Large Deviations for the solution of a Kac-type kinetic equation

The aim of this paper is to study large deviations for the self-similar solution of a Kac-type kinetic equation. Under the assumption that the initial condition belongs to the domain of normal attraction of a stable law of index $\alpha <2$ and under suitable assumptions on the collisional kernel, precise asymptotic behavior of the large deviations probability is given

Central Limit Theorem with Exchangeable Summands and Mixtures of Stable Laws as Limits

The problem of convergence in law of normed sums of exchangeable random variables is examined. First, the problem is studied w.r.t. arrays of exchangeable random variables, and the special role played by mixtures of products of stable laws - as limits in law of normed sums in different rows of the array - is emphasized. Necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence to a specific form in the above class of measures are then given. Moreover, sufficient conditions for convergence of sums in a single row are proved. Finally, a potentially useful variant of the formulation of the results just summarized is briefly sketched, a more complete study of it being deferred to a future work

Bayesian estimation for a parametric Markov renewal model applied to seismic data.

This paper presents a complete methodology for Bayesian inference on a semi-Markov process, from the elicitation of the prior distribution, to the computation of posterior summaries, including a guidance for its JAGS implementation. The holding times (conditional on the transition between two given states) are assumed to be Weibull-distributed. We examine the elicitation of the joint prior density of the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distributions, deriving a specific class of priors in a natural way, along with a method for the determination of hyperparameters based on ``learning data'' and moment existence conditions. This framework is applied to data of earthquakes of three types of severity (low, medium and high size) that occurred in the central Northern Apennines in Italy and collected by the \cite{CPTI04} catalogue. Assumptions on two types of energy accumulation and release mechanisms are evaluated

Kinetic models with randomly perturbed binary collisions

We introduce a class of Kac-like kinetic equations on the real line, with general random collisional rules, which include as particular cases models for wealth redistribution in an agent-based market or models for granular gases with a background heat bath. Conditions on these collisional rules which guarantee both the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium profiles and their main properties are found. We show that the characterization of these stationary solutions is of independent interest, since the same profiles are shown to be solutions of different evolution problems, both in the econophysics context and in the kinetic theory of rarefied gases

Probabilistic study of the speed of approach to equilibrium for an inelastic Kac model

This paper deals with a one--dimensional model for granular materials, which boils down to an inelastic version of the Kac kinetic equation, with inelasticity parameter $p>0$. In particular, the paper provides bounds for certain distances -- such as specific weighted $\chi$--distances and the Kolmogorov distance -- between the solution of that equation and the limit. It is assumed that the even part of the initial datum (which determines the asymptotic properties of the solution) belongs to the domain of normal attraction of a symmetric stable distribution with characteristic exponent \a=2/(1+p). With such initial data, it turns out that the limit exists and is just the aforementioned stable distribution. A necessary condition for the relaxation to equilibrium is also proved. Some bounds are obtained without introducing any extra--condition. Sharper bounds, of an exponential type, are exhibited in the presence of additional assumptions concerning either the behaviour, near to the origin, of the initial characteristic function, or the behaviour, at infinity, of the initial probability distribution function

Theoremes limites pour les chaines de Markov : application aux algorithmes stochastiques

SIGLECNRS T Bordereau / INIST-CNRS - Institut de l'Information Scientifique et TechniqueFRFranc