Calculating and understanding the value of any type of match evidence when there are potential testing errors

It is well known that Bayes’ theorem (with likelihood ratios) can be used to calculate the impact of evidence, such as a ‘match’ of some feature of a person. Typically the feature of interest is the DNA profile, but the method applies in principle to any feature of a person or object, including not just DNA, fingerprints, or footprints, but also more basic features such as skin colour, height, hair colour or even name. Notwithstanding concerns about the extensiveness of databases of such features, a serious challenge to the use of Bayes in such legal contexts is that its standard formulaic representations are not readily understandable to non-statisticians. Attempts to get round this problem usually involve representations based around some variation of an event tree. While this approach works well in explaining the most trivial instance of Bayes’ theorem (involving a single hypothesis and a single piece of evidence) it does not scale up to realistic situations. In particular, even with a single piece of match evidence, if we wish to incorporate the possibility that there are potential errors (both false positives and false negatives) introduced at any stage in the investigative process, matters become very complex. As a result we have observed expert witnesses (in different areas of speciality) routinely ignore the possibility of errors when presenting their evidence. To counter this, we produce what we believe is the first full probabilistic solution of the simple case of generic match evidence incorporating both classes of testing errors. Unfortunately, the resultant event tree solution is too complex for intuitive comprehension. And, crucially, the event tree also fails to represent the causal information that underpins the argument. In contrast, we also present a simple-to-construct graphical Bayesian Network (BN) solution that automatically performs the calculations and may also be intuitively simpler to understand. Although there have been multiple previous applications of BNs for analysing forensic evidence—including very detailed models for the DNA matching problem, these models have not widely penetrated the expert witness community. Nor have they addressed the basic generic match problem incorporating the two types of testing error. Hence we believe our basic BN solution provides an important mechanism for convincing experts—and eventually the legal community—that it is possible to rigorously analyse and communicate the full impact of match evidence on a case, in the presence of possible error

Cosmic string Y-junctions: a comparison between field theoretic and Nambu-Goto dynamics

We explore the formation of cosmic string Y-junctions when strings of two different types collide, which has recently become important since string theory can yield cosmic strings of distinct types. Using a model containing two types of local U(1) string and stable composites, we simulate the collision of two straight strings and investigate whether the dynamics matches that previously obtained using the Nambu-Goto action, which is not strictly valid close to the junction. We find that the Nambu-Goto action performs only moderately well at predicting when the collision results in the formation of a pair of Y-junctions (with a composite string connecting them). However, we find that when they do form, the late time dynamics matches those of the Nambu-Goto approximation very closely. We also see little radiative emission from the Y-junction system, which suggests that radiative decay due to bridge formation does not appear to be a means via which a cosmological network of such string would rapidly lose energy.Comment: 17 pages, 17 figures; typo correctio

The evolution of conifolds

We simulate the gravitational dynamics of the conifold geometries (resolved and deformed) involved in the description of certain compact spacetimes. As the cycles of the conifold collapse towards a singular geometry we find that a horizon develops, shielding the external spacetime from the curvature singularity of the newly formed black hole. The structure of the black hole is examined for a range of initial conditions, and we find a candidate black-hole solution for the final state of the collapse.Comment: 22 pages, 6 figure

Dates of birth and seasonal changes in well-being among 4904 subjects completing the seasonal pattern assessment questionnaire

Background: Abnormal distributions of birthdates, suggesting intrauterine aetiological factors, have been found in several psychiatric disorders, including one study of out-patients with Seasonal Affective Disorder (S.A.D.). We investigated birthdate distribution in relation to seasonal changes in well-being among a cohort who had completed the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ). Method: A sample of 4904 subjects, aged 16 to 64, completed the SPAQ. 476 were cases of S.A.D. on the SPAQ and 580 were cases of sub-syndromal S.A.D. (S-S.A.D.). 92 were interview confirmed cases of S.A.D. Months and dates of birth were compared between S.A.D. cases and all others, between S.A.D. and S-S.A.D. cases combined and all others, and between interview confirmed cases and all others. Seasonality, as measured through seasonal fluctuations in well-being on the Global Seasonality Scores (GSS) of the SPAQ, was compared for all subjects by month and season of birth. Results: There was no evidence of an atypical pattern of birthdates for subjects fulfilling criteria for S.A.D., for the combined S.A.D. / S-S.A.D. group or for interview confirmed cases. There was also no relationship between seasonality on the GSS and month or season of birth. Limitations: Diagnoses of S.A.D. made by SPAQ criteria are likely to be overinclusive. Conclusion: Our findings differ from studies of patients with more severe mood disorders, including psychiatric out-patients with S.A.D. The lack of association between seasonality and birthdates in our study adds credence to the view that the aetiology of S.A.D. relates to separable factors predisposing to affective disorders and to seasonality

Establishing the boundaries: the hippocampal contribution to imagining scenes

When we visualize scenes, either from our own past or invented, we impose a viewpoint for our “mind's eye” and we experience the resulting image as spatially coherent from that viewpoint. The hippocampus has been implicated in this process, but its precise contribution is unknown. We tested a specific hypothesis based on the spatial firing properties of neurons in the hippocampal formation of rats, that this region supports the construction of spatially coherent mental images by representing the locations of the environmental boundaries surrounding our viewpoint. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we show that hippocampal activation increases parametrically with the number of enclosing boundaries in the imagined scene. In contrast, hippocampal activity is not modulated by a nonspatial manipulation of scene complexity nor to increasing difficulty of imagining the scenes in general. Our findings identify a specific computational role for the hippocampus in mental imagery and episodic recollection

Macrophage Migration Is Impaired within Candida albicans Biofilms

Acknowledgments: We thank the Microscopy and Histology Core Facility at the University of Aberdeen. This work was funded by NHS Grampian Endowments (grant RG10191); the Wellcome Trust Strategic Award in Medical Mycology and Fungal Immunology (grant 097377); the Wellcome Trust Investigator award (grants 101873, 086827, 075470, & 200208) and the Medical Research Council Centre for Medical Mycology (grant MR/N006364/1).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

National Foreclosure Mitigation Counseling Program Evaluation: Final Report, Rounds 3 Through 5

The Urban Institute completed a four-year evaluation of Rounds 3 through 5 of the National Foreclosure Mitigation Counseling (NFMC) program. Using a representative NFMC sample of 137,000 loans and a comparison non-NFMC sample of 103,000 loans, the Urban Institute was able to employ robust statistical techniques to isolate the impact of NFMC counseling on loan performance through June 2013.The final evaluation of Rounds 3 through 5 conducted by Urban Institute indicates that the NFMC program continues to have positive effects for homeowners participating in the program Counseled homeowners were more likely to cure a serious delinquency or foreclosure with a modification or other type cure, stay current after obtaining a cure, and for NFMC clients who cured a serious delinquency, avoid foreclosure altogether

Optical dispersion relations for diamondlike carbon films

Ellipsometric measurements on plasma deposited diamondlike amorphous carbon (a-C:H) films were taken in the visible, (E = 1.75 to 3.5 eV). The films were deposited on Si and their properties were varied using high temperature (up to 750 C) anneals. The real (n) and imaginary (k) parts of the complex index of refraction, N, were obtained simultaneously. Following the theory of Forouhi and Bloomer, a least squares fit was used to find the dispersion relations n(E) and k(E). Reasonably good fits were obtained, showing that the theory can be used for a-C:H films. Moreover, the value of the energy gap, Eg, obtained in this way was compared the the Eg value using conventional Tauc plots and reasonably good agreement was obtained

Rab14 regulates the maturation of macrophage phagosomes containing the fungal pathogen Candida albicans and the outcome of the host-pathogen interaction

Date of Acceptance: 02/02/2015 Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.Peer reviewedPublisher PD