Dynamics of Eddy-Driven Low-Frequency Dipole Modes. Part II: Free Mode Characteristics of NAO and Diagnostic Study

Through calculating the scatter diagrams of the streamfunction ( P or T) versus potential vorticity (PV)(qP or qT), where P and T are the planetary-scale streamfunction and total streamfunction, respectively, and using a weakly nonlinear NAO model proposed in Part I of this paper, it is suggested that negative- and positive-phase NAO events may approximately correspond to free modes even though driven by synopticscale eddies. In a planetary-scale field, the qP( P) scatter diagram of an NAO event exhibits a linear multivalued functional relationship in a narrow region for the negative phase, but exhibits a linear singlevalued functional relationship during the positive phase. It was also found that there is no steepening of the slope of the main straight line in the qP( P) scatter diagrams for two phases of the NAO event. Instead, the slope of the straight line in the scatterplots is time independent throughout the life cycle of the NAO event. However, when synoptic-scale eddies are included in the streamfunction field, the qT( T) scatter diagram of the negative-phase NAO event shows a trend toward steepening during the intensification phase, and this tendency reverses during the decay phase. During the positive NAO phase the slope of the qt( T) scatter diagram shoals during the intensification phase and then steepens during the decay phase. Thus, it appears that the steepening and shoaling of the scatter diagrams of the streamfunction versus PV for the negative and positive-phase NAO events are attributed to the effect of synoptic-scale eddies that force NAO events to form. Diagnostic studies using both composite and unfiltered fields of observed NAO events are presented to confirm these conclusions

Dynamics of Eddy-Driven Low-Frequency Dipole Modes. Part I: A Simple Model of North Atlantic Oscillations

A simple theoretical model is proposed to clarify how synoptic-scale waves drive the life cycle of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with a period of nearly two weeks. This model is able to elucidate what determines the phase of the NAO and an analytical solution is presented to indicate a high similarity between the dynamical processes of the NAO and zonal index, which is not derived analytically in previous theoretical studies. It is suggested theoretically that the NAO is indeed a nonlinear initial-value problem, which is forced by both preexisting planetary-scale and synoptic-scale waves. The eddy forcing arising from the preexisting synoptic-scale waves is shown to be crucial for the growth and decay of the NAO, but the preexisting low-over-high (high-over-low) dipole planetary-scale wave must be required to match the preexisting positive-over-negative (negative-over-positive) dipole eddy forcing so as to excite a positive (negative) phase NAO event. The positive and negative feedbacks of the preexisting dipole eddy forcing depending upon the background westerly wind seem to dominate the life cycle of the NAO and its life period. An important finding in the theoretical model is that negative-phase NAO events could be excited repeatedly after the first event has decayed, but for the positive phase downstream isolated dipole blocks could be produced after the first event has decayed. This is supported by observed cases of the NAO events presented in this paper. In addition, a statistical study of the relationship between the phase of the NAO and blocking activity over Europe in terms of the seasonal mean NAO index shows that blocking events over Europe are more frequent and long-lived for strong positive-phase NAO years, indicating that the positivephase NAO favors the occurrence of European blocking events

Nonlinear response of atmospheric blocking to early Winter Barents-Kara seas warming: An idealized model study

Wintertime Ural blocking (UB) has been shown to play an important role in cold extremes over Eurasia, and thus it is useful to investigate the impact of warming over the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) on the behavior of Ural blocking. Here the response of UB to stepwise tropospheric warming over the BKS is examined using a dry dynamic core model. Nonlinear responses are found in the frequency and local persistence of UB. The frequency and local persistence of the UB increase with the strength of BKS warming in a less strong range and decrease with the further increase of BKS warming, which is linked to the UB propagation influenced by upstream background atmospheric circulation. For a weak BKS warming, the UB becomes more persistent due to its less westward movement associated with intensified upstream zonal wind and meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) in the North Atlantic mid-high latitudes, which corresponds to a negative height response over the North Atlantic high latitudes. When BKS warming is strong, a positive height response appears in the early winter stratosphere, and its subsequent downward propagation leads to a negative NAO response or increased Greenland blocking events, which reduces zonal wind and PVy in the high latitudes from North Atlantic to Europe, thus enhancing the westward propagation of UB and reducing its local persistence. The transition to the negative NAO phase and the retrogression of UB are not found when numerically suppressing the downward influence of weakened stratospheric polar vortex, suggesting a crucial role of the stratospheric pathway in nonlinear responses of UB to the early winter BKS warming.publishedVersio

Winter cold extremes over the eastern North America: Pacific origins of interannual-to-decadal variability

Winter cold extreme events have been observed to frequently take place over North America mainly over its east side, which show significant interannual and decadal variability and cause huge economic losses in the United States. However, it is unclear what leads to the interannual-decadal variability of winter cold extremes over the eastern North America. In this study, we indicate that the decadal variability of winter cold extremes over the eastern North America, whose period is shortened in the recent decades, is mainly tied to Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), whereas their interannual variability is mainly regulated by Victoria mode (VM). A positive PDO promotes cold extremes in the lower latitudes of the eastern North America mainly owing to the presence of positive Pacific North American (PNA ^+ ) patterns, whereas a positive VM is favorable for intense cold extremes in the higher latitudes of the eastern North America mainly due to the occurrence of negative North Pacific oscillation (NPO ^− ) patterns. Thus, the positive VM and PDO combine to significantly contribute to the interannual-to-decadal variability of winter cold extremes over the eastern North America through changes in the winter NPO ^− and PNA ^+ patterns due to the variations of meridional background potential vorticity gradient and basic zonal winds. These new findings can help us understand what are the origins of the interannual-decadal variability of winter cold extremes over the eastern North America

Effects of Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking on Arctic Sea Ice Decline in Winter at Weekly Time Scales

In this study, the effects of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking circulation on Arctic sea ice decline at weekly time scales are examined by defining four key regions based on observational data analysis. Given the regression analysis, the frequently occurring atmospheric patterns related to the sea ice decline in four key sea regions (Baffin Bay, Barents-Kara Seas, Okhotsk Sea and Bering Sea) are found to be Greenland blocking (GB), Ural blocking (UB), western Pacific blocking (PB-W) and eastern Pacific blocking (PB-E), respectively. The results show that the regional blocking frequency is higher (lower) in lower (higher) sea ice winters for each key region. Moreover, composite analysis indicates that blocking evolution is usually accompanied by significant sea ice decline at weekly time scales during the blocking life cycle for each key region. In addition, the intensified surface downward infrared radiation (IR) anomaly and the precipitable water for the entire atmosphere (PWA) in each key region are found to make significant contributions to the positive surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly, which is beneficial for the reduction in sea ice. The approximate quantitative analysis of different surface energy fluxes induced by blocking is also applied. Further analysis shows that the blocking event and the associated changes in SAT and radiation anomalies for each key region lead the sea ice decline by approximately 3~6 days. This result indicates that regional blocking can contribute to regional sea ice decline at weekly time scales through surface warming associated with enhanced water vapor and associated IR variations. Further quantitative estimates indicate that regional blocking can reduce regional sea ice cover (SIC) by 49.6%, 49.4%, 52.2% and 49.5% for Baffin Bay, Barents-Kara Seas, Okhotsk Sea and Bering Sea, respectively, during the blocking life cycle. Finally, a physical process diagrammatic sketch is given to illustrate how blocking affects SIC decline

Weather Regime Transitions and the Interannual Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Part I: A Likely Connection

ABSTRACT In this study, the relationship between weather regime transitions and the interannual variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter during 1978-2008 is examined by using a statistical approach. Four classical weather regimes-the two phases of the NAO (NAO ) transitions take place. Furthermore, the NAO regime transition is found to be more likely to enhance the eastward shift of the NAO 1 (NAO 2 ) anomaly. Thus, it is hypothesized that the interannual change in the winter-mean NAO index from P1 to P2 is related to the intraseasonal NAO 2 to NAO 1 (NAO 1 to NAO 2 ) transition events during P1 (P2) because of the variation of the NAO pattern in intensity, location, and frequency (number of days). This finding is also seen from calculations of the winter monthly mean NAO index with and without NAO regime transitions