Futures prices, trade and domestic supply of agricultural commodities

Commodity markets display substantial volatility both in prices and in the quantities traded. This has led to the development of different instruments designed to address this volatility. Processors and traders, who are actively involved in the international market, participate in these commodity markets using cross-hedging strategies by their export and domestic supply decisions. Spot and future prices, as well as the cross-hedging strategies, affect export and the domestic supply decisions. Understanding this complex interaction calls for further and newer insights and this research contributes to this. The primary objective of Chapter 1 of this thesis is to develop a model which explains the export and domestic supply decisions when traders, producers and speculators participate in a futures market for a primary commodity, which can be stored and for which future markets operate. As a result, exports and domestic supply are affected by the prices of the primary product, and jointly by the prices in the external and domestic market. Chapter 2 provides the historical, political and economic context of the Argentine economy and the agricultural sector, specifically on the three agricultural commodities used in the empirical part of this research. In Chapter 3, we perform a comprehensive analysis of the seasonal unit roots of monthly series of exports and domestic supply, using time series that include zero values. In the past, this technique has mostly been applied to quarterly data but never to monthly series that display periods of inactivity. The results indicate that, in general, the seasonality observed in the series analysed can be sufficiently explained by a deterministic approach. The estimation and further analysis of the supply equations derived in Chapter 1 are undertaken in Chapter 4. A comprehensive analysis of seasonal cointegration using monthly data was conducted but, in light of the results obtained in Chapter 3, only the Engle-Granger cointegration is applied. The results indicate weak cointegration relationships. This may indicate the need for improved data and/or alternative econometric techniques

Cuentos del Olivar

En este apasionante viaje tenemos las puertas abiertas para todo aquel que se quiera sumar, ya sea trabajando en pos de la difusión de la cultura ligada al olivo o disfrutando de lecturas como las que se recogen en este libro, que seguro les depara un sabroso disfrute y les descubre una cultura del olivar que tiene a sus espaldas varios milenios de historia. Les deseo que paladeen cada uno de estos relatos, que conforman un excelente aperitivo literario.Área de Historia del Art

Andean Countries at a Crossroads: Evaluating Pro-Poor Trade Integration Options

Andean countries are at a crossroads in external strategies and in a critical moment to re­evaluate trade and integration agendas as well as their impact on poverty. These twin ingredients are the centerpieces of development agendas today. Trade and integration continue to be an engine for growth and global competitiveness. Meanwhile, despite visible economic growth over decades, the bloc continues to face high and persistent poverty, and lags behind in Latin America in efforts to reduce poverty. In this paper, we evaluate a wide set of Andean trade and integration options and the impact of the Andean­US bilateral agreements on poverty and inequality. To this end, we apply a two­step, top­down approach in sequence. The first step is undertaken with a newly developed global, multi­region CGE model incorporating several innovations in database and modeling. The second stage is carried out with the microsimulation analysis, applying outputs simulated by the CGE model to individual households for three countries (Bolivia, Colombia and Peru). Simulation results indicate that the impact of trade agreements is unambiguously expansionary, although the gains are modest. While market opening will improve welfare, this policy instrument alone does not automatically guarantee export diversification, nor change the economic structure and reinforce technology­intensive industries. The impact of bilateral agreements is pro­poor, reducing poverty and narrowing inequality for signing countries. But the opposite is the case of non­signing country. The study shows that labor income gains via job creation particularly in rural areas are the primary sources of poverty reduction and inequality improvement. Trade and integration strategies are, however, not necessarily the panaceas to combat chronic poverty and reduce prevalent inequality. To tackle these issues, it is crucial to devise policy measures directly targeting the poor, in the combination with trade and integration approaches

Innocent bystanders: implications of an EU-India free trade agreement for excluded countries

The European Union, under its Global Europe initiative, has since 2006 been pursuing trade agreements with its major global trading partners. An EU-India Free Trade Agreement is currently under negotiation; if successfully concluded it is likely to have knock-on effects on other countries trade with both India and the EU, the trade of the innocent bystanders excluded from the agreement. The authors consider the implications of the EU-India Free Trade Agreement for various groups of other countries, including the ACP countries and those in South Asia, the latter group being most strongly impacted. The analysis considers not only trade in goods but also trade in services, and focuses not only on quantities but also on the prices at which trade is conducted. The authors then consider how excluded countries might respond to the Free Trade Agreement, both at an individual level and at a systemic level