IFKIS - a basis for managing avalanche risk in settlements and on roads in Switzerland

After the avalanche winter of 1999 in Switzerland, which caused 17&nbsp;deaths and damage of over CHF&nbsp;600&nbsp;mill. in buildings and on roads, the project IFKIS, aimed at improving the basics of organizational measures (closure of roads, evacuation etc.) in avalanche risk management, was initiated. <P style='line-height: 20px;'> The three main parts of the project were the development of a compulsory checklist for avalanche safety services, a modular education and training course program and an information system for safety services. The information system was developed in order to improve both the information flux between the national centre for avalanche forecasting, the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, and the local safety services on the one hand and the communication between avalanche safety services in the communities on the other hand. <P style='line-height: 20px;'> The results of this project make a valuable contribution to strengthening organizational measures in avalanche risk management and to closing the gaps, which became apparent during the avalanche winter of 1999. They are not restricted to snow avalanches but can also be adapted for dealing with other natural hazard processes and catastrophes

Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions

Snow avalanches are recurring natural hazards that affect the population and infrastructure in mountainous regions, such as in the recent avalanche winters of 2018 and 2019, when considerable damage was caused by avalanches throughout the Alps. Hazard decision makers need detailed information on the spatial distribution of avalanche hazards and risks to prioritize and apply appropriate adaptation strategies and mitigation measures and thus minimize impacts. Here, we present a novel risk assessment approach for assessing the spatial distribution of avalanche risk by combining large-scale hazard mapping with a state-of-the-art risk assessment tool, where risk is understood as the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Hazard disposition is modeled using the large-scale hazard indication mapping method RAMMS::LSHIM (Rapid Mass Movement Simulation::Large-Scale Hazard Indication Mapping), and risks are assessed using the probabilistic Python-based risk assessment platform CLIMADA, developed at ETH Zürich. Avalanche hazard mapping for scenarios with a 30-, 100- and 300-year return period is based on a high-resolution terrain model, 3 d snow depth increase, automatically determined potential release areas and protection forest data. Avalanche hazard for 40 000 individual snow avalanches is expressed as avalanche intensity, measured as pressure. Exposure is represented by a detailed building layer indicating the spatial distribution of monetary assets. The vulnerability of buildings is defined by damage functions based on the software EconoMe, which is in operational use in Switzerland. The outputs of the hazard, exposure and vulnerability analyses are combined to quantify the risk in spatially explicit risk maps. The risk considers the probability and intensity of snow avalanche occurrence, as well as the concentration of vulnerable, exposed buildings. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed to capture inherent variability in the input parameters. This new risk assessment approach allows us to quantify avalanche risk over large areas and results in maps displaying the spatial distribution of risk at specific locations. Large-scale risk maps can assist decision makers in identifying areas where avalanche hazard mitigation and/or adaption is needed.</p

Maternal effects on the development of vocal communication in wild chimpanzees

Early-life experiences, such as maternal care received, influence adult social integration and survival. We examine what changes to social behavior through ontogeny lead to these lifelong effects, particularly whether early-life maternal environment impacts the development of social communication. Chimpanzees experience prolonged social communication development. Focusing on a central communicative trait, the "pant-hoot" contact call used to solicit social engagement, we collected cross-sectional data on wild chimpanzees (52 immatures and 36 mothers). We assessed early-life socioecological impacts on pant-hoot rates across development, specifically: mothers' gregariousness, age, pant-hoot rates and dominance rank, maternal loss, and food availability, controlling for current maternal effects. We found that early-life maternal gregariousness correlated positively with offspring pant-hoot rates, while maternal loss led to reduced pant-hoot rates across development. Males had steeper developmental trajectories in pant-hoot rates than females. We demonstrate the impact of maternal effects on developmental trajectories of a rarely investigated social trait, vocal production

Photo-induced formation of DNA adducts of 2,2&#39;,4,4&#39;,5,5&#39;-hexachlorobiphenyl in cultured human cells.

Association of the PCB congener 2,2&#39;,4,4&#39;,5,5&#39;-hexachlorobiphenyl (6-CB) with cell nuclei has been studied in cultured monolayer human Chang liver cells. Photo-induced formation of covalent bonds determined 6-CB binding to protein of cell nuclei and to DNA. Nuclear binding of 6-CB approached equilibrium after approximately 30 min of incubation. Photo-induced binding in vitro to purified Chang liver cell DNA substantiated direct interaction of the PCB congener with DNA. In monolayer cells, low levels of photo-induced 6-CB DNA adducts could be detected using the very sensitive 32P-postlabeling method. Adduct formation was dependent on 6-CB concentration as well as on incubation time. Highest adduct levels were in the range of 2 X 10(-8). Model reactions in vitro showed photo-induced binding of 6-CB to individual purine deoxyribonucleotide-3&#39;-phosphates. The results demonstrate rapid intracellular movement of the PCB congener into the cell nucleus. The vast majority is associated with nuclear protein, minute amounts of 6-CB are found proximate to the DNA helix as evidenced by photo-induced adducts of purine nucleotides

Bildgebung in der individualisierten Uroonkologie

The recent introduction of new diagnostic techniques has revolutionized uro-oncolgy. In addition to multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI), prostate-specific membrane antigen positron-emission tomography (PSMA-PET) plays an increasingly import role in daily practice. The introduction of three-dimensional (3D) printing technologies in the context of robot-assisted uro-oncological surgery represents a first step towards individualized 3D imaging. In the era of immunotherapy, imaging is challenged by new diagnostic criteria (iRECIST) and immune-related adverse effects

Development of avalanche risk between 1950 and 2000 in the Municipality of Davos, Switzerland

International audienceIn recent years, risk assessment has become increasingly important for the protection of settlements against natural hazards because the public authorities have to economise their budgets and therefore to legitimate their investments. To quantify risk, information is needed on both, recurrence intervals of the potentially damaging natural processes and on the associated damage potential. In the past, high efforts were undertaken to assess the former, while the latter was almost ignored. The aim of this study was to determine the development of the avalanche risk in the inhabited areas of the municipality of Davos, canton of Grisons, Switzerland, for the period between 1950 and 2000. The extent of avalanche prone areas was quantified using the numerical avalanche model AVAL-1D and the current legal hazard maps. The damage potential was quantified by the number and reinstatement values of buildings and by the number of persons per building. It has been demonstrated that, contrary to the frequently expressed statement that the vulnerability of communities has increased, the risk for this settlement in fact decreased substantially. This can mainly be attributed to the realisation of mitigation measures, such as defence structures in avalanche starting zones. The only exception regarding the development of risk was in the category of residential buildings, were an increase in risk was already detectable at medium recurrence intervals. This is remarkable because methods of land use planning, such as hazard mapping, are intended to protect residential buildings from the impact of hazardous processes. However, general statements referring to a larger area (region, country) might be difficult to make, since small-scale disparities have a very important influence on the diversification of risk and risk management. Furthermore, it has to be emphasized that the results are highly dependent on the assumptions made in this study

Proportional loss functions for debris flow events

Quantitative risk assessments of debris flows and other hydrogeological hazards require the analyst to predict damage potentials. A common way to do so is by use of proportional loss functions. In this paper, we analyze a uniquely rich dataset of 132 buildings that were damaged in one of five large debris flow events in Switzerland. Using the double generalized linear model, we estimate proportional loss functions that may be used for various prediction purposes including hazard mapping, landscape planning, and insurance pricing. Unlike earlier analyses, we control for confounding effects of building characteristics, site specifics, and process intensities as well as for overdispersion in the data. Our results suggest that process intensity parameters are the most meaningful predictors of proportional loss sizes. Cross-validation tests suggest that the mean absolute prediction errors of our models are in the range of 11%, underpinning the accurateness of the approach

The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential

Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential