Value-at-risk forecasting of the CARBS Indices

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to use calibrated univariate GARCH family models to forecast volatility and value at risk (VaR) of the CARBS indices and a global minimum variance portfolio (GMVP) constructed using the CARBS equity indices. the reliability of the different volatility forecasts are tested using the mean absolute error (MAE) and the mean squared error (MSE). The rolling forecast of VaR is tested using a back-testing procedure. The results indicate that the use of a rolling forecast from a GARCH model when estimating VaR for the CARBS indices and the GMVP is not a reliable method

Solving an historical puzzle: Radiocarbon dating the Capitoline she wolf

The Capitoline she wolf is a Bronze statue located at the “Capitoline Museums” in Rome, Italy. The extraordinary cultural and symbolic importance of the statue is mainly related to the myth of the Capitoline she wolf and to the legendary origin of the city of Rome. Though traditionally considered an Etruscan bronze, recently a much more recent age was suggested on the base of consideration related to the used casting technique. In this paper we present the results of an AMS radiocarbon dating campaign carried out on the organic residues found in the casting cores recovered from the inner part of the statue. The obtained results firmly anchor the statue to the XI-XII centuries CE, in the Middle Ages

14C dating on marine bio-constructions from a submarine cave in the Adriatic Sea

A new type of “speleothem” was recently found and described in submarine caves along the Southern coast of the Adriatic Sea in Italy. Previous studies demonstrated the fully biogenic and submarine origin of these structures which appeared to be formed by calcareous tubules of worms, embedded in a much finer texture matrix. AMS radiocarbon dating analyses allowed the determination of the age of these structures and to study the temporal evolution of their growth rate. In this paper, we report new dates obtained on the matrix around the already dated core tubules. Compositional analyses demonstrated that the matrix is mainly formed by calcium carbonate and AMS radiocarbon age measurements performed at CEDAD suggest its biogenic origin. Absolute ages on the matrix are statistically consistent internally and with the calcareous tubules. The obtained results are highly complementary to other studies being performed in order to identify the biological processes governing the formation and growth of these structures

La presenza della capsula è necessaria per lo sviluppo di meningite pneumococcica nel topo

La presenza della capsula è necessaria per lo sviluppo di meningite pneumococcica nel top

Bigraphical Models of Context-aware Systems

As part of ongoing work on evaluating Milner's bigraphical reactive systems, we investigate bigraphical models of context-aware systems, a facet of ubiquitous computing. We find that naively encoding such systems in bigraphs is somewhat awkward; and we propose a more sophisticated modeling technique, introducing plato-graphical models, alleviating this awkwardness. We argu

The TIGR4 strain of Streptococcus pneumoniae is phagocytosed but resists intracellular killing by microglia in experimental pneumococcal meningitis

The TIGR4 strain of Streptococcus pneumoniae is phagocytosed but resists intracellular killing by microglia in experimental pneumococcal meningiti