Cyclical effects of bank capital requirements with imperfect credit markets

This paper analyzes the cyclical effects of bank capital requirements in a simple model with credit market imperfections. Lending rates are set as a premium over the cost of borrowing from the central bank, with the premium itself depending on firms’ effective collateral. Basel I- and Basel II-type regulatory regimes are defined and a capital channel is introduced through a signaling effect of capital buffers on the cost of bank deposits. The macroeconomic effects of various shocks (a drop in output, an increase in the refinance rate, and a rise in the capital adequacy ratio) are analyzed, under both binding and nonbinding capital requirements. Factors affecting the procyclicality of each regime (defined in terms of the behavior of the risk premium) are also identified and policy implications are discussed.Banks&Banking Reform,Access to Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Debt Markets

Inflation Targeting in Brazil: a Keynesian Approach

O Regime de Meta de Inflação se Tornou Dominante na Formulação de Políticas dos Bancos Centrais nos Últimos 15 Anos. a Teoria Subjacente, Particularmente a Regra de Taylor, Pode ser Vista como uma Competente Generalização Desse Comportamento. de um Ponto de Vista Keynesiano, Ele Será Aceitável se Encararmos a Taxa de Juros de Equilíbrio como Apenas uma Convenção Variável e se a Combinarmos ou com uma Taxa de Câmbio ou com uma Meta de Emprego. no Caso do Brasil, Porém, Além Dessa Ressalva Teórica e da Condição do Duplo Mandato, o Regime de Metas de Inflação Enfrenta um Problema de Incoerência. esta é uma Política que se Destinava a ser Utilizada na Administração da Política Monetária, não na Mudança do Regime de Política Monetária . a Política de Metas de Inflação foi Introduzida no Brasil em 1999 como um Substituto para a Âncora Cambial, que Havia Sido Usada Desastrosamente entre 1995 e 1998. Durante Muitos Anos, o País Havia Enfrentado uma Armadilha de Alta Taxa de Juros / Taxa de Câmbio Valorizada E, Portanto, Precisava Mudar seu Regime de Política Monetária Antes de Eventualmente Adotar o Regime de Meta de Inflação. Essa Mudança, que Começou com a Flutuação de Janeiro de 1999, Deveria ter Sido Completada com Reformas Específicas (Fim da Indexação dos Serviços Públicos e dos Próprios Juros Básicos). no Entanto, em Lugar de Desenvolver uma Estratégia para Reduzir a Taxa de Juros, o Governo Continuou a Definir a Inflação como o Principal Problema a ser Enfrentado e Adotou uma Política Formal de Metas de Inflação. a Conseqüência é que Desde 1999 Essa Política se Tornou o Obstáculo que a Economia Brasileira Enfrenta para Escapar da Armadilha da Taxa de Juros

On gender and growth : the role of intergenerational health externalities and women's occupational constraints

This paper studies the growth effects of externalities associated with intergenerational health transmission, health persistence, and women's occupational constraints-- with particular emphasis on the role of access to infrastructure. The first part provides a review of the evidence on these issues. The second and third parts present an overlapping generations model of endogenous growth that captures these interactions, and characterize its properties. The model is then used to perform several gender-based or gender-related experiments -- a reduction in the cost of child rearing, improved wage equality in the market place, and better access to infrastructure. The last part draws together the implications of the analysis for promoting the role of women in growth strategies.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Population Policies,Gender and Health,Gender and Law,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems

A poverty analysis macroeconomic simulator (PAMS) linking household surveys with macro-models

The Poverty Analysis Macroeconomic Simulator (PAMS) is a model that links standard household surveys with macro frameworks. It allows users to assess the effect of macroeconomic policies-in particular, those associated with Poverty Reduction Strategies papers-on sectoral employment and income, the incidence of poverty, and income distribution. PAMS (in Excel) has three interconnected components: o A standard aggregate macro-framework that can be taken from any macro-consistency model (for example, RMSM-X, 123) to project GDP, national accounts, the national budget, the BoP, price levels, and so on, in aggregate consistent accounts. o A labor market model breaking down labor categories by skill level and economic sectors whose production total is consistent with that of the macro framework. Individuals from the household surveys are grouped in representative groups of households defined by the labor category of the head of the household. For each labor category, labor demand depends on sectoral output and real wages. Wage income levels by economic sector and labor category can thus be determined. In addition, different income tax rates and different levels of budgetary transfers across labor categories can be added to wage income. o A model that uses the labor model results for each labor category to simulate the income growth for each individual inside its own group, assumed to be the average of its group. a abstr After projecting individual incomes, PAMS calculates the incidence of poverty and the inter-group inequality. PAMS can produce historical or counterfactual simulations of: o Alternative growth scenarios with different assumptions for inflation, fiscal, and current account balances. These simulations allow test tradeoffs within a macro stabilization program. o Different combinations of sectoral growth (agricultural or industrial, tradable or non-tradable goods sectors), within a given aggregate GDP growth rate. o Tax and budgetary transfer policies. For example, PAMS will simulate a baseline macro-scenario for Burkina Faso corresponding to an existing IMF/World Bank-supported program and introduce changes in tax, fiscal, and sectoral growth policies to reduce poverty and inequality more effectively than the base scenario. So, the authors argue that there are several possible"equilibria"in terms of poverty and inequality within the same macro framework.Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Economics&Finance,Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Poverty Assessment,Health Economics&Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth

Proton Profile Function at 52.8 GeV

We present the results of a novel model-independent fit to elastic proton-proton differential cross section data at $\sqrt s$ = 52.8 GeV. Taking into account the error propagation from the fit parameters, we determine the scattering amplitude in the impact parameter space (the proton profile function) and its statistical uncertainty region. We show that both the real and imaginary parts of the profile are consistent with two dynamical contributions, one from a central dense region, up to roughly 1 fm and another from a peripheral evanescent region from 1 to 3 fm.Comment: Published in Int. J. Mod. Phys.

Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability

This paper examines the roles of bank capital regulation and monetary policy in mitigating procyclicality and promoting macroeconomic and financial stability. The analysis is based on a dynamic stochastic model with imperfect credit markets. Macroeconomic (financial) stability is defined in terms of the volatility of nominal income (real house prices). Numerical experiments show that even if monetary policy can react strongly to inflation deviations from target, combining a credit-augmented interest rate rule and a Basel III-type countercyclical capital regulatory rule may be optimal for promoting overall economic stability. The greater the degree of interest rate smoothing, and the stronger the policymaker’s concern with macroeconomic stability, the larger is the sensitivity of the regulatory rule to credit growth gaps.

Probabilistic graphical techniques for automated ice-bottom tracking and comparison between state-of-the-art solutions

We present improvements to existing frameworks for automated extraction of ice interfaces applied to two-dimensional and three-dimensional radar echograms of polar ice sheets. These improvements consist of novel image pre-processing steps and empirically-derived cost functions that allow for the integration of further domain-specific knowledge into the models employed. Along with an explanation of our modifications, we demonstrate the results obtained by our proposed models and algorithms, such as a 43% decrease in mean tracking error in the case of three-dimensional imagery. We also present the results obtained by several state-of-the-art ice-interface tracking solutions, and compare all automated results with manually-corrected ground-truth data. Furthermore, we perform a self-assessment of tracking results by analyzing the differences found between the automatically extracted ice-layers in cases where two separate radar measurements have been made at the same location

Relative returns to policy reform - evidence from controlled cross-country regressions

The authors aim at contributing to understand the dispersion of returns from policy reforms using cross-country regressions. The authors compare the"before reform"with"after reform"GDP growth outcome of countries that undertook import-liberalization and fiscal policy reforms. They survey a large sample (about 54) of developing countries over the period 1980-99. The benefits of openness to trade and fiscal prudence have been extensively identified in the growth literature, but the evidence from simple cross-section analysis can sometimes be inconclusive and remains vulnerable to criticism on estimation techniques, such as identification, endogeneity, multi-colinearity, and the quality of the data. The authors use a different analytical framework that establishes additional controls. First, they construct a counterfactual control group. These are countries that-under specific thresholds-did not introduce policy reforms under scrutiny. Second, the authors also try to use the most appropriate variable of policy reform, for example, exogenous changes in import-tariffs instead of the endogenous sum of all trade flows. Third, the authors try to base the before-after reform comparison on the most accurate date for the beginning of a policy reform period (instead of comparing averages over fixed intervals of time). Once these controls are set, they explain the difference between average GDP growth rates during the country-specific post and the pre-reform periods, relative to the average GDP growth of the relevant control group. The explanatory variables in the regressions include the standard growth-regression controls. The results are the following: 1) With a better measurement and timing of the policy reforms, the growth effect (the"returns on reform") is generally smaller than in previous papers. 2) There is evidence of contingent relationships between policy and growth, corresponding to the country's size, its export profile, and its governance. 2) Within the group of policy reformers, some countries have exhibited a relatively weaker growth response. Overall, the findings suggest that more accurate measurement and definition of the timing of reforms does not strengthen the significance of the effects of reforms on GDP growth. In fact, the effects are weaker than indicated in most cross-section studies. This suggests that the policy implications to be derived from these relationships should be treated with even more caution than previously thought.Environmental Economics&Policies,Trade Policy,Public Health Promotion,Economic Theory&Research,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth,Environmental Economics&Policies,Trade and Regional Integration

Existence of global attractors and gradient property for a class of non local evolution equations

Existence of global attractors and gradient property for a class of non local evolution equation