Forecast Errors in Undisclosed Management Sales Forecasts: The Disappearance of the Overoptimism Bias

Previous empirical evidence which evaluated the accuracy of management earnings or sales forecasts consistently revealed these forecasts to be on average signi cantly overoptimistic. However, all studies analyzed forecasts from public disclosures, which are an important signal to investors and analysts and thus possibly biased by strategic considerations. To disentagle whether and to which extent strategic deception or cognitive biases are resposible for this overoptimism, the present study analyzes the accuracy of 6,234 undisclosed, company-internal sales forecasts, which German firms provided anonymously to the IAB Establishment Panel. Quite surprisingly, the study reveals the average forecast to be signi cantly overpessimistic. I propose that the non-existence of a general bias towards overoptimism is due to the lack of incentives to consciously overgloss future prospects in undisclosed forecasts and that overpessimism may be a consequence of loss aversion. --Management forecasts,Overoptimism,Overpessimism,Germany

The Periodic System of Metal Clusters - a Tool for Deriving Various Forms of »Cluster-Matter«

A simple modified jellium model permits calculation of all the magic numbers of large metal clusters MN up to N = 1432 in excellent agreement with experimental data. This success justifies further conclusions to be drawn from this model; (1) the calculated aufbau principle enables construction of a Periodic System of (alkali metal) Clusters (PSC); (II) this PSC, strictly speaking a Periodic System of »giant atoms«, is a powerful tool for predicting the reactivity of free electron-like metal clusters; (III) the formation of cluster dimers is discussed exemplarily in detail in excellent agreement with experimental and theoretical experience; (IV) various forms of cluster-matter are outlined in relation to new materials; (V) a great deal of work has to be done to confirm a number of unconventional predictions: new experiments and new calculations are highly desirable

Mutationssuche in den Exons 2 und 3 des Galanin-Rezeptor-1-Gens bei extremadipösen Kindern und Jugendlichen, normalgewichtigen Kontrollen und Patientinnenmit Anorexia nervosa oder Bulimia nervosa und die Durchführung von Assoziationsuntersuchungen

Galanin ist ein zentral und peripher exprimiertes Peptid, welches dafür bekannt ist, an verschiedenen Prozessen wie Nahrungsaufnahme, Gewichtskontrolle, Sexualverhalten, Lernen und Gedächtnis, Emotion, Epilepsie, Schmerz, Alkoholabhängigkeit, Motilität des Gastrointestinaltrakts, Herzfrequenz und Blutdruck beteiligt zu sein. Bislang konnten drei G-Protein gekoppelte Galaninrezeptoren (GALR1, GALR2 und GALR3) bei Ratte und Mensch identifiziert werden. Zahlreiche Tierstudien belegen eine positive Korrelation des Galanins mit der Höhe der nahrungsbedingten Fettaufnahme, welche über den GALR1 vermittelt wird und damit das GALR1-Gen zu einem plausiblen Kandidatengen für Untersuchungen zur Gewichtsregulation beim Menschen machen [Übersicht in Crawley, 1999; Leibowitz et al., 1998a; Leibowitz et al., 1998b]. Es gibt bislang keine Studien am humanen GALR1, die einen Einfluss auf die Nahrungsaufnahme und die Gewichtsregulation untersuchten (s. Kap. 1.6). Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit war die Suche nach Mutationen im GALR1-Gen und die Aufdeckung einer möglichen Assoziation zu den Phänotypen Adipositas, Anorexia nervosa und Bulimia nervosa. Mittels Einzelstrang-Konformationsanalyse (SSCP) wurden die Exons 2 und 3 [Exon 1 in Schäuble et al., 2005] des Galaninrezeptor1 (GALR1)-Gens auf Allel-Varianten untersucht und Assoziationsuntersuchungen bei 187 extrem adipösen Kindern und Jugendlichen (BMI 35.1  6.2 kg/m², Alter 14.4  3.3 Jahre, 50.8 % weiblich), 99 PatientInnen mit Anorexia nervosa (BMI 15.7  3.3, Alter 18.9  5.2 Jahre, 92.1 % weiblich), 27 PatientInnen mit Bulimia nervosa (BMI 21.7  5.8, Alter 23.8  4.9, 100 % weiblich) sowie einer Kontrollgruppe aus 106 gesunden untergewichtigen Studenten (BMI 18.4  1.2 kg/m², Alter 25.5  3.8 Jahre, 37.7 % weiblich) durchgeführt. In der Einzelstrang-Konformations (SSCP)-Analyse des Exon 2 des GALR1-Gens konnten keine von der Wildtyp-Variante abweichenden Bandenmuster in den untersuchten Gruppen gefunden werden. Im Exon 3 des GALR1-Gens wurde mittels SSCP-Analyse und Sequenzierung ein bisher unbekannter Polymorphismus an Position 793AT identifiziert. Dieser führt zu einer Veränderung der Aminosäurensequenz (Missense-Mutation) von Isoleucin zu Phenylalanin Ile265Phe. In der abschließenden allelspezifischen amplification-refractory mutation system (ARMS)-PCR wurde ein homozygoter Träger in der untergewichtigen Kontrollgruppe detektiert. Der Anteil der heterozygoten Träger für den Polymorphismus betrug in der Gruppe mit extremer Adipositas 10,70 %, in den Gruppen mit Anorexia nervosa und Bulimia nervosa 7,07 % bzw. 7,41 % und in der untergewichtigen Kontrollgruppe 7,55 %. Die durchgeführten Assoziationstests ergaben keinen signifikanten Werte (p > 0.05) für die Genotyp- und Allelhäufigkeiten in den untersuchten Gruppen. Durch die Ergebnisse der vorliegenden Arbeit erscheint ein Zusammenhang des identifizierten Polymorphismus 793AT im Exon 3 des GALR1-Gens an der Gewichtsregulation, besonders bei der Adipositas im Kindes- und Jugendalter unwahrscheinlich. Um eine umfassendere Aussage zur Rolle des GALR1 bei der Gewichtsregulation treffen zu können, müssten weitere Studiengruppen, wie adipöse Erwachsene, Zugehörige anderer ethnischer Gruppen usw. untersucht werden. Durch die fast ubiquitäre Lokalisation von Galanin und den Galaninrezeptoren ist deren Mitwirkung an zahlreichen physiologischen Prozessen wie Lernen, Emotion, Epilepsie oder Nozizeption vorstellbar (s. Kap. 1.5 - 1.6). Die genaue Kenntnis der Wirkungsmechanismen des Galanins und der drei Galaninrezeptoren könnte ein Ansatz für die Entwicklung neuer diagnostischer Möglichkeiten oder neuen Therapieformen bei zahlreichen Krankheiten, wie z. B. metabolischen Störungen, M. Alzheimer, affektiven Störungen, Angst, Alkoholkonsum, Schmerz oder Tumoren darstellen. Aus diesem Grund sollten Polymorphismen im GALR1-Gen, wie der von uns identifizierte 793AT, im Fokus der zukünftigen Forschungsarbeiten bleiben

Alternative strategies to reduce liver abscess incidence and severity in feedlot cattle.

Master of ScienceDepartment of Animal Sciences and IndustryJames S. DrouillardSince the 1960’s liver abscess incidence and severity have been identified as a problem associated with feeding high concentrate finishing rations to feedlot cattle. Liver abscesses lead to decreased feedlot performance and decreased carcass value. Tylosin phosphate is a macrolide antibiotic commonly used by feedlots throughout the United States and has been shown to successfully control liver abscesses. In 2013, the FDA issued Guidance for Industry #213, which encourages reduced usage of medically important classes of antibiotics, such as macrolides, in animal feed. This will be achieved by implementing veterinary oversight of these drugs via Veterinary Feed Directives (VFD). Thus, it is of importance to find alternative strategies to reduce usage of tylosin in finishing rations to control liver abscesses. One strategy that has been suggested is increasing dietary roughage concentration. However, this isn’t a viable option as increasing dietary roughage concentration not only leads to a decline in feedlot performance, hot carcass weight, and dressing percentage, but also has an environmental impact. Available research has also indicated that increasing dietary roughage has no impact on liver abscess incidence or severity. Our research objective was therefore to identify alternative strategies to reduce liver abscess incidence. Our first trial evaluated the impact of antioxidants on liver abscess incidence and severity. Treatments consisted of a control treatment (basal diet containing 200 IU/d α-tocopherol acetate), and an antioxidant treatment (basal diet containing 2000 IU/d α-tocopherol acetate and 500 mg/d crystalline ascorbate). Treatments were randomly assigned to 390 crossbred heifers. No differences in feedlot performance were detected; however, there was a tendency for improved feed intake (P = 0.075) and feed efficiency (P = 0.066) for heifers that received the antioxidant treatment. An increased number of yield grade 3 carcasses (P = 0.03) and fewer yield grade 1 carcasses (P < 0.01) was observed in the antioxidant treatment group. No differences were detected between treatments for other carcass characteristics or liver abscess incidence and severity. Another trial evaluated intermittent tylosin feeding and its impact on liver abscess incidence and antimicrobial resistant Enterococcus spp. when compared to continuous tylosin feeding. One of 3 treatments were randomly assigned to 312 crossbred steers: negative control (no tylosin fed throughout the feeding period); positive control (tylosin fed throughout the feeding period); or intermittent treatment (tylosin fed intermittently throughout the feeding period: 1week on, 2 weeks off). Fecal samples were collected on day 0, 20, and 118 to characterize antimicrobial resistant Enterococcus spp. By design, the intermittent treatment consumed 60% less tylosin than the positive control group. No differences were detected between treatments for feedlot performance. Liver abscess incidence was greatest for the negative control, and least for the positive control and intermittent treatments, with no difference being detected between the latter two treatments (P = 0.716). Antimicrobial resistance was unaffected by treatment, but was affected by sampling time. We concluded that supplementing antioxidants is not a viable option to reduce liver abscess incidence and severity, and that tylosin usage can be decreased without adversely affecting performance or liver abscess incidence

Vom Molekül zum Polymer: Eine quantenmechanische Studie an anorganischen Metall- und Nichtmetallverbindungen

The molecular structures of all silver halide monomers, Ag2X, AgX, AgX2 and AgX3, (X = F, Cl, Br, I), have been calculated at the B3LYP, MP2 and CCSD(T) levels of theory by using quasirelativistic pseudopotentials for all atoms except fluorine and chlorine. All silver monohalides are stable molecules, while the relative stabilities of the subhalides, dihalides and trihalides considerably decrease toward the larger halogens. The ground-state structure of all Ag2X silver subhalides has C2v symmetry, and the molecules can be best described as [Ag2]+X-. Silver dihalides are linear molecules; AgF2 has a 2Sg ground state, while all of the other silver dihalides have a ground state of 2Pg symmetry. The potential energy surface (PES) of all silver trihalides has been investigated. Neither of these molecules has a D3h symmetric trigonal planar geometry, due to their Jahn-Teller distortion. The minimum energy structure of AgF3 is a T-shaped structure with C2v symmetry. For AgCl3, AgBr3 and AgI3, the global minimum is an L-shaped structure, which lies outside the Jahn-Teller PES. This structure can be considered as a donor-acceptor system, with X2 acting as donor and AgX as acceptor. Thus, except for AgF3, in the other three silver trihalides, silver is not present in the formal oxidation state 3. Hybrid density functional theory methods have been used to examine the reactivity of hexafluoro- and hexachlorocyclotriphosphazene with respect to single, multiple and complete substitution with water, ammonia, phosphoric and sulfuric acid. Geometries of both educts and all substitution products habe been optimized and their thermodynamic properties are discussed. Based on these results the thermodynamically most favorable reaction pathways have been determined. Starting from a basic unit, which consists of two phosphazene rings that are geminally linked by two hydrazine bridges, several possibilities to form double-stranded chains or helices containing cyclotriphosphazenes were examined by PM3 calculations

Ribonucleoparticle-independent transport of proteins into mammalian microsomes

There are at least two different mechanisms for the transport of secretory proteins into the mammalian endoplasmic reticulum. Both mechanisms depend on the presence of a signal peptide on the respective precursor protein and involve a signal peptide receptor on the cis-side and signal peptidase on the trans-side of the membrane. Furthermore, both mechanisms involve a membrane component with a cytoplasmically exposed sulfhydryl. The decisive feature of the precursor protein with respect to which of the two mechanisms is used is the chain length of the polypeptide. The critical size seems to be around 70 amino acid residues (including the signal peptide). The one mechanism is used by precursor proteins larger than about 70 amino acid residues and involves two cytosolic ribonucleoparticles and their receptors on the microsomal surface. The other one is used by small precursor proteins and relies on the mature part within the precursor molecule and a cytosolic ATPase

Metadata: how we relate to images

METADATA. HOW WE RELATE TO IMAGES Lethaby Gallery 10 Jan—3 Feb 2018 An exhibition organised by the International Research Group “Bilderfahrzeuge. Aby Warburg’s Legacy and the Future of Iconology” in collaboration with Central Saint Martins, University of the Arts London

Cortisol and 17-hydroxyprogesterone levels in saliva of healthy neonates - Normative data and relation to body mass index, arterial cord blood pH and time of sampling after birth

The measurement of cortisol and 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17-OHP) in saliva has become a reliable tool for both the scientist and the clinician for studying adrenal cortical function in the adult and the older child. We have now established in parallel normative data for salivary cortisol and 17-OHP levels in healthy neonates. We have asked whether or not there is a circadian rhythm of cortisol and 17-OHP saliva levels in neonates. Furthermore, we have asked whether salivary hormone levels correlated with auxologic and clinical data and time of sampling. Cortisol and 17-OHP levels in saliva samples from 119 healthy neonates (55 girls, 64 boys) were measured using in-house time-resolved fluorescent immunoassays. Saliva samples were obtained using a saliva collecting tube three times a day on the first or second day of life. Gender and gestational age did not influence salivary cortisol and 17-OHP levels. No significant circadian rhythm of salivary hormone levels was detected in this group of newborns. However, body mass index, arterial cord blood pH and time of saliva sampling significantly influenced salivary hormone levels. In conclusion, measurement of cortisol and 17-OHP in saliva is feasible in healthy neonates. The existence of normative data forms the basis for future studies on pathophysiologic states in the newborn period. Copyright (C) 2000 S. Karger AG, Basel

High-sensitivity troponin assays in the evaluation of patients with acute chest pain in the emergency department

Evaluating patients with acute chest pain presenting to the emergency department remains an ongoing challenge. The spectrum of etiologies in acute chest pain ranges from minor disease entities to life-threatening diseases, such as pulmonary embolism, acute aortic dissection or acute myocardial infarction (MI). The diagnosis of acute MI is usually made integrating the triad of patient history and clinical presentation, readings of 12-lead ECG and measurement of cardiac troponins (cTn). Introduction of high-sensitivity cTn assays substantially increases sensitivity to identify patients with acute MI even at the time of presentation to the emergency department at the cost of specificity. However, the proportion of patients presenting with cTn positive, non-vascular cardiac chest pain triples with the implementation of new sensitive cTn assays increasing the difficulty for the emergency physician to identify those patients who are at need for invasive diagnostics. The main objectives of this mini-review are 1) to discuss elements of disposition decision made by the emergency physician for the evaluation of chest pain patients, 2) to summarize recent advances in assay technology and relate these findings into the clinical context, and 3) to discuss possible consequences for the clinical work and suggest an algorithm for the clinical evaluation of chest pain patients in the emergency departmen