global mean temperature change

Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal

The climate crisis demands a strong response from policy-makers worldwide. The current global climate policy agenda requires technological change, innovation, labour markets and the financial system to be led towards an orderly and rapid low-carbon transition. Yet progress has been slow and incremental. Inadequacies of policy appraisal frameworks used worldwide may be significant contributors to the problem, as they frequently fail to adequately account for the dynamics of societal and technological change. Risks are underestimated, and the economic opportunities from innovation are generally not assessed in practice. Here, we identify root causes of those inadequacies and identify them to structural features of standard analysis frameworks. We use a review of theoretical principles of complexity science and the science of dynamical systems and formulate a generalisation of existing frameworks for policy analysis and the appraisal of outcomes of proposed policy strategies, to help better identify and frame situations of transformational change. We use the term “risk-opportunity analysis” to capture the generalised approach, in which conventional economic cost-benefit analysis is a special case. New guiding principles for policy-making during dynamic and transformational change are offered

Creating quantitative scenario projections for the UK shared socioeconomic pathways

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were developed as a framework for exploring alternative futures with challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Whilst originally developed at the global scale, the SSPs have been increasingly interpreted at the national scale in order to inform national level climate change policy and impact assessments, including mitigation and adaptation actions. Here, we present a set of quantitative SSP scenario projections, based on narratives and semi-quantitative trends, for the UK (the UK-SSPs) for a wide range of sectors that are relevant to the UK climate research, policy and business communities. We show that a mixed-methods approach that combines computational modelling with an interpretation of stakeholder storylines and empirical data is an effective way of generating a comprehensive range of quantitative indicators across sectors and geographic areas in a specific national context. The global SSP assumptions of low challenges to climate adaptation lead to similar socioeconomic outcomes in UK-SSP1 and UK-SSP5, although based on very different dynamics and underlying drivers. Convergence was also identified in indicators related to more efficient natural resource use in the scenarios with low challenges to climate change mitigation (UK-SSP1 and UK-SSP4). Alternatively, societal inequality played a strong role in scenarios with high challenges to adaptation leading to convergence in indicator trends (UK-SSP3 and UK-SSP4)

High-Field Superconductivity at an Electronic Topological Transition in URhGe

The emergence of superconductivity at high magnetic fields in URhGe is regarded as a paradigm for new state formation approaching a quantum critical point. Until now, a divergence of the quasiparticle mass at the metamagnetic transition was considered essential for superconductivity to survive at magnetic fields above 30 tesla. Here we report the observation of quantum oscillations in URhGe revealing a tiny pocket of heavy quasiparticles that shrinks continuously with increasing magnetic field, and finally disappears at a topological Fermi surface transition close to or at the metamagnetic field. The quasiparticle mass decreases and remains finite, implying that the Fermi velocity vanishes due to the collapse of the Fermi wavevector. This offers a novel explanation for the re-emergence of superconductivity at extreme magnetic fields and makes URhGe the first proven example of a material where magnetic field-tuning of the Fermi surface, rather than quantum criticality alone, governs quantum phase formation.Comment: A revised version has been accepted for publication in Nature Physic