Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Time-Trends in Air Pollution Impact on Health in Italy, 1990–2019: An Analysis From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Objectives: We explored temporal variations in disease burden of ambient particulate matter 2.5 μm or less in diameter (PM2.5) and ozone in Italy using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.Methods: We compared temporal changes and percent variations (95% Uncertainty Intervals [95% UI]) in rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost, years lived with disability and mortality from 1990 to 2019, and variations in pollutant-attributable burden with those in the overall burden of each PM2.5- and ozone-related disease.Results: In 2019, 467,000 DALYs (95% UI: 371,000, 570,000) were attributable to PM2.5 and 39,600 (95% UI: 18,300, 61,500) to ozone. The crude DALY rate attributable to PM2.5 decreased by 47.9% (95% UI: 10.3, 65.4) from 1990 to 2019. For ozone, it declined by 37.0% (95% UI: 28.9, 44.5) during 1990–2010, but it increased by 44.8% (95% UI: 35.5, 56.3) during 2010–2019. Age-standardized rates declined more than crude ones.Conclusion: In Italy, the burden of ambient PM2.5 (but not of ozone) significantly decreased, even in concurrence with population ageing. Results suggest a positive impact of air quality regulations, fostering further regulatory efforts

Prevalence of Barrett's esophagus in individuals without typical symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease Prevalência do esôfago de Barrett em indivíduos sem sintomas típicos da doença por refluxo gastroesofágico

BACKGROUND: Barrett’s esophagus, the major risk factor for esophageal adenocarcinoma, is detected in approximately 10%-14% of individuals submitted to upper endoscopy for the assessment of gastroesophageal reflux disease related symptoms. Prevalence studies of Barrett’s esophagus in individuals without typical symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease have reported rates ranging from 0.6% to 25%. AIM: To determine the prevalence of Barrett’s in a Brazilian population older than 50 years without typical symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease. METHODS: A total of 104 patients (51 men), mean age of 65 years, with an indication for upper endoscopy but without symptoms of heartburn and/or acid regurgitation (determined with a validated questionnaire) were recruited. Subjects submitted to upper endoscopic examination in the last 10 years or using antisecretory medication (proton pump inhibitors) during the last 6 months were not included. Methylene blue chromoscopy was performed during the endoscopic exam to facilitate identification of the metaplastic epithelium. RESULTS: Barrett’s esophagus was diagnosed endoscopically and confirmed by histology in four patients, all of them males. The metaplastic segment was short (less than 3 cm) and free of dysplasia in all patients. The prevalence of Barrett’s esophagus was 7.75% in the male population and 3.8% in the general population studied. CONCLUSION: Due to the low prevalence of Barrett’s esophagus found in the present study, associated with the finding of short-segment Barrett’s esophagus in all cases diagnosed and the absence of dysplasia in the material analyzed, endoscopic screening for Barrett’s esophagus in patients above the age of 50 without the classical symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease is not indicated for the Brazilian population.<br>RACIONAL: O esôfago de Barrett, principal fator de risco para o adenocarcinoma do esôfago, é uma complicação da doença por refluxo gastroesofágico de longa duração, sendo detectado em, aproximadamente, 10%-14% dos indivíduos submetidos a endoscopia digestiva alta para avaliação de sintomas relacionados à doença por refluxo gastroesofágico. Estudos de prevalência do esôfago de Barrett em indivíduos sem sintomas típicos de doença por refluxo gastroesofágico mostram taxas oscilando entre 0,6% e 25%. OBJETIVO: Determinar a prevalência do esôfago de Barrett em indivíduos maiores de 50 anos sem os sintomas clássicos da doença por refluxo gastroesofágico. MÉTODOS: Foram recrutados 104 pacientes (51 homens e 53 mulheres), idade média 65 anos, com indicação de se submeterem a endoscopia digestiva alta, porém sem sintomas de pirose e/ou regurgitação ácida (certificados através de questionário validado). Foram excluídos indivíduos com exame endoscópico prévio nos últimos 10 anos ou que fizeram uso de medicação anti-secretora nos últimos 6 meses. Durante o exame endoscópico foi realizada cromoscopia com azul de metileno, para facilitar a identificação do epitélio metaplásico. RESULTADOS: O esôfago de Barrett foi diagnosticado por endoscopia e confirmado pela histologia em quatro pacientes, todos do sexo masculino. Os segmentos metaplásicos eram curtos (inferior a 3 cm) e livre de displasia em todos os pacientes. A prevalência encontrada foi de 7,75% na população masculina e 3,8% na população geral avaliada. CONCLUSÃO: Diante da baixa prevalência do esôfago de Barrett encontrada no presente estudo, associada ao achado de segmento curto de Barrett em todos os casos diagnosticados e ausência de displasia no material analisado, rastreamento endoscópico para o esôfago de Barrett em pacientes acima de 50 anos sem os sintomas clássicos da doença por refluxo gastroesofágico não se justificaria na população brasileira

Redistribution of garbage codes to underlying causes of death: a systematic analysis on Italy and a comparison with most populous Western European countries based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The proportion of reported causes of death (CoDs) that are not underlying causes can be relevant even in high-income countries and seriously affect health planning. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study identifies these 'garbage codes' (GCs) and redistributes them to underlying causes using evidence-based algorithms. Planners relying on vital registration data will find discrepancies with GBD estimates. We analyse these discrepancies, through the analysis of GCs and their redistribution