Estimating the size of dog populations in Tanzania to inform rabies control

Estimates of dog population sizes are a prerequisite for delivering effective canine rabies control. However, dog population sizes are generally unknown in most rabies-endemic areas. Several approaches have been used to estimate dog populations but without rigorous evaluation. We compare post-vaccination transects, household surveys, and school-based surveys to determine which most precisely estimates dog population sizes. These methods were implemented across 28 districts in southeast Tanzania, in conjunction with mass dog vaccinations, covering a range of settings, livelihoods, and religious backgrounds. Transects were the most precise method, revealing highly variable patterns of dog ownership, with human/dog ratios ranging from 12.4:1 to 181.3:1 across districts. Both household and school-based surveys generated imprecise and, sometimes, inaccurate estimates, due to small sample sizes in relation to the heterogeneity in patterns of dog ownership. Transect data were subsequently used to develop a predictive model for estimating dog populations in districts lacking transect data. We predicted a dog population of 2,316,000 (95% CI 1,573,000–3,122,000) in Tanzania and an average human/dog ratio of 20.7:1. Our modelling approach has the potential to be applied to predicting dog population sizes in other areas where mass dog vaccinations are planned, given census and livelihood data. Furthermore, we recommend post-vaccination transects as a rapid and effective method to refine dog population estimates across large geographic areas and to guide dog vaccination programmes in settings with mostly free roaming dog populations

Comparing methods of assessing dog rabies vaccination coverage in rural and urban communities in Tanzania

Rabies can be eliminated by achieving comprehensive coverage of 70% of domestic dogs during annual mass vaccination campaigns. Estimates of vaccination coverage are, therefore, required to evaluate and manage mass dog vaccination programs; however, there is no specific guidance for the most accurate and efficient methods for estimating coverage in different settings. Here, we compare post-vaccination transects, school-based surveys, and household surveys across 28 districts in southeast Tanzania and Pemba island covering rural, urban, coastal and inland settings, and a range of different livelihoods and religious backgrounds. These approaches were explored in detail in a single district in northwest Tanzania (Serengeti), where their performance was compared with a complete dog population census that also recorded dog vaccination status. Post-vaccination transects involved counting marked (vaccinated) and unmarked (unvaccinated) dogs immediately after campaigns in 2,155 villages (24,721 dogs counted). School-based surveys were administered to 8,587 primary school pupils each representing a unique household, in 119 randomly selected schools approximately 2 months after campaigns. Household surveys were conducted in 160 randomly selected villages (4,488 households) in July/August 2011. Costs to implement these coverage assessments were $12.01,$66.12, and $155.70 per village for post-vaccination transects, school-based, and household surveys, respectively. Simulations were performed to assess the effect of sampling on the precision of coverage estimation. The sampling effort required to obtain reasonably precise estimates of coverage from household surveys is generally very high and probably prohibitively expensive for routine monitoring across large areas, particularly in communities with high human to dog ratios. School-based surveys partially overcame sampling constraints, however, were also costly to obtain reasonably precise estimates of coverage. Post-vaccination transects provided precise and timely estimates of community-level coverage that could be used to troubleshoot the performance of campaigns across large areas. However, transects typically overestimated coverage by around 10%, which therefore needs consideration when evaluating the impacts of campaigns. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of these different methods and make recommendations for how vaccination campaigns can be better monitored and managed at different stages of rabies control and elimination programs

Towards elimination of dog-mediated human rabies: experiences from implementing a large-scale demonstration project in Southern Tanzania

No abstract available

Dog ownership practices and responsibilities for children’s health in terms of rabies control and prevention in rural communities in Tanzania

Interventions tackling zoonoses require an understanding of healthcare patterns related to both human and animal hosts. The control of dog-mediated rabies is a good example. Despite the availability of effective control measures, 59,000 people die of rabies every year worldwide. In Tanzania, children are most at risk, contributing ~40% of deaths. Mass dog vaccination can break the transmission cycle, but reaching the recommended 70% coverage is challenging where vaccination depends on willingness to vaccinate dogs. Awareness campaigns in communities often target children, but do not consider other key individuals in the prevention chain. Understanding factors related to dog ownership and household-level responsibility for dog vaccination and child health is critical to the design of vaccination strategies. We investigated who makes household decisions about dogs and on health care for children in rural Tanzania. In the Kilosa district, in-depth interviews with 10 key informants were conducted to inform analysis of data from a household survey of 799 households and a survey on Knowledge Attitudes and Practices of 417 households. The in-depth interviews were analysed using framework analysis. Descriptive analysis showed responsibilities for household decisions on dogs’ and children’s health. Multivariate analysis determined factors associated with the probability of dogs being owned and the number of dogs owned, as well as factors associated with the responsibility for child health. Dog ownership varied considerably between villages and even households. The number of dogs per household was associated with the size of a household and the presence of livestock. Children are not directly involved in the decision to vaccinate a dog, which is largely made by the father, while responsibility for seeking health care if a child is bitten lies with the mother. These novel results are relevant for the design and implementation of rabies interventions. Specifically, awareness campaigns should focus on decision-makers in households to improve rabies prevention practices and on the understanding of processes critical to the control of zoonoses more broadly

Understanding the incidence and timing of rabies cases in domestic animals and wildlife in south-east Tanzania in the presence of widespread domestic dog vaccination campaigns

The “Zero by 30” strategic plan aims to eliminate human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030 and domestic dog vaccination is a vital component of this strategic plan. In areas where domestic dog vaccination has been implemented, it is important to assess the impact of this intervention. Additionally, understanding temporal and seasonal trends in the incidence of animal rabies cases may assist in optimizing such interventions. Data on the incidence of probable rabies cases in domestic and wild animals were collected between January 2011 and December 2018 in thirteen districts of south-east Tanzania where jackals comprise over 40% of reported rabies cases. Vaccination coverage was estimated over this period, as five domestic dog vaccination campaigns took place in all thirteen districts between 2011 and 2016. Negative binomial generalized linear models were used to explore the impact of domestic dog vaccination on the annual incidence of animal rabies cases, whilst generalized additive models were used to investigate the presence of temporal and/or seasonal trends. Increases in domestic dog vaccination coverage were significantly associated with a decreased incidence of rabies cases in both domestic dogs and jackals. A 35% increase in vaccination coverage was associated with a reduction in the incidence of probable dog rabies cases of between 78.0 and 85.5% (95% confidence intervals ranged from 61.2 to 92.2%) and a reduction in the incidence of probable jackal rabies cases of between 75.3 and 91.2% (95% confidence intervals ranged from 53.0 to 96.1%). A statistically significant common seasonality was identified in the monthly incidence of probable rabies cases in both domestic dogs and jackals with the highest incidence from February to August and lowest incidence from September to January. These results align with evidence supporting the use of domestic dog vaccination as part of control strategies aimed at reducing animal rabies cases in both domestic dogs and jackals in this region. The presence of a common seasonal trend requires further investigation but may have implications for the timing of future vaccination campaigns

Understanding the incidence and timing of rabies cases in domestic animals and wildlife in south-east Tanzania in the presence of widespread domestic dog vaccination campaigns

The “Zero by 30” strategic plan aims to eliminate human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030 and domestic dog vaccination is a vital component of this strategic plan. In areas where domestic dog vaccination has been implemented, it is important to assess the impact of this intervention. Additionally, understanding temporal and seasonal trends in the incidence of animal rabies cases may assist in optimizing such interventions. Data on the incidence of probable rabies cases in domestic and wild animals were collected between January 2011 and December 2018 in thirteen districts of south-east Tanzania where jackals comprise over 40% of reported rabies cases. Vaccination coverage was estimated over this period, as five domestic dog vaccination campaigns took place in all thirteen districts between 2011 and 2016. Negative binomial generalized linear models were used to explore the impact of domestic dog vaccination on the annual incidence of animal rabies cases, whilst generalized additive models were used to investigate the presence of temporal and/or seasonal trends. Increases in domestic dog vaccination coverage were significantly associated with a decreased incidence of rabies cases in both domestic dogs and jackals. A 35% increase in vaccination coverage was associated with a reduction in the incidence of probable dog rabies cases of between 78.0 and 85.5% (95% confidence intervals ranged from 61.2 to 92.2%) and a reduction in the incidence of probable jackal rabies cases of between 75.3 and 91.2% (95% confidence intervals ranged from 53.0 to 96.1%). A statistically significant common seasonality was identified in the monthly incidence of probable rabies cases in both domestic dogs and jackals with the highest incidence from February to August and lowest incidence from September to January. These results align with evidence supporting the use of domestic dog vaccination as part of control strategies aimed at reducing animal rabies cases in both domestic dogs and jackals in this region. The presence of a common seasonal trend requires further investigation but may have implications for the timing of future vaccination campaigns

Testing novel facial recognition technology to identify dogs during vaccination campaigns

A lack of methods to identify individual animals can be a barrier to zoonoses control. We developed and field-tested facial recognition technology for a mobile phone application to identify dogs, which we used to assess vaccination coverage against rabies in rural Tanzania. Dogs were vaccinated, registered using the application, and microchipped. During subsequent household visits to validate vaccination, dogs were registered using the application and their vaccination status determined by operators using the application to classify dogs as vaccinated (matched) or unvaccinated (unmatched), with microchips validating classifications. From 534 classified dogs (251 vaccinated, 283 unvaccinated), the application specificity was 98.9% and sensitivity 76.2%, with positive and negative predictive values of 98.4% and 82.8% respectively. The facial recognition algorithm correctly matched 249 (99.2%) vaccinated and microchipped dogs (true positives) and failed to match two (0.8%) vaccinated dogs (false negatives). Operators correctly identified 186 (74.1%) vaccinated dogs (true positives), and 280 (98.9%) unvaccinated dogs (true negatives), but incorrectly classified 58 (23.1%) vaccinated dogs as unmatched (false negatives). Reduced application sensitivity resulted from poor quality photos and light-associated color distortion. With development and operator training, this technology has potential to be a useful tool to identify dogs and support research and intervention programs

Integrating a community-based continuous mass dog vaccination delivery strategy into the veterinary system of Tanzania: a process evaluation using normalization process theory

Sustained vaccination coverage of domestic dog populations can interrupt rabies transmission. However, challenges remain including low dog owner participation, high operational costs associated with current (centralized and annually delivered (pulse)) approaches and high dog population turnover. To address these challenges an alternative (community-based continuous mass dog vaccination (CBC-MDV)) approach was designed. We investigated the potential for successful normalization of CBC-MDV into routine practice within the context of local communities and the veterinary system of Tanzania Methods: In a process evaluation of a pilot implementation of CBC-MDV, we conducted in-depth interviews with implementers and community leaders (n = 24), focus group discussion with implementers and community members (n = 12), and non-participant observation (n = 157 h) of delivery of the intervention components. We analyzed these data thematically drawing on the normalization process theory, to assess factors affecting implementation and integration. Main findings: Implementers and community members clearly understood the values and benefits of the CBC-MDV, regarding it as an improvement over the pulse strategy. They had a clear understanding of what was required to enact CBC-MDV and considered their own involvement to be legitimate. The approach fitted well into routine schedules of implementers and the context (infrastructure, skill sets and policy). Implementers and community members positively appraised CBC-MDV in terms of its perceived impact on rabies and recommended its use across the country. Implementers and community members further believed that vaccinating dogs free of charge was critical and made community mobilization easier. However, providing feedback to communities and involving them in evaluating outcomes of vaccination campaigns were reported to have not been done. Local politics was cited as a barrier to collaboration between implementers and community leaders. Conclusion: This work suggests that CBC-MDV has the potential to be integrated and sustained in the context of Tanzania. Involving communities in design, delivery and monitoring of CBC-MDV activities could contribute to improving and sustaining its outcomes

System Thinking and Citizen Participation Is Still Missing in One Health Initiatives - Lessons From Fifteen Evaluations.

Tackling complex public health challenges requires integrated approaches to health, such as One Health (OH). A key element of these approaches is the integration of knowledge across sectors, disciplines and stakeholders. It is not yet clear which elements of knowledge integration need endorsement to achieve best outcomes. This paper assesses 15 OH initiatives in 16 African, Asian and European countries to identify opportunities to improve knowledge integration and to investigate geographic influences on knowledge integration capacities. Two related evaluation tools, both relying on semi-quantitative questionnaires, were applied to two sets of case studies. In one tool, the questions relate to operations and infrastructure, while the other assigns questions to the three phases of "design," "implementation," and "evaluation" of the project life cycle. In both, the question scores are aggregated using medians. For analysis, extreme values were identified to highlight strengths and weaknesses. Seven initiatives were assessed by a single evaluator external to the initiative, and the other eight initiatives were jointly assessed by several internal and external evaluators. The knowledge integration capacity was greatest during the project implementation stage, and lowest during the evaluation stage. The main weaknesses pointing towards concrete potential for improvement were identified to be a lack of consideration of systemic characteristics, missing engagement of external stakeholders and poor bridging of knowledge, amplified by the absence of opportunities to learn and evolve in a collective process. Most users were unfamiliar with the systems approach to evaluation and found the use of the tools challenging, but they appreciated the new perspective and saw benefits in the ensuing reflections. We conclude that systems thinking and associated practises for OH require not only specific education in OH core competencies, but also methodological and institutional measures to endorse broad participation. To facilitate meta-analyses and generic improvement of integrated approaches to health we suggest including knowledge integration processes as elements to report according to the COHERE guidelines