Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: A case study of Canadian bitumen

Keywords JEL Classification High crude oil prices, uncertainties about the consequences of climate change and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels, such as non-conventional oil and biofuels. This paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of nonconventional oil, including the role of learning-by-doing in driving down costs. This forward-looking analysis quantifies the effects of both learning and production constraints on the costs of supplying bitumen which can then be upgraded into synthetic crude oil, a substitute to conventional oil. The results show large uncertainties in the future costs of supplying bitumen from Canadian oil sands deposits, with a 90% confidence interval of $8 to$12 in 2025, and $7 to$15 in 2050 (2005 US$). The influence of each parameter on the supply costs is examined, with the minimum supply cost, the learning rate, and the depletion curve exponent having the largest influence. Over time, the influence of the learning rate on the supply costs decreases, while the influence of the depletion curve exponent increases. Climate change; Non-conventional oil; Exhaustible resources; Technological change; Uncertainty

Elasticity optimism

Estimates of the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign varieties are small in macroeconomic data, and substantially larger in disaggregated studies. This may be an artifact of heterogeneity. We use disaggregated multilateral trade data to structurally identify elasticities of substitution in US goods. We spell out a partial equilibrium model to aggregate them adequately at the country level. We compare aggregate elasticities that impose equality across sectors, to estimates allowing for heterogeneity. The former are similar in value to conventional macroeconomic estimates; but they are more than twice larger -up to 7- with heterogeneity. The parameter is central to calibrated models in most of international economics. We discuss the difference our corrected estimate makes in various areas of international economics, including the dynamics of external balances, the international transmission of shocks, international portfolio choice and optimal monetary policy.Trade Elasticities, Aggregation, Calibration, Global Imbalances, International Transmission, International Portfolio, Monetary Policy.

Location decisions and Minimum Wages

The paper contributes to the living debate on the controversial effects of minimum wage policy on economic performances, focusing on its impact on firms’ location choice. The question is investigated through a theoretical model, that incorporates features from the new trade literature (Krugman (1991)) and the labor-market literature. In a two-country framework, we model endogenous entry of firms under wage rigidity. In this setting, the impact of an unilateral increase in the home country’s minimum wage is analyzed. The policy shock is shown to have a twofold influence on the relative attractiveness of the home country, simultaneously affecting its relative cost competitiveness and the aggregate demand addressed to firms. Both effects do not necessarily go in the same direction, hence the final effect on firms’ location decisions is ambiguous. We show that it notably depends on the adjustments that occur on the skilled and unskilled labor markets. Our overall results suggest that the design of labor-market policies should take into account their impact on firms’ location decisions, if willing to evaluate their whole consequences in the national economy.Minimum wage, Home Market Effect, Firms location decisions

Potential and limitations of bioenergy options for low carbon transitions

Sustaining low CO2 emission pathways to 2100 may rely on electricity production from biomass. We analyze the effect of the availability of biomass resources and technologies with and without carbon capture and storage within a general equilibrium framework. Biomass technologies are introduced into the electricity module of the hybrid general equilibrium model Imaclim-R. We assess the robustness of this technology, with and without carbon capture and storage, as a way of reaching the RCP 3.7 stabilization target. The impact of a uniform CO2 tax on energy prices, investments and the structure of the electricity mix is examined. World GDP growth is affected by the absence of the CCS or biomass options, and biomass is shown to be a possible technological answer to the absence of CCS. As the use of biomass on a large scale might prove unsustainable, we illustrate early action as a strategy to reduce the need for biomass and enhance economic growth in the long term.La poursuite des trajectoires de faible émission de CO2 à l'horizon 2100 peut dépendre de la production d'électricité à partir de la biomasse. Nous analysons l'effet de la disponibilité des ressources et des technologies de la biomasse avec et sans capture et stockage de carbone dans un cadre d'équilibre général. Les technologies de la biomasse sont introduites dans le module électricité du modèle d'équilibre général Imaclim-R. Nous évaluons la robustesse de cette technologie avec et sans capture et stockage de carbone, comme moyen d'atteindre l'objectif de stabilisation RCP 3.7. L'impact d'une taxe carbone uniforme sur les prix de l'énergie, les investissements et la structure du mix électricité est examiné. La croissance du PIB mondial est affectée par l'absence des options du CSC ou de la biomasse, et la biomasse apparait comme une réponse technologique à l'absence du CSC. Dans la mesure où l'utilisation de la biomasse à grande échelle peut s'avérer comme non soutenable, nous illustrons l'action précoce comme une stratégie de réduction des besoins de biomasse et d'amélioration de la croissance économique à long terme

Price Convergence in the European Union: Within Firms or Composition of Firms?

In this paper we use data on French export prices at the disaggregated firm and product level to evaluate the effect of economic integration on price convergence. We use the European integration ‘experiment' and firm-level data on export prices to distinguish between two possible margins of adjustment: At the intensive margin economic integration induces different pricing strategies within the firm, whereas at the extensive margin it affects the composition of firms with different pricing strategies. In our sample price convergence is 40 percent faster in the European Union than in an appropriately defined control group. 30 percent of this effect can be attributed to the fact that a higher share of firms with a low propensity to price discriminate serve European markets

The Effect of CO2 Pricing on Conventional and Non-Conventional Oil Supply and Demand

What would be the effect of CO2 pricing on global oil supply and demand? This paper introduces a model describing the interaction between conventional and non-conventional oil supply in a Hotelling framework and under CO2 constraints. The model assumes that nonconventional crude oil enters the market when conventional oil supply alone is unable to meet demand, and the social cost of CO2 is included in the calculation of the oil rent at that time. The results reveal the effect of a CO2 tax set at the social cost of CO2 on oil price and demand and the uncertainty associated with the time when conventional oil production might become unable to meet demand. The results show that a tax on CO2 emissions associated with fuel use would reduce oil demand despite the effect of lower future rents, and would delay the time when conventional oil supply is unable to satisfy demand. More precisely, between 81 and 99% of the CO2 tax is carried into the oil price despite the counter-balancing effect of the reduced rent. A CO2 tax on fuel use set at the social cost of CO2 would delay by 25 years the time when conventional oil production is unable to meet oil demand, from 2019 to 2044 (mean value). The results show that this date is very sensitive to the price elasticity of demand and the demand growth rate, which shows the great potential of demand-side measures to smooth the transition towards low-carbon liquid fuel alternatives

Supplying Synthetic Crude Oil from Canadian Oil Sands: A Comparative Study of the Costs and CO2 Emissions of Mining and In-Situ Recovery

High crude oil prices and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels such as non-conventional oil. The paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of synthetic crude oil (SCO) produced from Canadian oil sands. Synthetic crude oil is obtained by upgrading bitumen that is first produced through mining or in-situ recovery techniques. This forward-looking analysis quantifies the effects of learning and production constraints on the costs of supplying synthetic crude oil from Canadian bitumen deposits. The results show the uncertainties associated with the future costs of synthetic crude oil. Carbon costs have a large impact of the total costs of synthetic crude oil, in particular in the case of synthetic crude oil from in-situ bitumen, due to the carbon-intensity of the recovery techniques. The influence of each parameter on the supply costs is examined. In the case of mined SCO, the maximum production rate, the ultimate recovery rate and the depletion parameters show the largest influence on the results, while learning parameters dominate in the case of in-situ SCO

L'Esprit trinitaire dans la poesie des troubadours

Afirmar la fe és un tret bastant comú entre els trobadors occitans medievals. A més, com que va créixer la pietat envers l’Esperit Sant per part dels laics, l’espiritualitat trinitària va trobar gradualment un rotund ressò en la poesia trobadoresca. Des de l’estudi de Diego Zorzi sobre els trobadors, que ja es remunta a uns pocs anys enrere, aquest aspecte de la seva poesia amb prou feines sembla haver estat estudiat i molt menys, en qualsevol cas, la seva suposada vinculació amb el catarisme. El present article pretén mostrar la forta influència de la litúrgia de la Pentecosta en la poesia medieval occitana

Influence of socio-economic and lifestyle factors on overweight and nutrition-related diseases among Tunisian migrants versus non-migrant Tunisians and French

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Migrant studies in France revealed that Mediterranean migrant men have lower mortality and morbidity than local-born populations for non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We studied overweight and NCDs among Tunisian migrants compared to the population of the host country and to the population of their country of origin. We also studied the potential influence of socio-economic and lifestyle factors on differential health status.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A retrospective cohort study was conducted to compare Tunisian migrant men with two non-migrant male groups: local-born French and Tunisians living in Tunisia, using frequency matching. We performed quota sampling (n = 147) based on age and place of residence. We used embedded logistic regression models to test socio-economic and lifestyle factors as potential mediators for the effect of migration on overweight, hypertension and reported morbidity (hypercholesterolemia, type-2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases (CVD)).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Migrants were less overweight than French (OR = 0.53 [0.33–0.84]) and had less diabetes and CVD than Tunisians (0.18 [0.06–0.54] and 0.25 [0.07–0.88]). Prevalence of hypertension (grade-1 and -2) and prevalence of hypercholesterolemia were significantly lower among migrants than among French (respectively 0.06 [0.03–0.14]; 0.04 [0.01–0.15]; 0.11 [0.04–0.34]) and Tunisians (respectively OR = 0.07 [0.03–0.18]; OR = 0.06 [0.02–0.20]; OR = 0.23 [0.08–0.63]).</p> <p>The effect of migration on overweight was mediated by alcohol consumption. Healthcare utilisation, smoking and physical activity were mediators for the effect of migration on diabetes. The effect of migration on CVD was mediated by healthcare utilisation and energy intake. No obvious mediating effect was found for hypertension and hypercholesterolemia.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our study clearly shows that lifestyle (smoking) and cultural background (alcohol) are involved in the observed protective effect of migration.</p