The effect of climate change on the population of sycamore lace bug (Corythuca ciliata, Say) based on a simulation model with phenological response

Climate change affects on insect populations in many ways: it can cause a shift in geographical spread, abundance, or diversity, it can change the location, the timing and the magnitude of outbreaks of pests and it can define the phenological or even the genetic properties of the species. Long-time investigations of special insect populations, simulation models and scenario studies give us very important information about the response of the insects far away and near to our century. Getting to know the potential responses of insect populations to climate change makes us possible to evaluate the adaptation of pest management alternatives as well as to formulate our future management policy. In this paper we apply two simple models, in order to introduce a complex case study for a Sycamore lace bug population. We test how the model works in case the whether conditions are very different from those in our days. Thus, besides we can understand the processes that happen in present, we can analyze the effects of a possible climate change, as well

Population dynamics of the Sycamore Lace Bug (Corythucha Ciliata, Say, Heteroptera: Tingidae) in Hungary

Based on the observation of more than 10 000 leaves of plane trees, four populations of Corythucha ciliata (Say, 1832) (Heteroptera: Tingidae) are investigated. After having introduced some parameters derived from the data, we draw spatial-temporal patterns and describe the seasonal population dynamics of Corythucha ciliata. Amongst others, the temporal change of the density of population, the state plane of larvae–adults, the inclination to accumulate, and the intraspecific competition are examined. Population and biomass dynamics is characterized for populations with and without limited nutrient source in case of different weather circumstances and effects

A population dynamical model of Operophtera brumata, L. extended by climatic factors

Setting out from the database of Operophtera brumata, L. in between 1973 and 2000 due to the Light Trap Network in Hungary, we introduce a simple theta-logistic population dynamical model based on endogenous and exogenous factors, only. We create an indicator set from which we can choose some elements with which we can improve the fitting results the most effectively. Than we extend the basic simple model with additive climatic factors. The parameter optimization is based on the minimized root mean square error. The best model is chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally we run the calibrated extended model with daily outputs of the regional climate model RegCM3.1, regarding 1961-1990 as reference period and 2021-2050 with 2071-2100 as future predictions. The results of the three time intervals are fitted with Beta distributions and compared statistically. The expected changes are discussed

Frequency and variability trends of extreme meteorological events in theMoson Plain, Hungary (1961–2018)

Corresponding to the global trends, the territory of Hungary is endangered by extreme weather manifestations. The increased frequency of the unfavorable effects (inland water, flood, drought, heat stress) can be detected. These harmful manifestations result in a significant economic and environmental risk. To investigate adverse environmental effects and risks that have an impact on economic and productive activities is essential. The aim of our research is to present the transformation of the climatic system of the Moson Plain in the northwestern part of Hungary by analyzing special indicators based on daily temperature and precipitation data covering approximately two climatic cycles (1961–1990; 1991–2018). Based on our results, we can report the formation of a warming microclimate with whimsical precipitation rates, which is accompanied by a decrease in low temperature values. At the same time, we can observe more prominent manifestations of heat waves

Revision of the performance evaluation methods of sensory panellists performing descriptive analysis

Sensory tests form the basis for sensory science. Sensory science uses human senses as measurement tools. During sensory tests, the properties of a product are evaluated by sensory panelists and by a sensory panel consisting of them. Decisions made after sensory tests are fundamentally determined by the quality of the data experienced, therefore, the quality of sensory data is determined by the trained and expert sensory sensory panel and its members. In our work, revision of the correlation and regression methods recommended by the standard titled „MSZ ISO 11132:2013 Sensory analysis. Methodology. Guidelines for monitoring the performance of a quantitative sensory panel” are described, and corrections are suggested

From phenology models to risk indicator analysis

In this paper we outline a phenology model for estimating budbreak and full bloom starting dates of sour cherry on the effective heat sums with reasonable accuracy. With the help of RegCM3.1 model the possible trends of the phenology timing in the middle of the 21st century the shift of 12-13 days earlier budbreak and 6-7 days earlier of full bloom due to the warmer weather conditions can be clearly indicated. For the climatic characterization of sour cherry bloom period in between 1984-2010 and for the description of the expected changes in this very sensitive period of sour cherry with respect to the time slice 2021-2050, we introduce seven climatic indicators as artificial weather parameters such as the numbers of days when the temperature was under 0°C and above 10 °C, the numbers of days when there was no and more than 5 mm precipitation as well as the absolute minimum, the mean of minimum and the mean of maximum daily temperatures. We survey the changes of the indicators in the examined period (1984-2010) and, regarding the full bloom start model results, we formulate the expectations for the future and make comparisons.</jats:p

Stability of Ampelometric Characteristics of Vitis vinifera L. cv. 'Syrah' and 'Sauvignon blanc' Leaves: Impact of Within-vineyard Variability and Pruning Method/Bud Load

Historically, grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) leaf characterisation has been a driving force in the identification of cultivars. In this study, ampelometric (foliometric) analysis was done on leaf samples collected from hand-pruned, mechanically pruned and minimally pruned ‘Sauvignon blanc’ and ‘Syrah’ vines to estimate the impact of within-vineyard variability and a change in bud load on the stability of leaf properties. The results showed that within-vineyard variability of ampelometric characteristics was high within a cultivar, irrespective of bud load. In terms of the O.I.V. coding system, zero to four class differences were observed between minimum and maximum values of each characteristic. The value of variability of each characteristic was different between the three levels of bud load and the two cultivars. With respect to bud load, the number of shoots per vine had a significant effect on the characteristics of the leaf laminae. Single leaf area and lengths of veins changed significantly for both cultivars, irrespective of treatment, while angle between veins proved to be a stable characteristic. A large number of biometric data can be recorded on a single leaf; the data measured on several leaves, however, are not necessarily unique for a specific cultivar. The leaf characteristics analysed in this study can be divided into two groups according to the response to a change in bud load, i.e. stable (angles between the veins, depths of sinuses) and variable (length of the veins, length of the petiole, single leaf area). The variable characteristics are not recommended to be used in cultivar identification, unless the pruning method/bud load is known

Advantageous traits of hungarian tomato accessions for future utilization

Due to its production and consumption volume, tomato is one of the most important vegetable of the World. Extensive efforts have been made to overcome genotypic difficulties that decelerated gradual increase of yield. Throughout this improvement, plant genetic resources (PGRs) with unfavorable vegetative and generative characteristics together with possibly valuable traits (e.g. rich flavor, outstanding nutritional content, uncommon fruit size, color, and shape, high adaptation to environmental extremities) have been lost. The side-effects of modern breeding progress, such as loss of flavor, lower nutritional content are measurable now in modern varieties. Tomato PGRs collected by gene banks are available for screening and for re-use of advantageous genes; for this, accession-level testing has to be executed. The hypothesis of the present study was that the selected Hungarian tomato accessions have valuable yield characteristics, which can be utilized in future breeding programs. In a three year (2012-2014) open field trial, four PGRs with pepper-shaped fruits were grown together with San Marzano variety as a reference point. The PGRs were the followings (place of origin in brackets): RCAT030271 (Kozárd), RCAT031255 (Soltvadkert), RCAT031257 (Gyöngyös), and RCAT060349 (Nagykáta). The location was the certified organic land of SZIE Soroksár Experimental and Educational Station, Hungary. The propagation material was provided by Research Centre for Agrobiodiversity (NöDiK), Tápiószele. Weight of weekly yield was measured; the fruits were separated to three fractions, i.e. intact, cracked, and infected fractions. Coherences with weather parameters were also investigated. The potential yield (summary of all fractions) of PGRs were comparable with that of San Marzano variety in 2012, however, the cracked fraction of PGRs were significantly higher. The arid weather of 2013 reduced the ratio of cracked fractions in the case of all PGRs and the variety. The extremely humid season of 2014 was favorable especially for RCAT031257, the intact fraction of which was significantly higher than those of San Marzano. The potential yield of PGRs, with the exception of RCAT060349, was two-fold higher than the value of San Marzano. It was concluded, that scanning Hungarian tomato PGRs for useful traits (e.g. high yield in weather extremities, novel fruit color and shape) is reasonable; these characteristics can possibly be utilized by future breeding efforts. &nbsp