Forecasting Private Consumption Structure in European Countries: SKIM Model Results and Comparison with other Approaches

This analysis was performed with data from 10 European Union countries in the period 1962-86 and is devoted to the changes in the structure of private consumption with respect to eight commodity groups. We began with eleven different approaches from which we chose four. In turn we then compared them with the SKIM model. A total of 880 equations have been estimated during the period 1962-84 and from that source of information we evaluated the forecasting accuracy for the period 1984-86. The main conclusion is that the Skim model, presented in this paper, generally performs better than the other models considered, (Rotterdam, loglinear, LES, Deaton and Muellbauer, and related models). The paper also analyses the evolution of Private Consumption in 15 European Union countries during the period 1960-2000, in comparison in the USA and Japan.Private Consumption; Applied Econometric Models, European Economics

Consumption expenditure on Health and Education: Econometric models and evolution of OECD countries 1970-96

We analyse the evolution of Private Consumption on two special groups of expenditure: Health, and Education and Culture, having into account that there are some substitution effects between public and private expenditure on both groups. The comparison is made with data of real private expenditure by inhabitant, at 1990 prices and exchange rates, for 13 OECD countries in the period 1970-94 and with data of real public and private expenditure by inhabitant for 24 countries in the year 1996. We estimate some econometric models for private expenditure and the results confirm the existence of the substitution effect and that this effect seems to be higher in the case of Health. From the analysis of the evolution of these variable our main conclusion is that the to increase the expenditure on both groups, with economic development, is positive for welfare and obeys to a rational behaviour of consumers. So we do not agree with the propositions and attempts to cut public expenditure on these important services, which sometimes are made in the name of a kind economic efficiency that do not have into account, in the desirable degree, the quality of services and social welfare.

Unemployment duration, unemployment benefits and recalls

We use administrative micro-data to investigate exits from unemployment of benefit recipients in Spain. Because the data allow us to distinguish between transitions to a new job and recall to the same employer, we apply a competing risks model with observed and unobserved heterogeneity. We are also able to control for the type of benefit received by the worker: insurance benefit or assistance benefit. We find significant differences between the new job hazard and the recall hazard. Both hazard rates increase around the time that insurance benefit elapses. We also find that when larger firms recall unemployed workers they tend to do so faster than smaller firms. In general, our results are consistent with predictions derived from search and implicit contract models. They highlight the importance of taking into account the possibility of recall in the analysis of unemployment duration among unemployment benefit recipients

Exits from unemployment : recall or new job

This paper studies transitions out of unemployment in Spain distinguishing between recall to the same employer and reemployment in a new job. We use a large sample of newly unemployed workers obtained from Social Security records for Spain. These data contain information about each individual's employer identy before and after the unemployment spell. A discrete-time duration model with competing risks of exits serves us to investigate the factors that influence the probabilities of leaving unemployment to return to the same employer or to find a new job with a different employer. We find that the route to exit unemployment is determinant to understand the influence of individual an job characteristics on the hazard rate, as well as the latter dependence on unemployment duration. The recall hazard rate exhibits positive duration dependence during the first months and negative duration dependence thereafter (it is larger for females), while the new-job hazard presents positive duration dependence (it is larger for males

Evolucion Del Consumo Privado en Los Paises de la OCDE en 1970-1994: Modelos econometricos de analisis de elasticidades.

Este trabajo tiene por objeto hacer un analisis de la cuantia y evolucion que el consumo privado realizado en cada uno de los ocho grupos en que las National Accounts de la OCDE clasifican el gasto total, han tenido durante el periodo 1970 a 1994. Se han considerado diez paises de la Union Europea ademas de Japon, Mexico y los Estados Unidos. Para todos ellos se elaboraron las correspondientes series de consumo real y de indices de precios, comparandolas con las de los otros paises objeto del estudio. Se estimaron tambien, las elasticidades del gasto real en los grupos de alimentos, bebidas y tabaco, y transportes y comunicaciones, respecto al gasto total y a los precios relativos.

Maximum population transfer in a periodically driven two-level system

We study the dynamics of a two-level quantum system under the influence of sinusoidal driving in the intermediate frequency regime. Analyzing the Floquet quasienergy spectrum, we find combinations of the field parameters for which population transfer is optimal and takes place through a series of well defined steps of fixed duration. We also show how the corresponding evolution operator can be approximated at all times by a very simple analytical expression. We propose this model as being specially suitable for treating periodic driving at avoided crossings found in complex multi-level systems, and thus show a relevant application of our results to designing a control protocol in a realistic molecular modelComment: 7 pages, 6 figure

4U 1626-67 as seen by Suzaku before and after the 2008 torque reversal

Aims. The accretion-powered pulsar 4U 1626-67 experienced a new torque reversal at the beginning of 2008, after about 18 years of steadily spinning down. The main goal of the present work is to study this recent torque reversal that occurred in 2008 February. Methods. We present a spectral analysis of this source using two pointed observations performed by Suzaku in 2006 March and in 2010 September. Results. We confirm with Suzaku the presence of a strong emission-line complex centered on 1 keV, with the strongest line being the hydrogen-like Ne Ly-alpha at 1.025(3) keV. We were able to resolve this complex with up to seven emission lines. A dramatic increase of the intensity of the Ne Ly-alpha line after the 2008 torque reversal occurred, with the equivalent width of this line reaching almost the same value measured by ASCA in 1993. We also report on the detection of a cyclotron line feature centered at ~37 keV. In spite of the fact that an increase of the X-ray luminosity (0.5-100 keV) of a factor of ~2.8 occurred between these two observations, no significant change in the energy of the cyclotron line feature was observed. However, the intensity of the ~1 keV line complex increased by an overall factor of ~8. Conclusions. Our results favor a scenario in which the neutron star in 4U 1626-67 accretes material from a geometrically thin disk during both the spin-up and spin-down phases.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures and 2 tables. Accepted in A&