Temporal association between childhood leukaemia and population growth in Swiss municipalities.

The population mixing hypothesis proposes that childhood leukaemia (CL) might be a rare complication of a yet unidentified subclinical infection. Large population influxes into previously isolated rural areas may foster localised epidemics of the postulated infection causing a subsequent increase of CL. While marked population growth after a period of stability was central to the formulation of the hypothesis and to the early studies on population mixing, there is a lack of objective criteria to define such growth patterns. We aimed to determine whether periods of marked population growth coincided with increases in the risk of CL in Swiss municipalities. We identified incident cases of CL aged 0-15 years for the period 1985-2010 from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. Annual data on population counts in Swiss municipalities were obtained for 1980-2010. As exposures, we defined (1) cumulative population growth during a 5-year moving time window centred on each year (1985-2010) and (2) periods of 'take-off growth' identified by segmented linear regression. We compared CL incidence across exposure categories using Poisson regression and tested for effect modification by degree of urbanisation. Our study included 1500 incident cases and 2561 municipalities. The incident rate ratio (IRR) comparing the highest to the lowest quintile of 5-year population growth was 1.18 (95 % CI 0.96, 1.46) in all municipalities and 1.33 (95 % CI 0.93, 1.92) in rural municipalities (p value interaction 0.36). In municipalities with take-off growth, the IRR comparing the take-off period (>6 % annual population growth) with the initial period of low or negative growth (<2 %) was 2.07 (95 % CI 0.95, 4.51) overall and 2.99 (1.11, 8.05) in rural areas (p interaction 0.52). Our study provides further support for the population mixing hypothesis and underlines the need to distinguish take-off growth from other growth patterns in future research

Birth characteristics and childhood leukemia in Switzerland: a register-based case-control study.

PURPOSE Initial genetic alterations in the development of childhood leukemia occur in utero or before conception; both genetic and environmental factors are suspected to play a role. We aimed to investigate the associations between childhood leukemia and perinatal characteristics including birth order, birth interval to older siblings, parental age, birth weight, and multiple birth. METHODS We identified cases diagnosed between 1981 and 2015 and born in Switzerland between 1969 and 2015 from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry and randomly sampled five controls per case from national birth records matched on date of birth, sex, and municipality of residence at birth. We used conditional logistic regression to investigate associations between perinatal characteristics and leukemia at ages 0-15 and 0-4 years, and the subtypes acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). RESULTS The study included 1,403 cases of leukemia. We observed increased risks associated with high birth weight (adjusted OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.12-1.69) and multiple birth (1.89, 1.24-2.86). These associations were similar for ALL and stronger for leukemia at ages 0-4 years. For AML, we observed an increased risk for higher birth order (3.08, 0.43-22.03 for fourth or later born children). We found no associations with other perinatal characteristics. CONCLUSION This register-based case-control study adds to the existing evidence of a positive association between high birth weight and risk of childhood leukemia. Furthermore, it suggests children from multiple births are at an increased risk of leukemia

Space-time clustering of childhood cancers: a systematic review and pooled analysis.

The aetiology of childhood cancers remains largely unknown. Space-time clustering of cases might imply an aetiological role of infections. We aimed to review the evidence of space-time clustering of specific childhood cancers. We searched Medline and Embase for population-based studies that covered a pre-defined study area, included cases under 20 years of age and were published before July 2016. We extracted all space-time clustering tests and calculated the proportion of positive tests per diagnostic group. In a pooled analysis, we performed a Knox test of the number of pairs of cases close to each other in time and space pooled across studies. 70 studies met our eligibility criteria, 32 of which reported Knox tests. For leukaemia, the proportion of positive tests was higher than expected by chance at both time of diagnosis (26%) and birth (11%). The pooled analysis showed strong evidence of clustering at diagnosis for children aged 0-5 years for a spatial and temporal lag of 5 km and 6 months, respectively (p < 0.001). The evidence was mixed for lymphoma and tumours of the central nervous system. The current study suggests that leukaemia cases cluster in space-time due to an aetiological factor affecting children under 5 years of age. The observed pattern of clustering of young children close to time of diagnosis is compatible with Greaves' delayed-infections-hypothesis

Space-Time Clustering of Childhood Leukemia: Evidence of an Association with ETV6-RUNX1 (TEL-AML1) Fusion

BACKGROUND: Many studies have observed space-time clustering of childhood leukemia (CL) yet few have attempted to elicit etiological clues from such clustering. We recently reported space-time clustering of CL around birth, and now aim to generate etiological hypotheses by comparing clustered and nonclustered cases. We also investigated whether the clustering resulted from many small aggregations of cases or from a few larger clusters. METHODS: We identified cases of persons born and diagnosed between 1985 and 2014 at age 0-15 years from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. We determined spatial and temporal lags that maximized evidence of clustering based on the Knox test and classified cases born within these lags from another case as clustered. Using logistic regression adjusted for child population density, we determined whether clustering status was associated with age at diagnosis, immunophenotype, cytogenetic subtype, perinatal and socioeconomic characteristics, and pollution sources. RESULTS: Analyses included 1,282 cases of which 242 were clustered (born within 1 km and 2 years from another case). Of all investigated characteristics only the t(12;21)(p13;q22) translocation (resulting in ETV6-RUNX1 fusion) differed significantly in prevalence between clustered and nonclustered cases (40% and 25%, respectively; adjusted OR 2.54 [1.52-4.23]; p = 0.003). Spatio-temporal clustering was driven by an excess of aggregations of two or three children rather than by a few large clusters. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest ETV6-RUNX1 is associated with space-time clustering of CL and are consistent with an infection interacting with that oncogene in early life leading to clinical leukemia

Population mixing and the risk of childhood leukaemia in Switzerland: a census-based cohort study

Childhood leukaemia (CL) may have an infectious cause and population mixing may therefore increase the risk of CL. We aimed to determine whether CL was associated with population mixing in Switzerland. We followed children aged <16 years in the Swiss National Cohort 1990-2008 and linked CL cases from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry to the cohort. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all CL, CL at age <5 years and acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) for three measures of population mixing (population growth, in-migration and diversity of origin), stratified by degree of urbanisation. Measures of population mixing were calculated for all municipalities for the 5-year period preceding the 1990 and 2000 censuses. Analyses were based on 2,128,012 children of whom 536 developed CL. HRs comparing highest with lowest quintile of population growth were 1.11 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.65-1.89] in rural and 0.59 (95 % CI 0.43-0.81) in urban municipalities (interaction: p = 0.271). Results were similar for ALL and for CL at age <5 years. For level of in-migration there was evidence of a negative association with ALL. HRs comparing highest with lowest quintile were 0.60 (95 % CI 0.41-0.87) in urban and 0.61 (95 % CI 0.30-1.21) in rural settings. There was little evidence of an association with diversity of origin. This nationwide cohort study of the association between CL and population growth, in-migration and diversity of origin provides little support for the population mixing hypothesis

Background ionizing radiation and the risk of childhood cancer : a census-based nationwide cohort study

Exposure to medium or high doses of ionizing radiation is a known risk factor for cancer in children. The extent to which low-dose radiation from natural sources contributes to the risk of childhood cancer remains unclear.; In a nationwide census-based cohort study, we investigated whether the incidence of childhood cancer was associated with background radiation from terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays.; Children > 16 years of age in the Swiss National Censuses in 1990 and 2000 were included. The follow-up period lasted until 2008, and incident cancer cases were identified from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. A radiation model was used to predict dose rates from terrestrial and cosmic radiation at locations of residence. Cox regression models were used to assess associations between cancer risk and dose rates and cumulative dose since birth.; Among 2,093,660 children included at census, 1,782 incident cases of cancer were identified including 530 with leukemia, 328 with lymphoma, and 423 with a tumor of the central nervous system (CNS). Hazard ratios for each millisievert increase in cumulative dose of external radiation were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.05) for any cancer, 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.08) for leukemia, 1.01 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.05) for lymphoma, and 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.08) for CNS tumors. Adjustment for a range of potential confounders had little effect on the results.; Our study suggests that background radiation may contribute to the risk of cancer in children, including leukemia and CNS tumors.; Spycher BD, Lupatsch JE, Zwahlen M, Röösli M, Niggli F, Grotzer MA, Rischewski J, Egger M, Kuehni CE, for the Swiss Pediatric Oncology Group and the Swiss National Cohort. 2015. Background ionizing radiation and the risk of childhood cancer: a census-based nationwide cohort study. Environ Health Perspect 123:622-628; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408548

Neighbourhood child population density as a proxy measure for exposure to respiratory infections in the first year of life: A validation study.

BACKGROUND:Assessing exposure to infections in early childhood is of interest in many epidemiological investigations. Because exposure to infections is difficult to measure directly, epidemiological studies have used surrogate measures available from routine data such as birth order and population density. However, the association between population density and exposure to infections is unclear. We assessed whether neighbourhood child population density is associated with respiratory infections in infants. METHODS:With the Basel-Bern lung infant development study (BILD), a prospective Swiss cohort study of healthy neonates, respiratory symptoms and infections were assessed by weekly telephone interviews with the mother throughout the first year of life. Using population census data, we calculated neighbourhood child density as the number of children < 16 years of age living within a 250 m radius around the residence of each child. We used negative binomial regression models to assess associations between neighbourhood child density and the number of weeks with respiratory infections and adjusted for potential confounders including the number of older siblings, day-care attendance and duration of breastfeeding. We investigated possible interactions between neighbourhood child population density and older siblings assuming that older siblings mix with other children in the neighbourhood. RESULTS:The analyses included 487 infants. We found no evidence of an association between quintiles of neighbourhood child density and number of respiratory symptoms (p = 0.59, incidence rate ratios comparing highest to lowest quintile: 1.15, 95%-confidence interval: 0.90-1.47). There was no evidence of interaction with older siblings (p = 0.44). Results were similar in crude and in fully adjusted models. CONCLUSIONS:Our study suggests that in Switzerland neighbourhood child density is a poor proxy for exposure to infections in infancy

Frequency of individual CL clusters by cluster size in the empirical and 999 Monte Carlo samples.

<p>Frequency of individual CL clusters by cluster size in the empirical and 999 Monte Carlo samples.</p