Towards improved understanding of the applicability of uncertainty forecasts in the electric power industry

Around the world wind energy is starting to become a major energy provider in electricity markets, as well as participating in ancillary services markets to help maintain grid stability. The reliability of system operations and smooth integration of wind energy into electricity markets has been strongly supported by years of improvement in weather and wind power forecasting systems. Deterministic forecasts are still predominant in utility practice although truly optimal decisions and risk hedging are only possible with the adoption of uncertainty forecasts. One of the main barriers for the industrial adoption of uncertainty forecasts is the lack of understanding of its information content (e.g., its physical and statistical modeling) and standardization of uncertainty forecast products, which frequently leads to mistrust towards uncertainty forecasts and their applicability in practice. This paper aims at improving this understanding by establishing a common terminology and reviewing the methods to determine, estimate, and communicate the uncertainty in weather and wind power forecasts. This conceptual analysis of the state of the art highlights that: (i) end-users should start to look at the forecast's properties in order to map different uncertainty representations to specific wind energy-related user requirements; (ii) a multidisciplinary team is required to foster the integration of stochastic methods in the industry sector. A set of recommendations for standardization and improved training of operators are provided along with examples of best practices

Uncertainty Forecasting in a Nutshell

It is in the nature of chaotic atmospheric processes that weather forecasts will never be perfectly accurate. This natural fact poses challenges not only for private life, public safety, and traffic but also for electrical power systems with high shares of weather-dependent wind and solar power production. To facilitate a secure and economic grid and market integration of renewable energy sources (RES), grid operators and electricity traders must know how much power RES within their systems will produce over the next hours and days. This is why RES forecast models have grown over the past decade to become indispensable tools for many stakeholders in the energy economy. Driven by increased grid stability requirements and market forces, forecast systems have become tailored to the end user's application and already perform reliably over long periods. Apart from a residually moderate forecast error, there are single extreme-error events that greatly affect grid operators

IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting –Phase II

This article presents the edition and historical context of an unpublished manuscript from 1800, belonging to the Real Seminario de Nobles de Madrid, which establishes the principles that had to be observed by the dancing masters of this institution. The instructions contained in the document show the adoption of the French dancing style introduced in Spain with the arrival of Philip V. The dancing masters had to teach the principles of this art in the wider context of the education of manners to those who had to distinguish themselves because of their noble origin and who were destined to occupy the higher political offices in the monarchy.El artículo presenta la edición y contextualización histórica de un manuscrito inédito, datado en septiembre de 1800, en el que se establecen los principios para la enseñanza de la danza en el Real Seminario de Nobles de Madrid. Las instrucciones que contiene evidencian la práctica de la danza cortesana francesa, introducida en España con la llegada de Felipe V. El texto pone de manifiesto la función que en la época se atribuía al aprendizaje de la danza dentro del contexto más amplio de la educación aristocrática, como expresión del decoro nobiliario de quienes debían distinguirse por su nacimiento y estaban destinadas a ocupar los más altos cargos políticos de la monarquía