Summer air temperature anomalies in Europe during the century 1811-1910

Solar cycle, volcanic eruptions, sea surface temperature anomalies (ENSO) and increase of the concentration of the greenhouse gases are the main forcing factors in the evolution of the Earth climate. Therefore, a sizeable amount of research is devoted to assess the impact of these factors on the climate parameters, as the mean air temperature. In the present work a study concerning the behaviour of the summer temperatures over Europe during the century 1811-1910 is carried out. The possible influence of the volcanic eruptions and ENSO has been also analysed. The results show the presence of a volcanic signal in the summer temperature during the year following an eruption, even if the anomalous coldest summers do not seem to be driven by the volcanic activity. The connection between thermal anomalies and ENSO events is more uncertain because of the paucity of data. Finally, the anomalous summers—both very cold and very warm—can be explained in terms of the atmospheric circulation, since cold events seem to be associated to persistent blocking systems and warm events are associated to persistent high-pressure patterns

Italian research on the Antarctic atmosphere

In this work after a short introduction on the structure of Programma Nazionale di Ricerche in Antartide, the different researches on atmospheric physics developed by Italian scientists are presented. The international activities are described, with particular attention both to APE experiment and the setting up of the new base in Dome-C. The results obtained are also discussed and the new projects proposed by SCAR or other international bodies are recalled. The reduction of funds and fall in young people interested in scientifi c studies represent the main problems for the future work

Rainfall over the Central-Western Mediterranean basin in the period 1951-1995. Part I: precipitation trends

Climatic changes due to the anthropic enhancement of the greenhouse effect could modify the hydrological cycle, resulting in a reduction of the precipitation over the Mediterranean basin. In particular, a negative trend over the Italian peninsula could occur with prolonged periods of dryness as that recorded in the biennium 1988-1990. In order to verify if a climatic variability is already detectable, the pluviometric regime over the Central-Western Mediterranean is here analysed for the period 1951-1995. The analysis indicates that a reduction of about 20% in the total precipitation has occurred, which is statistically significant and can have serious impact on the availability of the water supplies

Numerical simulation of Crotone flood: Storm evolution

A nested-grid primitive equation model (RAMS, version 4.3) is used to simulate a high-precipitation (HP) storm which occurred in Calabria, Southern Italy. Storm produced intense rainfall over the city of Crotone, in the central Ionian coast of Calabrian peninsula, during the morning of 14 October 1996. Precipitation spell lasted for two hours, was highly localized and rainfall rates were intense (> 60 mm/h). The aim of this paper is to reproduce precipitation measured by raingauges and to highlight local and synoptic conditions that determined the storm, in order to acquire insight into the convective environment that produced the event. Four telescoping nested grids allow to simulate scales ranging from the synoptic scale down to the high-precipitation storm. All convection in the simulation is initiated by resolving explicitly vertical motion and subsequent condensation-latent heating from the model microphysics;no warm bubbles are used to start or trigger the storm. The model is able to well simulate measured precipitation both in terms of total precipitation and rain intensity. Also the position of the major spell is acceptable

Quantitative precipitation forecast of the Soverato flood: The role of orography and surface fluxes

During the night between 9 and 10 September 2000 a strong flood occurred in Soverato, a small town of Ionian coast of Calabria, killing 13 people. This was the top of an intense precipitation event occurred over the region during 8th, 9th, 10th September. In this paper the study of this event is performed, both analysing the synoptical aspects and using a numerical meteorological model either to reproduce the precipitation fields or to highlight some mesoscale features that determined the very intense and abundant rainfall. After a short description of the case study and presentation of measured rainfall fields, simulations are discussed. The study is based on three numerical simulations performed using the CSU-RAMS model (Regional mesoscale Modeling System) developed at Colorado State University and daily used at Crati Scrl to produce weather forecasts over Calabria peninsula. The first run is the control case and assesses the model ability to reproduce the flood cumulated rainfall by comparison with rain gauge data collected by the “Istituto Idrografico e Mareografico-Dipartimento di Catanzaro”. Second simulation is made to assess the influence of orographic barriers on the precipitation field, while third simulation evaluates the sensitivity to latent and sensible heat fluxes. Results indicate that the model simulate in satisfactory way the location and amount of rainfall, even if some problems are open and require more investigations

The application of LEPS technique for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) in Southern Italy

International audienceThis paper reports preliminary results of a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), based on RAMS, for eight case studies of moderate-intense precipitation over Calabria, the southernmost tip of the Italian peninsula. LEPS aims to transfer the benefits of a probabilistic forecast from global to regional scales in countries where local orographic forcing is a key factor to force convection. To accomplish this task and to limit computational time, in order to implement LEPS operational, we perform a cluster analysis of ECMWF-EPS runs. Starting from the 51 members that forms the ECMWF-EPS we generate five clusters. For each cluster a representative member is selected and used to provide initial and dynamic boundary conditions to RAMS, whose integrations generate LEPS. RAMS runs have 12 km horizontal resolution. Hereafter this ensemble will be referred also as LEPS_12L30. To analyze the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution on quantitative precipitation forecast, LEPS_12L30 forecasts are compared to a lower resolution ensemble, based on RAMS that has 50 km horizontal resolution and 51 members, nested in each ECMWF-EPS member. Hereafter this ensemble will be also referred as LEPS_50L30. LEPS_12L30 and LEPS_50L30 results were compared subjectively for all case studies but, for brevity, results are reported for two "representative" cases only. Subjective analysis is based on ensemble-mean precipitation and probability maps. Moreover, a short summary of objective scores. Maps and scores are evaluated against reports of Calabria regional raingauges network. Results show better LEPS_12L30 performance compared to LEPS_50L30. This is obtained for all case studies selected and strongly suggests the importance of the enhanced horizontal resolution, compared to ensemble population, for Calabria, at least for set-ups and case studies selected in this work

The meteorological model RAMS at Crati Scrl

International audienceAt Crati Scrl an operational version of RAMS 4.3 (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) was implemented in January 2001. This paper aims to give a first assessment of model performances for quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). In essence, the effects of enhanced horizontal grid resolution over Calabria, using a 6km spacing domain nested in a 30km resolution parent grid, is studied. To cope with this problem two integrations sets are discussed using two model resolutions. Integrations are performed daily for six months. ECMWF 12:00UTC forecast cycle is used for initial and dynamic boundary conditions. Performances are evaluated by scores computed from model outputs and raingauge measurements coming from Calabrian regional network

A study of rainfall in the Roman area in the years 1951--2000

The daily rainfall data collected in the second half of the last century at 31 climatic stations in Lazio, Italy, have been subjected to statistical analysis in order to describe the pluviometric regime of the whole area on a multi-decadal time scale. The stations, for their geographical distribution within the region under study, are apt to represent different climatic zones, namely, a coastal, a rural, a suburban and an urban zone. The data have been treated both as time series and as geographicalstatisticalv ariates with the double aim, first, to verify if in the area under study any changes in the yearly precipitation rate, frequency and its distribution over different classes of rain intensity, have occurred in the last 50 years; second, to evidence a possible correlation between the intensity of precipitation and any of some environmental variables such as altitude, distance from the coastline and distance from the urban site. As for the first issue, it can be concluded that the precipitations over the Roman area in the period 1951–2000 show no significant trend; in particular, no trend is visible in any of the single classes of rain intensity, both absolute and percentile-based, considering either their frequency or their percent contribution to the total. As for the second issue, significant correlations have been found in the spatial distribution of rainfall with any of the relevant environmental variables mentioned above. The results of the analysis also show that in the urban area a less amount of rain seem to fall than in the surroundings zones, a result that seems rather anomalous in consideration of the several known factors that favour the intensification of the rainfall in the city with respect to its surroundings. A detailed statistical characterization of all the single 31 stations over the whole period is also given via a separate study of the durations of droughts and of the statistics of rainy days, using best fits based on the Weibull probability distribution

The precipitation field over Calabria: Large-scale correlations

In this paper we analyze the variability of the precipitation field over Calabria for the period 1948-1990 and its correlation with large-scale flow. Precipitation data are from “Istituto Mareografico ed Idrografico” database, have a monthly basis and cover the period 1921-1990. It is shown that precipitation is concentrated in the cold semester, from October to April, and that there is a large annual-to-annual variability. After studying correlation between precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), rainfall variability is further discussed by relating the precipitation standardized anomaly index to surface pressure, 500 hPa geopotential height and sea surface temperature. These dataset are derived from NCAR reanalysis project, and cover the 1948-2002 period. Due to temporal coverage of our databases the analysis is limited to 1948-1990. While a weaker correlation with NAO emerges, compared to other areas of the Mediterranean basin, precipitation over Calabria shows an interesting correlation with another dipolar structure located further East. This correlation is mainly related to the strength of Azores anticyclone over the Mediterranean area in the cold season and to the oscillation of Siberian high

Thermally forced mesoscale atmospheric flow over complex terrain in Southern Italy

In this paper we discuss some results concerning the analysis of the local atmospheric flow over the southern part of Italy, the Calabria peninsula, using a mesoscale numerical model. Our study is focused on two different but related topics: a detailed analysis of the meteorology and climate of the region based on a data collection, reported in Colacino et al., Elementi di Climatologia della Calabria, edited by A. GUERRINI, Collana P. S., Clima, Ambiente e Territorio nel Mezzogiorno (CNR, Roma) 1997, pp. 218, and an analysis of the results based on the simulated flow produced using a mesoscale numerical model. The Colorado State University mesoscale numerical model has been applied to study several different climatic situations of particular interest for the region, as discussed in this paper. In particular, the effects on the circulation over the region, due to the variation of different physical parameters as large-scale flow intensity, vertical potential temperature gradients, soil moisture, have been studied, and the seasonal variability of the Thermally Forced Mesoscale Circulations (TFMCs) is presented. The results show that thermally forced mesoscale circulation in the region is rather complex, and more pronounced than in regions located at the same latitude. The cells are strongly supported by the presence of the two breeze systems (sea-land and mountain-valley), and their location, shape and intensity are affected by the intensity of the large-scale flow, while atmospheric stability and soil moisture have a weaker influence on the TFMC structure. This study of the dynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere in this region, and particularly the analysis of the wind field, is preliminary for other related topics of research as agrometeorology, wind energy exploitation, environmental impact assessment, and for research related to tourism