Approximate solutions to the multiple-choice knapsack problem by multiobjectivization and Chebyshev scalarization

The method BISSA, proposed by Bednarczuk, Miroforidis, and Pyzel, provides approximate solutions to the multiple-choice knapsack problem. To fathom the optimality gap that is left by BISSA, we present a method that starts from the BISSA solution and it is able to provide a better approximation and in consequence a tighter optimality gap. Like BISSA, the new method is based on the multiobjectivization of the multiple-choice knapsack but instead of the linear scalarization used in BISSA, it makes use of the Chebyshev scalarization. We validate the new method on the same set of problems used to validate BISSA

Two to Five Truths in Non-Negative Matrix Factorization

In this paper, we explore the role of matrix scaling on a matrix of counts when building a topic model using non-negative matrix factorization. We present a scaling inspired by the normalized Laplacian (NL) for graphs that can greatly improve the quality of a non-negative matrix factorization. The results parallel those in the spectral graph clustering work of \cite{Priebe:2019}, where the authors proved adjacency spectral embedding (ASE) spectral clustering was more likely to discover core-periphery partitions and Laplacian Spectral Embedding (LSE) was more likely to discover affinity partitions. In text analysis non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is typically used on a matrix of co-occurrence ``contexts'' and ``terms" counts. The matrix scaling inspired by LSE gives significant improvement for text topic models in a variety of datasets. We illustrate the dramatic difference a matrix scalings in NMF can greatly improve the quality of a topic model on three datasets where human annotation is available. Using the adjusted Rand index (ARI), a measure cluster similarity we see an increase of 50\% for Twitter data and over 200\% for a newsgroup dataset versus using counts, which is the analogue of ASE. For clean data, such as those from the Document Understanding Conference, NL gives over 40\% improvement over ASE. We conclude with some analysis of this phenomenon and some connections of this scaling with other matrix scaling methods

Phosphatidylinositol-3-phosphate regulates response of cells to proteotoxic stress

Human Nedd4 ubiquitin ligase, or its variants, inhibit yeast cell growth by disturbing the actin cytoskeleton organization and dynamics, and lead to an increase in levels of ubiquitinated proteins. In a screen for multicopy suppressors which rescue growth of yeast cells producing Nedd4 ligase with an inactive WW4 domain (Nedd4w4), we identified a fragment of ATG2 gene encoding part of the Atg2 core autophagy protein. Expression of the Atg2-C1 fragment (aa 1074-1447) improved growth, actin cytoskeleton organization, but did not significantly change the levels of ubiquitinated proteins in these cells. The GFP-Atg2-C1 protein in Nedd4w4-producing cells primarily localized to a single defined structure adjacent to the vacuole, surrounded by an actin filament ring, containing Hsp42 and Hsp104 chaperones. This localization was not affected in several atg deletion mutants, suggesting that it might be distinct from the phagophore assembly site (PAS). However, deletion of ATG18 encoding a phosphatidylinositol-3-phosphate (PI3P)-binding protein affected the morphology of the GFP-Atg2-C1 structure while deletion of ATG14 encoding a subunit of PI3 kinase suppressed toxicity of Nedd4w4 independently of GFP-Atg2-C1. Further analysis of the Atg2-C1 revealed that it contains an APT1 domain of previously uncharacterized function. Most importantly, we showed that this domain is able to bind phosphatidylinositol phosphates, especially PI3P, which is abundant in the PAS and endosomes. Together our results suggest that human Nedd4 ubiquitinates proteins in yeast and causes proteotoxic stress and, with some Atg proteins, leads to formation of a perivacuolar structure, which may be involved in sequestration, aggregation or degradation of proteins

Bi-Level Optimization to Enhance Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy Planning

Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy is an effective cancer treatment. Models based on the Generalized Equivalent Uniform Dose (gEUD) provide radiation plans with excellent planning target volume coverage and low radiation for organs at risk. However, manual adjustment of the parameters involved in gEUD is required to ensure that the plans meet patient-specific physical restrictions. This paper proposes a radiotherapy planning methodology based on bi-level optimization. We evaluated the proposed scheme in a real patient and compared the resulting irradiation plans with those prepared by clinical planners in hospital devices. The results in terms of efficiency and effectiveness are promising

A Hybrid Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision Making Model to Evaluate the Overall Performance of Public Emergency Departments: A Case Study

[EN] Performance evaluation is relevant for supporting managerial decisions related to the improvement of public emergency departments (EDs). As different criteria from ED context and several alternatives need to be considered, selecting a suitable Multicriteria Decision-Making (MCDM) approach has become a crucial step for ED performance evaluation. Although some methodologies have been proposed to address this challenge, a more complete approach is still lacking. This paper bridges this gap by integrating three potent MCDM methods. First, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) is used to determine the criteria and sub-criteria weights under uncertainty, followed by the interdependence evaluation via fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(FDEMATEL). The fuzzy logic is merged with AHP and DEMATEL to illustrate vague judgments. Finally, the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is used for ranking EDs. This approach is validated in a real 3-ED cluster. The results revealed the critical role of Infrastructure (21.5%) in ED performance and the interactive nature of Patient safety (C+R =12.771). Furthermore, this paper evidences the weaknesses to be tackled for upgrading the performance of each ED.Ortiz-Barrios, M.; Alfaro Saiz, JJ. (2020). A Hybrid Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision Making Model to Evaluate the Overall Performance of Public Emergency Departments: A Case Study. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making. 19(6):1485-1548. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219622020500364S14851548196Lord, K., Parwani, V., Ulrich, A., Finn, E. B., Rothenberg, C., Emerson, B., … Venkatesh, A. K. (2018). Emergency department boarding and adverse hospitalization outcomes among patients admitted to a general medical service. The American Journal of Emergency Medicine, 36(7), 1246-1248. doi:10.1016/j.ajem.2018.03.043Sørup, C. M., Jacobsen, P., & Forberg, J. L. (2013). 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Performance Management in Healthcare. doi:10.4324/9781315102214Santos, S. P., Belton, V., Howick, S., & Pilkington, M. (2018). Measuring organisational performance using a mix of OR methods. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 131, 18-30. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.07.028Ho, W., & Ma, X. (2018). The state-of-the-art integrations and applications of the analytic hierarchy process. European Journal of Operational Research, 267(2), 399-414. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2017.09.007Dargi, A., Anjomshoae, A., Galankashi, M. R., Memari, A., & Tap, M. B. M. (2014). Supplier Selection: A Fuzzy-ANP Approach. Procedia Computer Science, 31, 691-700. doi:10.1016/j.procs.2014.05.317Jing, M., Jie, Y., Shou-yi, L., & Lu, W. (2015). Application of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process in the risk assessment of dangerous small-sized reservoirs. International Journal of Machine Learning and Cybernetics, 9(1), 113-123. doi:10.1007/s13042-015-0363-4Samanlioglu, F., Taskaya, Y. E., Gulen, U. C., & Cokcan, O. (2018). A Fuzzy AHP–TOPSIS-Based Group Decision-Making Approach to IT Personnel Selection. International Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 20(5), 1576-1591. doi:10.1007/s40815-018-0474-7CHEN, M.-F., TZENG, G.-H., & TANG, T.-I. (2005). FUZZY MCDM APPROACH FOR EVALUATION OF EXPATRIATE ASSIGNMENTS. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 04(02), 277-296. doi:10.1142/s0219622005001520Gul, M., Celik, E., Gumus, A. T., & Guneri, A. F. (2016). Emergency department performance evaluation by an integrated simulation and interval type-2 fuzzy MCDM-based scenario analysis. European J. of Industrial Engineering, 10(2), 196. doi:10.1504/ejie.2016.075846Jovčić, Průša, Dobrodolac, & Švadlenka. (2019). A Proposal for a Decision-Making Tool in Third-Party Logistics (3PL) Provider Selection Based on Multi-Criteria Analysis and the Fuzzy Approach. Sustainability, 11(15), 4236. doi:10.3390/su11154236Saaty, T. L., & Vargas, L. G. (2012). 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K., Govindan, K., Antucheviciene, J., & Turskis, Z. (2016). Hybrid multiple criteria decision-making methods: a review of applications for sustainability issues. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 29(1), 857-887. doi:10.1080/1331677x.2016.1237302Lolli, F., Balugani, E., Ishizaka, A., Gamberini, R., Butturi, M. A., Marinello, S., & Rimini, B. (2019). On the elicitation of criteria weights in PROMETHEE-based ranking methods for a mobile application. Expert Systems with Applications, 120, 217-227. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2018.11.030De Almeida Filho, A. T., Clemente, T. R. N., Morais, D. C., & de Almeida, A. T. (2018). Preference modeling experiments with surrogate weighting procedures for the PROMETHEE method. European Journal of Operational Research, 264(2), 453-461. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2017.08.006Sun, G., Guan, X., Yi, X., & Zhou, Z. (2018). An innovative TOPSIS approach based on hesitant fuzzy correlation coefficient and its applications. Applied Soft Computing, 68, 249-267. doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2018.04.004Frazão, T. D. C., Camilo, D. G. G., Cabral, E. L. S., & Souza, R. P. (2018). Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in health care: a systematic review of the main characteristics and methodological steps. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, 18(1). doi:10.1186/s12911-018-0663-1Ortiz-Barrios, M. A., Herrera-Fontalvo, Z., Rúa-Muñoz, J., Ojeda-Gutiérrez, S., De Felice, F., & Petrillo, A. (2018). An integrated approach to evaluate the risk of adverse events in hospital sector. Management Decision, 56(10), 2187-2224. doi:10.1108/md-09-2017-0917Al Salem, A. A., & Awasthi, A. (2018). Investigating rank reversal in reciprocal fuzzy preference relation based on additive consistency: Causes and solutions. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 115, 573-581. doi:10.1016/j.cie.2017.11.027Aires, R. F. de F., & Ferreira, L. (2019). A new approach to avoid rank reversal cases in the TOPSIS method. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 132, 84-97. doi:10.1016/j.cie.2019.04.023Emrouznejad, A., & Yang, G. (2018). A survey and analysis of the first 40 years of scholarly literature in DEA: 1978–2016. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 61, 4-8. doi:10.1016/j.seps.2017.01.008Arya, A., & Yadav, S. P. (2017). Development of FDEA Models to Measure the Performance Efficiencies of DMUs. International Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 20(1), 163-173. doi:10.1007/s40815-017-0325-yMufazzal, S., & Muzakkir, S. M. (2018). A new multi-criterion decision making (MCDM) method based on proximity indexed value for minimizing rank reversals. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 119, 427-438. doi:10.1016/j.cie.2018.03.045Kaliszewski, I., & Podkopaev, D. (2016). Simple additive weighting—A metamodel for multiple criteria decision analysis methods. Expert Systems with Applications, 54, 155-161. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2016.01.042Mousavi-Nasab, S. H., & Sotoudeh-Anvari, A. (2018). A new multi-criteria decision making approach for sustainable material selection problem: A critical study on rank reversal problem. Journal of Cleaner Production, 182, 466-484. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.02.062Chen, Z., Ming, X., Zhang, X., Yin, D., & Sun, Z. (2019). A rough-fuzzy DEMATEL-ANP method for evaluating sustainable value requirement of product service system. Journal of Cleaner Production, 228, 485-508. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.145Jumaah, F. M., Zadain, A. A., Zaidan, B. B., Hamzah, A. K., & Bahbibi, R. (2018). Decision-making solution based multi-measurement design parameter for optimization of GPS receiver tracking channels in static and dynamic real-time positioning multipath environment. Measurement, 118, 83-95. doi:10.1016/j.measurement.2018.01.011Singh, A., & Prasher, A. (2017). Measuring healthcare service quality from patients’ perspective: using Fuzzy AHP application. Total Quality Management & Business Excellence, 30(3-4), 284-300. doi:10.1080/14783363.2017.1302794Otay, İ., Oztaysi, B., Cevik Onar, S., & Kahraman, C. (2017). Multi-expert performance evaluation of healthcare institutions using an integrated intuitionistic fuzzy AHP&DEA methodology. Knowledge-Based Systems, 133, 90-106. doi:10.1016/j.knosys.2017.06.028Awasthi, A., Govindan, K., & Gold, S. (2018). Multi-tier sustainable global supplier selection using a fuzzy AHP-VIKOR based approach. International Journal of Production Economics, 195, 106-117. doi:10.1016/j.ijpe.2017.10.013Gul, M., Guneri, A. F., & Nasirli, S. M. (2018). A fuzzy-based model for risk assessment of routes in oil transportation. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 16(8), 4671-4686. doi:10.1007/s13762-018-2078-zKazancoglu, Y., Kazancoglu, I., & Sagnak, M. (2018). Fuzzy DEMATEL-based green supply chain management performance. Industrial Management & Data Systems, 118(2), 412-431. doi:10.1108/imds-03-2017-0121Abdullah, L., & Zulkifli, N. (2015). Integration of fuzzy AHP and interval type-2 fuzzy DEMATEL: An application to human resource management. Expert Systems with Applications, 42(9), 4397-4409. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2015.01.021Ashtiani, M., & Azgomi, M. A. (2016). A hesitant fuzzy model of computational trust considering hesitancy, vagueness and uncertainty. Applied Soft Computing, 42, 18-37. doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2016.01.023Zyoud, S. H., & Fuchs-Hanusch, D. (2017). A bibliometric-based survey on AHP and TOPSIS techniques. Expert Systems with Applications, 78, 158-181. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2017.02.016Scholz, S., Ngoli, B., & Flessa, S. (2015). Rapid assessment of infrastructure of primary health care facilities – a relevant instrument for health care systems management. BMC Health Services Research, 15(1). doi:10.1186/s12913-015-0838-8Ivlev, I., Vacek, J., & Kneppo, P. (2015). Multi-criteria decision analysis for supporting the selection of medical devices under uncertainty. European Journal of Operational Research, 247(1), 216-228. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2015.05.075Kovacs, E., Strobl, R., Phillips, A., Stephan, A.-J., Müller, M., Gensichen, J., & Grill, E. (2018). Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of the Effectiveness of Implementation Strategies for Non-communicable Disease Guidelines in Primary Health Care. Journal of General Internal Medicine, 33(7), 1142-1154. doi:10.1007/s11606-018-4435-5Morley, C., Unwin, M., Peterson, G. M., Stankovich, J., & Kinsman, L. (2018). Emergency department crowding: A systematic review of causes, consequences and solutions. PLOS ONE, 13(8), e0203316. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0203316Hermann, R. M., Long, E., & Trotta, R. L. (2019). Improving Patients’ Experiences Communicating With Nurses and Providers in the Emergency Department. Journal of Emergency Nursing, 45(5), 523-530. doi:10.1016/j.jen.2018.12.001Hawley, K. L., Mazer-Amirshahi, M., Zocchi, M. S., Fox, E. R., & Pines, J. M. (2015). Longitudinal Trends in U.S. Drug Shortages for Medications Used in Emergency Departments (2001-2014). Academic Emergency Medicine, 23(1), 63-69. doi:10.1111/acem.12838Stang, A. S., Crotts, J., Johnson, D. W., Hartling, L., & Guttmann, A. (2015). Crowding Measures Associated With the Quality of Emergency Department Care: A Systematic Review. Academic Emergency Medicine, 22(6), 643-656. doi:10.1111/acem.12682Chanamool, N., & Naenna, T. (2016). Fuzzy FMEA application to improve decision-making process in an emergency department. Applied Soft Computing, 43, 441-453. doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2016.01.007Farup, P. G. (2015). Are measurements of patient safety culture and adverse events valid and reliable? Results from a cross sectional study. BMC Health Services Research, 15(1). doi:10.1186/s12913-015-0852-xCarter, E. J., Pouch, S. M., & Larson, E. L. (2013). The Relationship Between Emergency Department Crowding and Patient Outcomes: A Systematic Review. Journal of Nursing Scholarship, 46(2), 106-115. doi:10.1111/jnu.12055Ebben, R. H. A., Siqeca, F., Madsen, U. R., Vloet, L. C. M., & van Achterberg, T. (2018). Effectiveness of implementation strategies for the improvement of guideline and protocol adherence in emergency care: a systematic review. BMJ Open, 8(11), e017572. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2017-017572Innes, G. D., Sivilotti, M. L. A., Ovens, H., McLelland, K., Dukelow, A., Kwok, E., … Chochinov, A. (2018). Emergency overcrowding and access block: A smaller problem than we think. CJEM, 21(2), 177-185. doi:10.1017/cem.2018.446Di Somma, S., Paladino, L., Vaughan, L., Lalle, I., Magrini, L., & Magnanti, M. (2014). Overcrowding in emergency department: an international issue. Internal and Emergency Medicine, 10(2), 171-175. doi:10.1007/s11739-014-1154-8Uthman, O. A., Walker, C., Lahiri, S., Jenkinson, D., Adekanmbi, V., Robertson, W., & Clarke, A. (2018). General practitioners providing non-urgent care in emergency department: a natural experiment. BMJ Open, 8(5), e019736. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2017-019736Razzak, J. A., Baqir, S. M., Khan, U. R., Heller, D., Bhatti, J., & Hyder, A. A. (2013). Emergency and trauma care in Pakistan: a cross-sectional study of healthcare levels. Emergency Medicine Journal, 32(3), 207-213. doi:10.1136/emermed-2013-202590Dart, R. C., Goldfrank, L. R., Erstad, B. L., Huang, D. T., Todd, K. H., Weitz, J., … Anderson, V. E. (2018). Expert Consensus Guidelines for Stocking of Antidotes in Hospitals That Provide Emergency Care. Annals of Emergency Medicine, 71(3), 314-325.e1. doi:10.1016/j.annemergmed.2017.05.021Mkoka, D. A., Goicolea, I., Kiwara, A., Mwangu, M., & Hurtig, A.-K. (2014). Availability of drugs and medical supplies for emergency obstetric care: experience of health facility managers in a rural District of Tanzania. BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth, 14(1). doi:10.1186/1471-2393-14-108Beck, M. J., Okerblom, D., Kumar, A., Bandyopadhyay, S., & Scalzi, L. V. (2016). Lean intervention improves patient discharge times, improves emergency department throughput and reduces congestion. Hospital Practice, 44(5), 252-259. doi:10.1080/21548331.2016.1254559Morais Oliveira, M., Marti, C., Ramlawi, M., Sarasin, F. P., Grosgurin, O., Poletti, P.-A., … Rutschmann, O. T. (2018). Impact of a patient-flow physician coordinator on waiting times and length of stay in an emergency department: A before-after cohort study. PLOS ONE, 13(12), e0209035. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0209035Vermeulen, M. J., Stukel, T. A., Boozary, A. S., Guttmann, A., & Schull, M. J. (2016). The Effect of Pay for Performance in the Emergency Department on Patient Waiting Times and Quality of Care in Ontario, Canada: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis. Annals of Emergency Medicine, 67(4), 496-505.e7. doi:10.1016/j.annemergmed.2015.06.028Singh, S., Lin, Y.-L., Nattinger, A. B., Kuo, Y.-F., & Goodwin, J. S. (2015). Variation in readmission rates by emergency departments and emergency department providers caring for patients after discharge. Journal of Hospital Medicine, 10(11), 705-710. doi:10.1002/jhm.2407Källberg, A.-S., Göransson, K. E., Florin, J., Östergren, J., Brixey, J. J., & Ehrenberg, A. (2015). Contributing factors to errors in Swedish emergency departments. International Emergency Nursing, 23(2), 156-161. doi:10.1016/j.ienj.2014.10.002Riga, M., Vozikis, A., Pollalis, Y., & Souliotis, K. (2015). MERIS (Medical Error Reporting Information System) as an innovative patient safety intervention: A health policy perspective. 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A., Yang, J., Altieri, M., Patterson, W., Peoples, B., Chen, H., … Pryor, A. D. (2016). Rates and Risk Factors for Unplanned Emergency Department Utilization and Hospital Readmission Following Bariatric Surgery. Annals of Surgery, 263(5), 956-960. doi:10.1097/sla.0000000000001536Rigobello, M. C. G., Carvalho, R. E. F. L. de, Guerreiro, J. M., Motta, A. P. G., Atila, E., & Gimenes, F. R. E. (2017). The perception of the patient safety climate by professionals of the emergency department. International Emergency Nursing, 33, 1-6. doi:10.1016/j.ienj.2017.03.003Farmer, B. (2016). Patient Safety in the Emergency Department. Emergency Medicine, 48(9), 396-404. doi:10.12788/emed.2016.0052Liu, H.-C., You, J.-X., Zhen, L., & Fan, X.-J. (2014). A novel hybrid multiple criteria decision making model for material selection with target-based criteria. Materials & Design, 60, 380-390. doi:10.1016/j.matdes.2014.03.071Kou, G., Ergu, D., & Shang, J. (2014). Enhancing data consistency in decision matrix: Adapting Hadamard model to mitigate judgment contradiction. European Journal of Operational Research, 236(1), 261-271. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2013.11.035Keshavarz Ghorabaee, M., Amiri, M., Zavadskas, E. K., & Antucheviciene, J. (2017). Supplier evaluation and selection in fuzzy environments: a review of MADM approaches. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 30(1), 1073-1118. doi:10.1080/1331677x.2017.1314828Barrios, M. A. O., De Felice, F., Negrete, K. P., Romero, B. A., Arenas, A. Y., & Petrillo, A. (2016). An AHP-Topsis Integrated Model for Selecting the Most Appropriate Tomography Equipment. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 15(04), 861-885. doi:10.1142/s021962201640006xYeh, D.-Y., & Cheng, C.-H. (2016). Performance Management of Taiwan’s National Hospitals. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 15(01), 187-213. doi:10.1142/s0219622014500199Chen, T.-Y. (2014). An Interactive Signed Distance Approach for Multiple Criteria Group Decision-Making Based on Simple Additive Weighting Method with Incomplete Preference Information Defined by Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 13(05), 979-1012. doi:10.1142/s0219622014500229Gou, X., Xu, Z., & Liao, H. (2019). Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Possibility Degree-Based Linear Assignment Method for Multiple Criteria Decision-Making. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 18(01), 35-63. doi:10.1142/s0219622017500377Saksrisathaporn, K., Bouras, A., Reeveerakul, N., & Charles, A. (2016). Application of a Decision Model by Using an Integration of AHP and TOPSIS Approaches within Humanitarian Operation Life Cycle. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 15(04), 887-918. doi:10.1142/s0219622015500261Hsiao, B., & Chen, L.-H. (2019). 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Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules (THYCOVID): a retrospective, international, multicentre, cross-sectional study

Background Since its outbreak in early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has diverted resources from non-urgent and elective procedures, leading to diagnosis and treatment delays, with an increased number of neoplasms at advanced stages worldwide. The aims of this study were to quantify the reduction in surgical activity for indeterminate thyroid nodules during the COVID-19 pandemic; and to evaluate whether delays in surgery led to an increased occurrence of aggressive tumours.Methods In this retrospective, international, cross-sectional study, centres were invited to participate in June 22, 2022; each centre joining the study was asked to provide data from medical records on all surgical thyroidectomies consecutively performed from Jan 1, 2019, to Dec 31, 2021. Patients with indeterminate thyroid nodules were divided into three groups according to when they underwent surgery: from Jan 1, 2019, to Feb 29, 2020 (global prepandemic phase), from March 1, 2020, to May 31, 2021 (pandemic escalation phase), and from June 1 to Dec 31, 2021 (pandemic decrease phase). The main outcomes were, for each phase, the number of surgeries for indeterminate thyroid nodules, and in patients with a postoperative diagnosis of thyroid cancers, the occurrence of tumours larger than 10 mm, extrathyroidal extension, lymph node metastases, vascular invasion, distant metastases, and tumours at high risk of structural disease recurrence. Univariate analysis was used to compare the probability of aggressive thyroid features between the first and third study phases. The study was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05178186.Findings Data from 157 centres (n=49 countries) on 87 467 patients who underwent surgery for benign and malignant thyroid disease were collected, of whom 22 974 patients (18 052 [78 center dot 6%] female patients and 4922 [21 center dot 4%] male patients) received surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules. We observed a significant reduction in surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules during the pandemic escalation phase (median monthly surgeries per centre, 1 center dot 4 [IQR 0 center dot 6-3 center dot 4]) compared with the prepandemic phase (2 center dot 0 [0 center dot 9-3 center dot 7]; p<0 center dot 0001) and pandemic decrease phase (2 center dot 3 [1 center dot 0-5 center dot 0]; p<0 center dot 0001). Compared with the prepandemic phase, in the pandemic decrease phase we observed an increased occurrence of thyroid tumours larger than 10 mm (2554 [69 center dot 0%] of 3704 vs 1515 [71 center dot 5%] of 2119; OR 1 center dot 1 [95% CI 1 center dot 0-1 center dot 3]; p=0 center dot 042), lymph node metastases (343 [9 center dot 3%] vs 264 [12 center dot 5%]; OR 1 center dot 4 [1 center dot 2-1 center dot 7]; p=0 center dot 0001), and tumours at high risk of structural disease recurrence (203 [5 center dot 7%] of 3584 vs 155 [7 center dot 7%] of 2006; OR 1 center dot 4 [1 center dot 1-1 center dot 7]; p=0 center dot 0039).Interpretation Our study suggests that the reduction in surgical activity for indeterminate thyroid nodules during the COVID-19 pandemic period could have led to an increased occurrence of aggressive thyroid tumours. However, other compelling hypotheses, including increased selection of patients with aggressive malignancies during this period, should be considered. We suggest that surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules should no longer be postponed even in future instances of pandemic escalation.Funding None.Copyright (c) 2023 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved