Forecasting Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika cases in Recife, Brazil: a spatio-temporal approach based on climate conditions, health notifications and machine learning

Dengue has become a challenge for many countries. Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti spread rapidly over the last decades. The emergence chikungunya fever and zika in South America poses new challenges to vector monitoring and control. This situation got worse from 2015 and 2016, with the rapid spread of chikungunya, causing fever and muscle weakness, and Zika virus, related to cases of microcephaly in newborns and the occurrence of Guillain-Barret syndrome, an autoimmune disease that affects the nervous system. The objective of this work was to construct a tool to forecast the distribution of arboviruses transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti by implementing dengue, zika and chikungunya transmission predictors based on machine learning, focused on multilayer perceptrons neural networks, support vector machines and linear regression models. As a case study, we investigated forecasting models to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of cases from primary health notification data and climate variables (wind velocity, temperature and pluviometry) from Recife, Brazil, from 2013 to 2016, including 2015’s outbreak. The use of spatio-temporal analysis over multilayer perceptrons and support vector machines results proved to be very effective in predicting the distribution of arbovirus cases. The models indicate that the southern and western regions of Recife were very susceptible to outbreaks in the period under investigation. The proposed approach could be useful to support health managers and epidemiologists to prevent outbreaks of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and promote public policies for health promotion and sanitation

A review exploring the overarching burden of Zika virus with emphasis on epidemiological case studies from Brazil

This paper explores the main factors for mosquito-borne transmission of the Zika virus by focusing on environmental, anthropogenic, and social risks. A literature review was conducted bringing together related information from this genre of research from peer-reviewed publications. It was observed that environmental conditions, especially precipitation, humidity, and temperature, played a role in the transmission. Furthermore, anthropogenic factors including sanitation, urbanization, and environmental pollution promote the transmission by affecting the mosquito density. In addition, socioeconomic factors such as poverty as well as social inequality and low-quality housing have also an impact since these are social factors that limit access to certain facilities or infrastructure which, in turn, promote transmission when absent (e.g., piped water and screened windows). Finally, the paper presents short-, mid-, and long-term preventative solutions together with future perspectives. This is the first review exploring the effects of anthropogenic aspects on Zika transmission with a special emphasis in Brazil

It Costs to Be Clean and Fit: Energetics of Comfort Behavior in Breeding-Fasting Penguins

), seabirds known to fast for up to one month during incubation shifts ashore.A time budget was estimated from focal and scan sampling field observations and the energy cost of comfort activities was calculated from the associated increase in heart rate (HR) during comfort episodes, using previously determined equations relating HR to energy expenditure. We show that incubating birds spent 22% of their daily time budget in comfort behavior (with no differences between day and night) mainly devoted to preening (73%) and head/body shaking (16%). During comfort behavior, energy expenditure averaged 1.24 times resting metabolic rate (RMR) and the corresponding energy cost (i.e., energy expended in excess to RMR) was 58 kJ/hr. Energy expenditure varied greatly among various types of comfort behavior, ranging from 1.03 (yawning) to 1.78 (stretching) times RMR. Comfort behavior contributed 8.8–9.3% to total daily energy expenditure and 69.4–73.5% to energy expended daily for activity. About half of this energy was expended caring for plumage.This study is the first to estimate the contribution of comfort behavior to overall energy budget in a free-living animal. It shows that although breeding on a tight energy budget, king penguins devote a substantial amount of time and energy to comfort behavior. Such findings underline the importance of comfort behavior for the fitness of colonial seabirds

Skeletal Morphology of Opius dissitus and Biosteres carbonarius (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), with a Discussion of Terminology

The Braconidae, a family of parasitic wasps, constitute a major taxonomic challenge with an estimated diversity of 40,000 to 120,000 species worldwide, only 18,000 of which have been described to date. The skeletal morphology of braconids is still not adequately understood and the terminology is partly idiosyncratic, despite the fact that anatomical features form the basis for most taxonomic work on the group. To help address this problem, we describe the external skeletal morphology of Opius dissitus Muesebeck 1963 and Biosteres carbonarius Nees 1834, two diverse representatives of one of the least known and most diverse braconid subfamilies, the Opiinae. We review the terminology used to describe skeletal features in the Ichneumonoidea in general and the Opiinae in particular, and identify a list of recommend terms, which are linked to the online Hymenoptera Anatomy Ontology. The morphology of the studied species is illustrated with SEM-micrographs, photos and line drawings. Based on the examined species, we discuss intraspecific and interspecific morphological variation in the Opiinae and point out character complexes that merit further study

Changes to the Fossil Record of Insects through Fifteen Years of Discovery

The first and last occurrences of hexapod families in the fossil record are compiled from publications up to end-2009. The major features of these data are compared with those of previous datasets (1993 and 1994). About a third of families (>400) are new to the fossil record since 1994, over half of the earlier, existing families have experienced changes in their known stratigraphic range and only about ten percent have unchanged ranges. Despite these significant additions to knowledge, the broad pattern of described richness through time remains similar, with described richness increasing steadily through geological history and a shift in dominant taxa, from Palaeoptera and Polyneoptera to Paraneoptera and Holometabola, after the Palaeozoic. However, after detrending, described richness is not well correlated with the earlier datasets, indicating significant changes in shorter-term patterns. There is reduced Palaeozoic richness, peaking at a different time, and a less pronounced Permian decline. A pronounced Triassic peak and decline is shown, and the plateau from the mid Early Cretaceous to the end of the period remains, albeit at substantially higher richness compared to earlier datasets. Origination and extinction rates are broadly similar to before, with a broad decline in both through time but episodic peaks, including end-Permian turnover. Origination more consistently exceeds extinction compared to previous datasets and exceptions are mainly in the Palaeozoic. These changes suggest that some inferences about causal mechanisms in insect macroevolution are likely to differ as well

Adsorption characteristics of acid dyes by the live activated sludge

Adsorption is the one of the aspects of abiotic removal and in current work, the adsorption properties of two acid dyes by live activated sludge were examined in a batch system. The dyes tested for the adsorption by live activated sludge were Lanaset yellow 4GN and Lanaset red G. Both acid dyes adsorbed by the live activated sludge to some degree and the equilibrium was obtained with in 160 min. The data obtained from equilibrium studies fit to both Langmuir and Freundlich models. Based on the Langmuir model, qmax values were found 69.48 and 144.91 mg/g for Lanaset yellow 4GN and Lanaset red G, respectively. Gibbs free energies of adsorption were also calculated and negative values were found for each dye and sludge system. Intraparticle diffusion was found significant for both dyes tested and overall adsorption process was best described by pseudo second order model. Rate constants for each of the model were also calculated

The use of waterworks sludge for the treatment of vegetable oil refinery industry wastewater

PubMedID: 15176752Water treatment works using coagulation/flocculation in the process stream will generate a waste sludge. This sludge is termed as ferric, alum, or lime sludge based on which coagulant was primarily used. The works in Adana, Turkey uses ferric chloride. The potential for using this sludge for the treatment of vegetable oil refinery industry wastewater by coagulation has been investigated. The sludge acted as a coagulant and excellent oil and grease, COD and TSS removal efficiencies were obtained. The optimum conditions were a pH of 6 and a sludge dose of 1100 mg SS 1-1. The efficiency of sludge was also compared with alum and ferric chloride for the vegetable oil refinery wastewater. At doses of 1300–1900 mg SS 1-1, the sludge was as effective as ferric chloride and alum at removing oil and grease, COD, and TSS. In addition, various combinations of ferric chloride and waterworks sludge were also examined. Under the condition of 12.5 mg 1-1 fresh ferric chloride and 1000 mg SS 1-1 sludge dose, 99% oil and grease 99% TSS and 83% COD removal efficiencies were obtained. © 2004 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

Adsorption of diclofenac and paracetamol by activated sludge [diklofenak ve parasetamol'ün aktif çamur tarafından adsorbsiyonu]

In this study, the removal properties of two anti-inflammatory pharmaceuticals namely diclofenac and paracetamol through the adsorption by activated sludge were investigated in a batch system. Each pharmaceutical was found to be adsorbed by the activated sludge. It was found that the adsorption took place substantially at the first 20 to 40 minutes of the contact time and reached steady-state for both pharmaceuticals tested. Results obtained from the equilibrium experiments fitted to Freundlich isotherm model and Freundlich isotherm constants Kf and n were found 0.16 L mg-1 ve 0.87 for diclofenac and 0.56 L mg-1 ve 1.24 for paracetamol respectively. Sorption coefficient Kd, and octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow) were also calculated for each pharmaceutical and compared with similar studies. Results showed that both pharmaceuticals exhibited moderate adsorption potential by activated sludge

An examination of the adsorption characteristics of a basic dye (Maxilon Red BL-N) on to live activated sludge system

Removal of dyestuffs by adsorption on to live activated sludge was investigated. Two dyes, one acid dye (Acid Yellow 17) and one basic dye (Maxilon Red BL-N), were tested. Initial adsorption studies showed that binding of Acid Yellow 17 onto activated sludge was not promising while Maxilon Red BL-N was adsorbed well by activated sludge and the dye-sludge system conformed to the Langmuir Model, Kinetic studies were also performed for Maxilon Red and live activated sludge system. According to the results obtained, the initial part of the adsorption followed a first-order process, controlled by film diffusion. Intraparticle diffusion also played a significant role. The kinetics of sorption have been analyzed by three kinetic models, the first order Lagergren model, a pseudo second order model and the second order model. Rate constants for each of the models were derived and correlation coefficients were calculated. The overall process was best described by the pseudo second order model rather than first order model or the second order model. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved