Good Predictions and Bad Policies

Relatively little has been said on economic policy by participants in the debate on the realisticness of assumptions in economic models. What has been said is that a `Friedmanian´ methodology which accepts unrealistic assumptions and is only concerned with correct predictions is appropriate from the perspective of a practical economist who is in charge of designing policy. This paper tries to show that this is not true. Even if a model provides very accurate predictions of an event, its ability to provide valid explanations is determined by the realisticness of its underlying assumptions. Different assumptions yield different explanations and unrealistic assumptions tend to provide no explanation at all. There is a strong relation between the way a phenomenon is explained and understood and the actions that are consequently recommended. Therefore, a model based on unrealistic assumptions is not a reliable source of advice on policy.Milton Friedman, unrealistic assumptions, economic policy, economic models, instrumentalism.

Gestión del conocimiento. Perspectiva multidisciplinaria. Volumen 17

El libro “Gestión del Conocimiento. Perspectiva Multidisciplinaria”, Volumen 17 de la Colección Unión Global, es resultado de investigaciones. Los capítulos del libro, son resultados de investigaciones desarrolladas por sus autores. El libro es una publicación internacional, seriada, continua, arbitrada, de acceso abierto a todas las áreas del conocimiento, orientada a contribuir con procesos de gestión del conocimiento científico, tecnológico y humanístico. Con esta colección, se aspira contribuir con el cultivo, la comprensión, la recopilación y la apropiación social del conocimiento en cuanto a patrimonio intangible de la humanidad, con el propósito de hacer aportes con la transformación de las relaciones socioculturales que sustentan la construcción social de los saberes y su reconocimiento como bien público

Anuario del Centro de Estudios Martianos (Vol. 18 1995)

El Anuario del Centro de Estudios Martianos es la publicación insignia de esta institución y heredera directa del Anuario Martiano de la Biblioteca Nacional José Martí, que se publicó entre 1969 y 1977, bajo la dirección del poeta y ensayista Cintio Vitier. Desde que salió a la luz su primera entrega, en 1978, se han publicado treinta y cinco números, en los que aparecen artículos y ensayos de importantes estudiosos de la vida y obra del Apóstol, en Cuba y el resto del mundo. En sus secciones fijas (Otros textos de José Martí, Documentos, Estudios y aproximaciones, Vigencias, Publicaciones, Bibliografía, Constante) y los apartados especiales, los lectores pueden conocer disímiles temas del quehacer martiano internacional, en el año que termina además de mantenerse al tanto de las últimas contribuciones de los promotores e investigadores de la obra martiana en el orbe

Anuario del Centro de Estudios Martianos (Vol. 37 2014)

El Anuario del Centro de Estudios Martianos es la publicación insignia de esta institución y heredera directa del Anuario Martiano de la Biblioteca Nacional José Martí, que se publicó entre 1969 y 1977, bajo la dirección del poeta y ensayista Cintio Vitier.<br> Desde que salió a la luz su primera entrega, en 1978, se han publicado treinta y cinco números, en los que aparecen artículos y ensayos de importantes estudiosos de la vida y obra del Apóstol, en Cuba y el resto del mundo.<br> En sus secciones fijas (Otros textos de José Martí, Documentos, Estudios y aproximaciones, Vigencias, Publicaciones, Bibliografía, Constante) y los apartados especiales, los lectores pueden conocer disímiles temas del quehacer martiano internacional, en el año que termina además de mantenerse al tanto de las últimas contribuciones de los promotores e investigadores de la obra martiana en el orbe

XVII International Congress of Control Electronics and Telecommunications: "Advanced Science, Technology and Innovation to move towards a new socio-technical system: Sustainable Social Transformation"

Contenido: Approach to the diagnostic of cesarean birth using bio-inspired models. ; Design of a tool in a virtual reality environment to manipulate anatomical models. ; The effect of COVID-19 restrictions on the electricity price forecasting models. ; Depression prevention through artificial intelligence. ; State of the art in Prototypes as complements to the learning of the Colombian Sign Language (LSC). ; A computational proposal for gene expression deterministic analysis in associated disorders to depression and anxiety. ; Evaluation of postural stability from the predictability of the measurement of the center of pressure. ; Psychophysiological Analysis of Sound Stimuli.; Delphi method for the identification of relevant variables in the development of low-power photovoltaic solar projects. ; Socioeconomic impact of a refrigerator powered by a photovoltaic system in La Guajira. ; Energy Efficiency: characteristics that allow the reduction of greenhouse gases in. ; Possibilities for the implementation of a bioreactor from organic waste. ; Energy Potential with Small Hydroelectric Power Plants in Non- interconnected Zones of Colombia. ; Energy Potential in Photovoltaic Solar Solutions in Non-Interconnected Areas of Colombia. ; Photovoltaic system, towards the energy transition from home. ; Blockchain model to increase the transparency of public sector processes. ; Intelligent agricultural irrigation prescription system based on sensor networks and crop modeling. ; Design and implementation of a digital modulation classification system using intelligent algorithms. ; A mobile application proposal to minimize intermediation during agricultural process distribution of products in supply chain. ; Accompanying strategy for the social appropriation of new technologies in vulnerable agricultural communities: case in communities producing Gulupas fruits (Passiflora edulis Sims). ; Predictive model of transparency as an indicator of Public Policies. ; Smart system for recognition of ripening level in blackberry fruits. ; Project-based learning as an alternative methodology for technological education in electronics. ; Design and construction of an automated system for N. ; Four bar mechanisms (FBM) and their Software-Based applications: a reviewFT aquaponic culture of Red Carp and Crespa Lettuce. ; Intelligent search implementation for the construction of states of the art: a python application. ; Indoor and Outdoor propagation models on 5G environments: state of the art. ;The electronic detection of offenders (DOO) in the District Secretary of mobility of Bogotá: a step forward in the configuration of the concept of digital citizenship in Colombia. ; Monitoring through ICT of Mobility: technological collaborative feature to incorporate IoT in a Smart City. ; Characterization model of asphalt mixtures using digital image processing. ; Review: identification of diseases and/or pests in fruit trees through image processing techniques and artificial intelligence. ; VRS applicated to Nasa Yuwe language. ; Application of Pix2Pix for edge reconstruction in images. ; Brushless DC Motor Control System for Active Myoelectric Prosthesis. ; Implementation of a Water Conductivity Measuring System. ; 2 DOF robot programmed with MatLab® (guide and Peter Corke) and Arduino uno for writing alphabetical characters. ; Simulator of the behavior of the center of mass in a quadruped robot. ; Biomimetic prototype for flapping movement of batsContent: Contenido: Approach to the diagnostic of cesarean birth using bio-inspired models. ; Design of a tool in a virtual reality environment to manipulate anatomical models. ; The effect of COVID-19 restrictions on the electricity price forecasting models. ; Depression prevention through artificial intelligence. ; State of the art in Prototypes as complements to the learning of the Colombian Sign Language (LSC). ; A computational proposal for gene expression deterministic analysis in associated disorders to depression and anxiety. ; Evaluation of postural stability from the predictability of the measurement of the center of pressure. ; Psychophysiological Analysis of Sound Stimuli.; Delphi method for the identification of relevant variables in the development of low-power photovoltaic solar projects. ; Socioeconomic impact of a refrigerator powered by a photovoltaic system in La Guajira. ; Energy Efficiency: characteristics that allow the reduction of greenhouse gases in. ; Possibilities for the implementation of a bioreactor from organic waste. ; Energy Potential with Small Hydroelectric Power Plants in Non- interconnected Zones of Colombia. ; Energy Potential in Photovoltaic Solar Solutions in Non-Interconnected Areas of Colombia. ; Photovoltaic system, towards the energy transition from home. ; Blockchain model to increase the transparency of public sector processes. ; Intelligent agricultural irrigation prescription system based on sensor networks and crop modeling. ; Design and implementation of a digital modulation classification system using intelligent algorithms. ; A mobile application proposal to minimize intermediation during agricultural process distribution of products in supply chain. ; Accompanying strategy for the social appropriation of new technologies in vulnerable agricultural communities: case in communities producing Gulupas fruits (Passiflora edulis Sims). ; Predictive model of transparency as an indicator of Public Policies. ; Smart system for recognition of ripening level in blackberry fruits. ; Project-based learning as an alternative methodology for technological education in electronics. ; Design and construction of an automated system for N. ; Four bar mechanisms (FBM) and their Software-Based applications: a reviewFT aquaponic culture of Red Carp and Crespa Lettuce. ; Intelligent search implementation for the construction of states of the art: a python application. ; Indoor and Outdoor propagation models on 5G environments: state of the art. ;The electronic detection of offenders (DOO) in the District Secretary of mobility of Bogotá: a step forward in the configuration of the concept of digital citizenship in Colombia. ; Monitoring through ICT of Mobility: technological collaborative feature to incorporate IoT in a Smart City. ; Characterization model of asphalt mixtures using digital image processing. ; Review: identification of diseases and/or pests in fruit trees through image processing techniques and artificial intelligence. ; VRS applicated to Nasa Yuwe language. ; Application of Pix2Pix for edge reconstruction in images. ; Brushless DC Motor Control System for Active Myoelectric Prosthesis. ; Implementation of a Water Conductivity Measuring System. ; 2 DOF robot programmed with MatLab® (guide and Peter Corke) and Arduino uno for writing alphabetical characters. ; Simulator of the behavior of the center of mass in a quadruped robot. ; Biomimetic prototype for flapping movement of bat

Contemporary use of cefazolin for MSSA infective endocarditis: analysis of a national prospective cohort

Objectives: This study aimed to assess the real use of cefazolin for methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) infective endocarditis (IE) in the Spanish National Endocarditis Database (GAMES) and to compare it with antistaphylococcal penicillin (ASP). Methods: Prospective cohort study with retrospective analysis of a cohort of MSSA IE treated with cloxacillin and/or cefazolin. Outcomes assessed were relapse; intra-hospital, overall, and endocarditis-related mortality; and adverse events. Risk of renal toxicity with each treatment was evaluated separately. Results: We included 631 IE episodes caused by MSSA treated with cloxacillin and/or cefazolin. Antibiotic treatment was cloxacillin, cefazolin, or both in 537 (85%), 57 (9%), and 37 (6%) episodes, respectively. Patients treated with cefazolin had significantly higher rates of comorbidities (median Charlson Index 7, P <0.01) and previous renal failure (57.9%, P <0.01). Patients treated with cloxacillin presented higher rates of septic shock (25%, P = 0.033) and new-onset or worsening renal failure (47.3%, P = 0.024) with significantly higher rates of in-hospital mortality (38.5%, P = 0.017). One-year IE-related mortality and rate of relapses were similar between treatment groups. None of the treatments were identified as risk or protective factors. Conclusion: Our results suggest that cefazolin is a valuable option for the treatment of MSSA IE, without differences in 1-year mortality or relapses compared with cloxacillin, and might be considered equally effective

La evaluación colegiada de las competencias básicas en la Comunidad Autónoma de Canarias : hacia un modelo de escuela inclusiva y sostenible

Precede al título: Educación Primaria y Educación Secundaria ObligatoriaLa Ley Orgánica de Educación (LOE) introduce el concepto de «competencias básicas» como eje articulador del currículo, conectando de pleno con las reflexiones y las estrategias que se están desarrollando en otros sistemas educativos internacionales a la luz del informe Delors (1996), el documento DeSeCo (Definición y Selección de Competencias fundamentales) elaborado por la OCDE, de las evaluaciones PISA (Programa para la Evaluación Internacional del Alumnado), etc. Esta propuesta centra el foco en la dimensión formativa de la «evaluación», aspecto inacabado con la LOGSE (Ley Orgánica General del Sistema Educativo), a pesar de los esfuerzos realizados en esa dirección. Trabajar en las aulas para la consecución de las «competencias básicas» lleva ineludiblemente al problema de cómo evaluarlas de forma colegiada —cuando la propia ordenación del sistema educativo fragmenta cada una de las enseñanzas en diferentes áreas o materias— y de cómo emplear la información que proporciona esta labor para hacer valer el sentido formativo y regulador que debe tener la evaluación de las competencias básicas.Consejería de Educación y Universidades. Dirección General de Ordenación, Innovación y Promoción Educativa; Avda. Buenos Aires, 5; 38071 Tenerife; Tel. +34922592592; Fax +34922592570; [email protected]

Global attitudes in the management of acute appendicitis during COVID-19 pandemic: ACIE Appy Study

Background: Surgical strategies are being adapted to face the COVID-19 pandemic. Recommendations on the management of acute appendicitis have been based on expert opinion, but very little evidence is available. This study addressed that dearth with a snapshot of worldwide approaches to appendicitis. Methods: The Association of Italian Surgeons in Europe designed an online survey to assess the current attitude of surgeons globally regarding the management of patients with acute appendicitis during the pandemic. Questions were divided into baseline information, hospital organization and screening, personal protective equipment, management and surgical approach, and patient presentation before versus during the pandemic. Results: Of 744 answers, 709 (from 66 countries) were complete and were included in the analysis. Most hospitals were treating both patients with and those without COVID. There was variation in screening indications and modality used, with chest X-ray plus molecular testing (PCR) being the commonest (19\ub78 per cent). Conservative management of complicated and uncomplicated appendicitis was used by 6\ub76 and 2\ub74 per cent respectively before, but 23\ub77 and 5\ub73 per cent, during the pandemic (both P < 0\ub7001). One-third changed their approach from laparoscopic to open surgery owing to the popular (but evidence-lacking) advice from expert groups during the initial phase of the pandemic. No agreement on how to filter surgical smoke plume during laparoscopy was identified. There was an overall reduction in the number of patients admitted with appendicitis and one-third felt that patients who did present had more severe appendicitis than they usually observe. Conclusion: Conservative management of mild appendicitis has been possible during the pandemic. The fact that some surgeons switched to open appendicectomy may reflect the poor guidelines that emanated in the early phase of SARS-CoV-2