Food-Web Models Predict Species Abundances in Response to Habitat Change

Plant and animal population sizes inevitably change following habitat loss, but the mechanisms underlying these changes are poorly understood. We experimentally altered habitat volume and eliminated top trophic levels of the food web of invertebrates that inhabit rain-filled leaves of the carnivorous pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. Path models that incorporated food-web structure better predicted population sizes of food-web constituents than did simple keystone species models, models that included only autecological responses to habitat volume, or models including both food-web structure and habitat volume. These results provide the first experimental confirmation that trophic structure can determine species abundances in the face of habitat loss.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog

The effects of climate change on density-dependent population dynamics of aquatic invertebrates

Global climate change has the potential to alter aquatic communities through changes in evapotranspiration and increased variability in precipitation. We used aquatic mesocosms to test the impacts of variable precipitation on population dynamics of commonn mosquito (Culicidae) and midge (Chironomidae) larvae that inhabit vernal pools. In a mixed deciduous forest in northern Vermont, USA, we orthogonally crossed seven levels of mean water level (increased rainfall) with seven levels of water level coefficient of variation (more variable rainfall) to simulate a broad array of climate change scenarios in 49 experimental mesocosms. The average abundance of Culicidae was highest at low water levels, whereas the average abundance of Chironomidae was highest at higher water levels and low variability in water level. Treatments and environmental and spatial covariates collectively explained 49% of the variance in mean abundance. For both taxa, we fit hierarchical Bayesian models to each 16-week time series to estimate the parameters in a Gompertz logistic equation of population growth with density dependence. We found that Culicidae population growth rate increased with decreasing water levels and that 87% of the variance in Chironomidae density dependence could be explained by treatment. Collectively, these results suggest that climate change can alter abundances aquatic invertebrate taxa but not necessarily through the same mechanism on all populations. In the case of Culicidae the abundance is affected by changes in growth rate, and in Chironomidae by changes in the strength of density dependence. © 2011 The Authors. Oikos © 2011 Nordic Society Oikos

Pollen, Tapetum, and Orbicule Development in Colletia paradoxa

Tapetum, orbicule, and pollen grain ontogeny in Colletia paradoxa and Discaria americana were studied with transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The ultrastructural changes observed during the different stages of development in the tapetal cells and related to orbicule and pollen grain formation are described. The proorbicules have the appearance of lipid globule, and their formation is related to the endoplasmic reticulum of rough type (ERr). This is the first report on the presence of orbicules in the family Rhamnaceae. Pollen grains are shed at the bicellular stage

Improving the precision of estimates of the frequency of rare events

The probability of a rare event is usually estimated directly as the number of times the event occurs divided by the total sample size. Unfortunately, the precision of this estimate is low. For typical sample sizes of N \u3c 100 in ecological studies, the coefficient of variation (cv) of this estimate of the probability of a rare event can exceed 300%. Sample sizes on the order of 103–104 observations are needed to reduce the cv to below 10%. If it is impractical or impossible to increase the sample size, auxiliary data can be used to improve the precision of the estimate. We describe four approaches for using auxiliary data to improve the precision of estimates of the probability of a rare event: (1) Bayesian analysis that includes prior information about the probability; (2) stratification that incorporates information on the heterogeneity in the population; (3) regression models that account for information correlated with the probability; and (4) inclusion of aggregated data collected at larger spatial or temporal scales. These approaches are illustrated using data on the probability of capture of vespulid wasps by the insectivorous plant Darlingtonia californica. All four methods increase the precision of the estimate relative to the simple frequency-based estimate (absolute precision = 1.26, relative precision [cv] = 70%): stratification (absolute precision = 1.10, cv = 62%); regression models (absolute precision = 1.59, cv = 55%); Bayesian analysis with an informative prior probability distribution (absolute precision = 4.28, cv = 47%); and using temporally aggregated data (absolute precision = 6.75, cv = 36%). When informative auxiliary data is available, we recommend including it when estimating the probability of rare events

Modern Methods of Estimating Biodiversity from Presence-Absence Surveys

Organismic and Evolutionary BiologyOther Research Uni

MaxEnt versus MaxLike: Empirical comparisons with ant species distributions

MaxEnt is one of the most widely used tools in ecology, biogeography, and evolution for modeling and mapping species distributions using presence-only occurrence records and associated environmental covariates. Despite its popularity, the exponential model implemented by MaxEnt does not directly estimate occurrence probability, the natural quantity of interest when modeling species distributions. Instead, MaxEnt generates an index of relative habitat suitability. MaxLike, a newly introduced maximum-likelihood technique, has been shown to overcome the problem of directly estimating the probability of occurrence using presence-only data. However, the performance and relative merits of MaxEnt and MaxLike remain largely untested, especially when modeling species with relatively few occurrence data that encompass only a portion of the geographic range of the species. Using georeferenced occurrence records for six species of ants in New England, we provide comparisons of MaxEnt and MaxLike. We show that by most quantitative metrics, the performance of MaxLike exceeds that of MaxEnt, regardless of whether MaxEnt models account for sampling bias and include greater model complexity than implemented in MaxLike. More importantly, for most species, the relative suitability index estimated by MaxEnt often was poorly correlated with the probability of occurrence estimated by MaxLike, suggesting that the two methods are estimating different quantities. For species distribution modeling, MaxLike, and similar models that are based on an explicit sampling process and that directly estimate probability of occurrence, should be considered as important alternatives to the widely-used MaxEnt framework. © 2013 Fitzpatrick et al

Anthropogenic Noise Changes Arthropod Abundances

Anthropogenic noise is a widespread and growing form of sensory pollution associated with the expansion of human infrastructure. One specific source of constant and intense noise is that produced by compressors used for the extraction and transportation of natural gas. Terrestrial arthropods play a central role in many ecosystems, and given that numerous species rely upon airborne sounds and substrate-borne vibrations in their life histories, we predicted that increased background sound levels or the presence of compressor noise would influence their distributions. In the second largest natural gas field in the United States (San Juan Basin, New Mexico, USA), we assessed differences in the abundances of terrestrial arthropod families and community structure as a function of compressor noise and background sound level. Using pitfall traps, we simultaneously sampled five sites adjacent to well pads that possessed operating compressors, and five alternate, quieter well pad sites that lacked compressors, but were otherwise similar. We found a negative association between sites with compressor noise or higher levels of background sound and the abundance of five arthropod families and one genus, a positive relationship between loud sites and the abundance of one family, and no relationship between noise level or compressor presence and abundance for six families and two genera. Despite these changes, we found no evidence of community turnover as a function of background sound level or site type (compressor and noncompressor). Our results indicate that anthropogenic noise differentially affects the abundances of some arthropod families. These preliminary findings point to a need to determine the direct and indirect mechanisms driving these observed responses. Given the diverse and important ecological functions provided by arthropods, changes in abundances could have ecological implications. Therefore, we recommend the consideration of arthropods in the environmental assessment of noise-producing infrastructure

Organic-Matter Loading Determines Regime Shifts and Alternative States in an Aquatic Ecosystem

Slow changes in underlying state variables can lead to “tipping points,” rapid transitions between alternative states (“regime shifts”) in a wide range of complex systems. Tipping points and regime shifts routinely are documented retrospectively in long time series of observational data. Experimental induction of tipping points and regime shifts is rare, but could lead to new methods for detecting impending tipping points and forestalling regime shifts. By using controlled additions of detrital organic matter (dried, ground arthropod prey), we experimentally induced a shift from aerobic to anaerobic states in a miniature aquatic ecosystem: the self-contained pools that form in leaves of the carnivorous northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea. In unfed controls, the concentration of dissolved oxygen ($[O_2]$) in all replicates exhibited regular diurnal cycles associated with daytime photosynthesis and nocturnal plant respiration. In low prey-addition treatments, the regular diurnal cycles of $[O_2]$ were disrupted, but a regime shift was not detected. In high prey-addition treatments, the variance of the $[O_2]$ time series increased until the system tipped from an aerobic to an anaerobic state. In these treatments, replicate $[O_2]$ time series predictably crossed a tipping point at ∼45 h as $[O_2]$ was decoupled from diurnal cycles of photosynthesis and respiration. Increasing organic-matter loading led to predictable changes in $[O_2]$ dynamics, with high loading consistently driving the system past a well-defined tipping point. The Sarracenia microecosystem functions as a tractable experimental system in which to explore the forecasting and management of tipping points and alternative regimes.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog