Scaling Observation Error for Optimal Assimilation of CCI SST Data into a Regional HYCOM EnOI System

South Africa currently possesses no operational ocean forecasting system for the purpose of predicting ocean state variables including temperature,salinity and velocity. Substantial initial efforts towards this goal have been made and resulted in a system using a regional Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) along with the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI)assimilation scheme. Assimilating only sea surface temperature (SST) observations from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) product into the system resulted in a degraded forecast. Aiming to address this, Climate Change Initiative (CCI) SSTs are assimilated into the system in an effort to improve the forecast skill. Observation errors in the assimilated product are used in the EnOI to determine whether more confidence should be placed in the model or observations in producing the analysis, but overconfidence in observations can shock the model and result in failure. To tweak the impact of the assimilation, a scaling factor is applied in the assimilation code. A scaling factor of 25 was found to produce a favourable result with lowest mean root mean square error (RMSE;1.098C) between the model and observations over time. Postulating the error to be overconfident, a floor value is introduced in order to set a minimum value for the observation error thereby reducing confidence in the observations. These experiments fared less favourably with a floor value of 0.5 and a scaling factor of 15 producing the best mean RMSE (1.118C)

Characterization of a far-red analog of ghrelin for imaging GHS-R in P19-derived cardiomyocytes.

Ghrelin and its receptor, the growth hormone secretagogue receptor (GHS-R), are expressed in the heart, and may function to promote cardiomyocyte survival, differentiation and contractility. Previously, we had generated a truncated analog of ghrelin conjugated to fluorescein isothiocyanate for the purposes of determining GHS-R expression in situ. We now report the generation and characterization of a far-red ghrelin analog, [Dpr(3)(octanoyl), Lys(19)(Cy5)]ghrelin (1-19), and show that it can be used to image changes in GHS-R in developing cardiomyocytes. We also generated the des-acyl analog, des-acyl [Lys(19)(Cy5)]ghrelin (1-19) and characterized its binding to mouse heart sections. Receptor binding affinity of Cy5-ghrelin as measured in HEK293 cells overexpressing GHS-R1a was within an order of magnitude of that of fluorescein-ghrelin and native human ghrelin, while the des-acyl Cy5-ghrelin did not bind GHS-R1a. Live cell imaging in HEK293/GHS-R1a cells showed cell surface labeling that was displaced by excess ghrelin. Interestingly, Cy5-ghrelin, but not the des-acyl analog, showed concentration-dependent binding in mouse heart tissue sections. We then used Cy5-ghrelin to track GHS-R expression in P19-derived cardiomyocytes. Live cell imaging at different time points after DMSO-induced differentiation showed that GHS-R expression preceded that of the differentiation marker aMHC and tracked with the contractility marker SERCA 2a. Our far-red analog of ghrelin adds to the tools we are developing to map GHS-R in developing and diseased cardiac tissues

Serum procalcitonin for the early recognition of nosocomial infection in the critically ill patients: a preliminary report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The usefulness of procalcitonin (PCT) measurement in critically ill medical patients with suspected nosocomial infection is unclear. The aim of the study was to assess PCT value for the early diagnosis of bacterial nosocomial infection in selected critically ill patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An observational cohort study in a 15-bed intensive care unit was performed. Seventy patients with either proven (n = 47) or clinically suspected but not confirmed (n = 23) nosocomial infection were included. Procalcitonin measurements were obtained the day when the infection was suspected (D0) and at least one time within the 3 previous days (D-3 to D0). Patients with proven infection were compared to those without. The diagnostic value of PCT on D0 was determined through the construction of the corresponding receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. In addition, the predictive value of PCT variations preceding the clinical suspicion of infection was assessed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>PCT on D0 was the best predictor of proven infection in this population of ICU patients with a clinical suspicion of infection (AUROCC = 0.80; 95% CI, 0.68–0.91). Thus, a cut-off value of 0.44 ng/mL provides sensitivity and specificity of 65.2% and 83.0%, respectively. Procalcitonin variation between D-1 and D0 was calculated in 45 patients and was also found to be predictive of nosocomial infection (AUROCC = 0.89; 95% CI, 0.79–0.98) with a 100% positive predictive value if the +0.26 ng/mL threshold value was applied. Comparable results were obtained when PCT variation between D-2 and D0, or D-3 and D0 were considered. In contrast, CRP elevation, leukocyte count and fever had a poor predictive value in our population.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>PCT monitoring could be helpful in the early diagnosis of nosocomial infection in the ICU. Both absolute values and variations should be considered and evaluated in further studies.</p

Dietary elimination of children with food protein induced gastrointestinal allergy – micronutrient adequacy with and without a hypoallergenic formula?

Background: The cornerstone for management of Food protein-induced gastrointestinal allergy (FPGIA) is dietary exclusion; however the micronutrient intake of this population has been poorly studied. We set out to determine the dietary intake of children on an elimination diet for this food allergy and hypothesised that the type of elimination diet and the presence of a hypoallergenic formula (HF) significantly impacts on micronutrient intake. Method: A prospective observational study was conducted on children diagnosed with FPIGA on an exclusion diet who completed a 3 day semi-quantitative food diary 4 weeks after commencing the diet. Nutritional intake where HF was used was compared to those without HF, with or without a vitamin and mineral supplement (VMS). Results: One-hundred-and-five food diaries were included in the data analysis: 70 boys (66.7%) with median age of 21.8 months [IQR: 10 - 67.7]. Fifty-three children (50.5%) consumed a HF and the volume of consumption was correlated to micronutrient intake. Significantly (p <0.05) more children reached their micronutrient requirements if a HF was consumed. In those without a HF, some continued not to achieve requirements in particular for vitamin D and zinc, in spite of VMS. Conclusion: This study points towards the important micronutrient contribution of a HF in children with FPIGA. Children, who are not on a HF and without a VMS, are at increased risk of low intakes in particular vitamin D and zinc. Further studies need to be performed, to assess whether dietary intake translates into actual biological deficiencies

Oxidative phosphorylation in human muscle in patients with ocular myopathy and after general anaesthesia

Abstract The fuel preference of human muscle mitochondria has been given. Substrates which are oxidized with low velocity cannot be used to detect defects in oxidative phosphorylation. After general anaesthesia, the oxygen uptake with the different substrates is much lower than after local analgesia. The latter was therefore used in the subsequent study. In 15 out of 18 patients with ocular myopathy, defects in oxidative phosporylation could be detected in isolated muscle mitochondria prepared from freshly biopsied tissue. Measurement of the activity of segments of the respiratory chain in homogenate from frozen muscle showed no, or minor defects. In two of these patients showing exercise intolerance, decreased oxidation of NAD+-linked substrates and apparently normal mitochondrial DNA, further study revealed deficiency of pyruvate dehydrogenase in a girl with ptosis and a high Km of complex I for NADH in a man. Both patients responded to vitamin therapy

Procalcitonin to Guide Initiation and Duration of Antibiotic Treatment in Acute Respiratory Infections: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis

This individual patient data meta-analysis of clinical trials investigating procalcitonin algorithms for antibiotic decision making found no increased risk of death or setting-specific treatment failure but did find significantly lower antibiotic exposure across different acute respiratory infections and clinical setting

Association of kidney function with effectiveness of procalcitonin-guided antibiotic treatment:A patient-level meta-analysis from randomized controlled trials

Patients with impaired kidney function have a significantly slower decrease of procalcitonin (PCT) levels during infection. Our aim was to study PCT-guided antibiotic stewardship and clinical outcomes in patients with impairments of kidney function as assessed by creatinine levels measured upon hospital admission. We pooled and analyzed individual data from 15 randomized controlled trials who were randomly assigned to receive antibiotic therapy based on a PCT-algorithms or based on standard of care. We stratified patients on the initial glomerular filtration rate (GFR, ml/min/1.73 m2) in three groups (GFR >90 [chronic kidney disease; CKD 1], GFR 15-89 [CKD 2-4] and GFR0.05). This individual patient data meta-analysis confirms that the use of PCT in patients with impaired kidney function, as assessed by admission creatinine levels, is associated with shorter antibiotic courses and lower mortality rates

Hospital mortality among major trauma victims admitted on weekends and evenings: a cohort study

Article deposited according to publisher policy posted on SHERPA/RoMEO, 14/09/2010.YesFunding provided by the Open Access Authors Fund

Diagnostic and prognostic value of procalcitonin among febrile critically ill patients with prolonged ICU stay

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Procalcitonin (PCT) has been proposed as a diagnostic and prognostic sepsis marker, but has never been validated in febrile patients with prolonged ICU stay.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients were included in the study provided they were hospitalised in the ICU for > 10 days, were free of infection and presented a new episode of SIRS, with fever >38°C being obligatory. Fifty patients fulfilled the above criteria. PCT was measured daily during the ICU stay. The primary outcome was proven infection.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty-seven out of 50 patients were diagnosed with infection. Median PCT on the day of fever was 1.18 and 0.17 ng/ml for patients with and without proven infections (p < 0.001). The area under the curve for PCT was 0.85 (95% CI; 0.71-0.93), for CRP 0.65 (0.46-0.78) and for WBC 0.68 (0.49-0.81). A PCT level of 1 ng/mL yielded a negative predictive value of 72% for the presence of infection, while a PCT of 1.16 had a specificity of 100%. A two-fold increase of PCT between fever onset and the previous day was associated with proven infection (p 0.001) (OR = 8.55; 2.4-31.1), whereas a four-fold increase of PCT of any of the 6 preceding days was associated with a positive predictive value exceeding 69.65%. A PCT value less than 0.5 ng/ml on the third day after the advent of fever was associated with favorable survival (p 0.01).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The reported data support that serial serum PCT may be a valuable diagnostic and prognostic marker in febrile chronic critically ill patients.</p