A Semiparametric Estimation for Regression Functions in the Partially Linear Autoregressive Time Series Model

In this paper, a semiparametric method is proposed for estimating regression function in the partially linear autoregressive time series model . Here, we consider a combination of parametric forms and nonlinear functions, in which the errors are independent. Semiparametric and nonparametric curve estimation provides a useful tool for exploring and understanding the structure of a nonlinear time series data set to make for a more efficient study in the partially linear autoregressive model. The unknown parameters are estimated using the conditional nonlinear least squares method, and the nonparametric adjustment is also estimated by defining and minimizing the local L2 -fitting criterion with respect to the nonparametric adjustment and, with smooth-kernel method , these estimates are corrected. Then, the autoregression function estimators, which can be calculated with the sample and simulation data , are obtained. In this case , some strong and weak consistency and simulated results for the semiparametric estimation in this model are presented . The root mean square error and the average square error criterions are also applied to verify the efficiency of the suggested model

Efficacy of aftercare services for people with severe mental disorders in Iran: A randomized controlled trial

Objectives: This study aimed to determine whether after-care services reduced the number of rehospitalizations and length of hospital stay among patients with severe mental disorders. Methods: A total of 120 patients with schizophrenia and schizoaffective or bipolar disorder between the ages of 15 and 65 were recruited from 2010 to 2012 for a randomized controlled trial. The participants were followed up for 20 months after discharge from a university-affiliated hospital in Tehran, Iran. The selection procedure was random sampling. Sixty patients received aftercare services, which included treatment follow-up, family psychoeducation, and patient social skills training, and 60 patients received treatment as usual. Number of hospitalizations and length of hospital stay were primary outcome measures, and severity of psychopathology and severity of illness were secondary outcome measures. The quantitative primary and secondary outcomes measures were compared by using repeated-measures analysis. Results: Three members of the control group did not complete the study. The cumulative number of hospitalizations during the follow-up period was 55 for the control group and 26 for the intervention group. Length of stay was significantly greater in the control group compared with the intervention group (rate ratio=2.38, 95 confidence interval=2.17-2.62). Psychopathology was less severe in the intervention group compared with the control group (p<.001). Conclusions: Aftercare services are efficacious for reducing both the need for rehospitalization and the severity of psychopathology. © 2015, American Psychiatric Association. All rights reserved

Trend of suicide in Iran during 2009 to 2012: Epidemiological evidences from national suicide registration

Background: Suicide behaviors cause a large portion of Disability adjusted life years worldwide. Objectives: The aim of this research was to study the trend, correlations and discrepancy of registered suicide incidents in Iran from 2009 to 2012 using data from the Iranian suicide registry. Materials and Methods: Suicide registry entries throughout the country between 2009 and 2012, including suicidal attempts and suicides, were collected. Data on age, gender, occupational, marital and residential status along with suicide method, history of previous attempt and history of medical or mental disorders were registered by health service provision staff at the service centers. Geographic mapping and statistical analysis were performed. Results: Amongst the 252911 attempted suicides during the period, we found suicide attempt and suicide rate of 30.5 - 44.8 and 1.76 - 2.23 per 100000 individuals, respectively, denoting overall suicide fatality rate of 2.63. The rate of suicide attempt in different provinces ranged between 0.7 and 271.1 and the rate of suicide between 0.17 and 17.7 per 100000 individuals. Attempted suicides showed more fatality in males, elderly, widow/widowers, divorced and unemployed subjects as well as in residents of rural areas. The most common attempt methods were medication overdose (84), and the mostcommonsuicide methods were hanging (30.3), medications overdose (28.1) and self-burning (17.9); these methods are found at different rates in various parts of the world. Conclusions: While the registry could provide us the most valid data on suicide, the wide range of suicide and suicide attempt rates in different provinces not only could question this statement but also could highlight the importance of studying the ethnic/geographic variations in suicide epidemiology with improved suicide registry and surveillance systems. � 2016, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences

How much should we pay to deliver comprehensive mental and social health services? Experiences from Iran

Objective: Comprehensive mental and social health services is the new benefit package which had been aimed to provide mental health services to people who suffer from mental disorders. The aim of this study was to estimate the cost of plan and its drivers to provide evidence for decision-making by national policymakers. Method: We used the bottom-up costing approach to estimate the cost of plan. We identified the cost centers, services delivery process, and facilities. Data were collected via different sources and tools such as the new financial system, registration forms, and performance reporting forms. We categorized the cost into 4 groups and selected appropriate measures to estimate the cost. We estimate the total and unit cost for 3 levels in 2 scenarios by considering the 2017 prices. Results: Screening resulted in 8.9 new detection with a different incidence in urban and rural areas (urban: 16.5; rural: 2.7). Also, 61 842 million IRR was spent for the screening, diagnose, treatment, and rehabilitation of detected people in 2017. Personal cost is responsible for 90.6 and primary screening for 66.4 of the total cost. Conclusion: For the development of the program (from screening to rehabilitation) 530 513 IRR should be spent per capita. The cost of detection per client can vary due to differences in disease prevalence, especially treatment and rehabilitation costs. It is suggested to consider the variation of the prevalence in expanding the plan to the whole country. Integrating the services in primary health care lead to huge cost saving. Copyright © 2021 Tehran University of Medical Sciences

Emotional and behavioral problems of single parent vs. Two parent children: Imam Khomeini charity

Background: The aim of this survey is to compare the emotional and behavioral problems of children with only one parent versus those from two-parent families. We analyzed behavioral problems such as aggression, delinquency and socialization issues, as well as emotional problems such as depression, anxiety, and somatic complaints. Methods: Using a multi-stage cluster sampling, 10 of the 20 geographic regions covered by Imam Khomeini Charity were selected. Using systematic random sampling, 460 families with children aged 4-18 years were selected. All children were evaluated using the Child Behavior Check List (CBCL) to determine behavioral and emotional problems. Logistic regression tests were conducted to measure the effects variables, including age, gender, number of parents in the family, psychiatric history of each child and history of parental psychiatric treatment, on the internalizing, externalizing and total CBCL scores. A cut-off score of 64 was used to convert raw scores. Results: No differences were observed in CBCL subscales between single-parent children vs. children of two-parent families. Conclusion: Regarding the two-parent families among the study population, the results could not be generalized. As these families have qualified for assistance, the father cannot manage the family because of his disability, such as physical or mental problems. This minimizes the effect of having a father in a two-parent family, rendering them similar to single-parent families. Thus, differences were not observed between the two types of families. Further studies are necessary to compare single-parent families with two-parent families among the community. © 2008, Tehran University of Medical Sciences. All rights reserved

The effect of on-site and outreach-based needle and syringe programs in people who inject drugs in Kermanshah, Iran

Background: Needle and syringe programs (NSPs) are widely used to reduce harms associated with drug injecting. This study assessed the effect of facility-based (on-site services at drop-in centre) and outreach models of NSP on injection risk behaviours. Methods: Self-reported data from 455 people who injected drugs (PWID) during 2014 in Kermanshah, Iran, were examined to measure demographic characteristics and risk behaviors. Self-reported and program data were also assessed to identify their main source of injection equipment. Participants were divided into three sub-groups: facility-based NSP users, outreach NSP users and non-users (comparison group). Coarsened exact matching was used to make the three groups statistically equivalent based on age, place of residence, education and income, and groups were compared regarding the proportion of borrowing or lending of syringes/cookers, reusing syringes and recent HIV testing. Results: Overall, 76% of participants reported any NSP service use during the two months prior to interview. Only 23% (95%CI: 17-27) reported outreach NSP as their main source of syringes. Using facility-based NSP significantly decreased recent syringe borrowing (OR: 0.27, 95%CI: 0.10-0.70), recent syringe reuse (OR: 0.38, 95%CI: 0.23-0.68) and increased recent HIV testing (OR: 2.60, 95%CI: 1.48-4.56). Similar effects were observed among outreach NSP users; in addition, the outreach NSP model significantly reduced the chance of lending syringes (OR: 0.31, 95%CI: 0.15-0.60), compared to facility-based NSP (OR: 1.25, 95%CI: 0.74-2.17). Conclusion: These findings suggest that the outreach NSP model is as effective as facility-based NSP in reducing injection risk behaviours and increasing the rate of HIV testing. Outreach NSP was even more effective than facility-based in reducing the lending of syringes to others. Scaling up outreach NSP is an effective intervention to further reduce transmission of HIV via needle sharing

Inpatient buprenorphine-assisted withdrawal for treatment of vulnerable adolescents with opioids use disorder in Zahedan, Iran: An observational study

Background: There are limited data supporting the effectiveness of buprenorphine treatment for opioid use disorder among adolescents. Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate the outcomes of using buprenorphine for inpatient medically assisted withdrawal of vulnerable adolescents with opioid use disorder. Methods: Twelve consecutive vulnerable adolescents due to working or living in streets were admitted to the Child and Adolescent PsychiatricWard of Ali Ibn-e-Abi Talib Hospital for treatment of opioid use disorder using buprenorphine-assisted withdrawal. The clinical chart abstraction of patients' files was made to provide the baseline situation of the patients, as well as treatment progress at discharge and one and three months post-discharge. Results: All the complaints of pain and other withdrawal signs and symptoms decreased dramatically within the first four days of treatment. At one-month follow-up, all study participants were still in the foster care and the urine tests for morphine and methamphetaminewerenegative. At the three-month follow-up, the older sister of the onlyone15-year-old adolescent took the responsibility of his guardianship. The urine tests of all study participants were negative in month 3. Conclusions: Medically managed opioid withdrawal must be considered only as a part of a comprehensive psychosocial program providing a stable living environment, adolescent welfare, and custody services. The treatment program also proved its safety and effectiveness for the management of pain and other opioid withdrawal signs and symptoms among adolescents. © 2019, Author(s)

Client-Level Coverage of Needle and Syringe Program and High-Risk Injection Behaviors: A Case Study of People Who Inject Drugs in Kermanshah, Iran

Background: Needle-syringe programs (NSP) have been running in Iran since 2002. However, the coverage of such program among the NSP clients at the individual level was not studies yet. This study aimed to determine the client coverage of NSP and its correlation with high injection-related risk behaviors. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Kermanshah province, Iran, in 2014. 230 people who inject drugs (PWID) recruited from two drop-in centers (DICs) from April to September 2014, participated in a face-to-face interview to provide information related individual coverage of NSP, demographic characteristics, and injecting behaviors 30 days prior to the interview. Findings: Overall, the average of syringe coverage was 158% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 65.7-205.5], while 56% (95% CI = 40-97) have individual converge less than 100%. Needle/syringe sharing was significantly higher among individual with low NSP coverage [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.3-6.2]. About 85% participants with coverage of less than 100% reported reuse of syringe within the last 30 days (AOR = 3.2, 95% CI = 1.4-7.7). Conclusion: PWID are different regarding their NSP individual-level converges. There are certain clusters of PWID, who do not receive sufficient number of syringes. Given that insufficient individual syringe coverage level is highly associated with injection risk behaviors, reasons for such low converge need to be assessed and addressed carefully

Assessing measurement error in surveys using latent class analysis: application to self-reported illicit drug use in data from the Iranian Mental Health Survey

Latent class analysis (LCA) is a method of assessing and correcting measurement error in surveys. The local independence assumption in LCA assumes that indicators are independent from each other condition on the latent variable. Violation of this assumption leads to unreliable results. We explored this issue by using LCA to estimate the prevalence of illicit drug use in the Iranian Mental Health Survey. The following three indicators were included in the LCA models: five or more instances of using any illicit drug in the past 12 months (indicator A), any use of any illicit drug in the past 12 months (indicator B), and the self-perceived need of treatment services or having received treatment for a substance use disorder in the past 12 months (indicator C). Gender was also used in all LCA models as a grouping variable. One LCA model using indicators A and B, as well as 10 different LCA models using indicators A, B, and C, were fitted to the data. The three models that had the best fit to the data included the following correlations between indicators: (AC and AB), (AC), and (AC, BC, and AB). The estimated prevalence of illicit drug use based on these three models was 28.9, 6.2 and 42.2, respectively. None of these models completely controlled for violation of the local independence assumption. In order to perform unbiased estimations using the LCA approach, the factors violating the local independence assumption (behaviorally correlated error, bivocality, and latent heterogeneity) should be completely taken into account in all models using well-known methods

Incidence of self-reported interpersonal violence related physical injury in Iran

Background: Violence is the cause of death for 1.5 million people in a year. Objectives: Our study aimed to estimate the incidence rate of self-reported interpersonal violence related physical injury (VRPI) and its associated factors in Iran. Patients and Methods: The sample included people ranged from 15 to 64 years old who were residing in Iran. A total of 1525 clusters were selected from the whole country. Six families were selected from each cluster via a systematic random sampling method. Then, the residential units were identified and the interviewers contacted the inhabitants. In the next step, one of the family members was selected by using Kish grid method. The instrument was a researcher-made questionnaire and consisted of two sections; demographics and project related data. Face validity and content validity of our questionnaire were investigated based on expert opinions and the reliability was confirmed by a pilot study, as well. The inclusion criteria were considered for choosing the interviewers. An interviewer was assigned for each 42 participants (7 clusters). An educational seminar was held for the administrative managers (54 persons) and interviewers (230 persons) for a week. The field work was distributed among all 46 Medical Sciences universities in Iran. In each university, administrative issues were related to an executive director. Mann-Whitney U test and odds ratio were used to analyze the data with 95 confidence interval. α value was considered less than 5. Results: The frequency of VRPI among 7886 participants was 24 during the last three months. The incidence rate of interpersonal VRPI was estimated at 3.04 per 1000 population (95 CI: 2.66-3.42) during a three-month interval in Iran. The incidence was 4.72 per 1000 population (95 CI: 4.01-5.43) for males and 1.78 per 1000 population (95 CI: 1.39-2.17) for females during a three-month interval. The mean (SD) of age of the participants with and without a history of VRPI were 26.5 (7.21) and 33.05 (12.05) years, respectively (P = 0.008). Considering the participants� gender, 66.7 were males (OR = 2.66, 95 CI: 1.14-6.23). Khuzestan Province had the most VRPIs (25 of all VRPIs). Streets and roads were the places with the highest frequency of injury (50). The most frequent injured organ was the upper limb (54.17). The most prevalent type of injury was a superficial wound (50). Finally, the most common place of treatment was home (45.83). Conclusions: We determined the incidence rate of self-reported interpersonal VRPI for the first time in Iran based on a national survey. The injuries were more common among young men. We suggest consecutive national surveys with different data gathering methods and more sample sizes. © 2015, Iranian Red Crescent Medical Journal