Peer Effects on Criminal Behavior. Evidence from the homeless

This paper investigates the influence of peers on criminal behavior, using original data I collected by interviewing homeless people in Milan. Information on friends’ names was elicited, which allows to map each respondent’s network. Each individual was also asked to report his criminal status prior to becoming homeless. To estimate the causal effects of network size and of the share of criminal friends on (subsequent) criminal behavior, I rely on two instruments. The first is the share of rainy days since the individual has become homeless: rainfall fosters concentration of homeless individuals in sheltered places and increases the probability of meetings. The second instrument is the fraction of inmates released by Milan’s authorities during one’s period as homeless, which affects the supply of criminal potential friends. I find that the probability of arrest decreases by 16 percentage points with the network size, but it increases by 20 percentage points with the share of criminal friends in the group.Peer effects, crime, homeless.

The determinants of HIV infection and related sexual behaviors : evidence from Lesotho

This paper analyzes the socioeconomic determinants of HIV infection and related sexual behaviors using the 2004Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey. The authors find that in Lesotho education appears to have a protective effect: it is negatively associated with HIV infection (although not always significantly) and it strongly predicts preventive behaviors. The findings also show that married women who have extra-marital relationships are less likely to use a condom than non-married women. This is an important source of vulnerability that should be addressed in prevention efforts. The paper also analyzes HIV infection at the level of the couple. It shows that in 41 percent of the infected couples, only one of the two partners is HIV infected. Therefore, there are still opportunities for prevention inside the couple.Population Policies,HIV AIDS,Gender and Health,Disease Control&Prevention,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

Mines, migration and HIV/AIDS in southern Africa

Swaziland and Lesotho have the highest HIV prevalence in the world. They also share another distinct feature: during the last century, they sent a large numbers of migrant workers to South African mines. This paper examines whether participation in mining in a bordering country affects HIV infection rate. A job in the mines means leaving for long periods away from their families and living in an area with an active sex industry. This creates potential incentives for multiple, concurrent partnerships. Using Demographic and Health Surveys, the analysis shows that migrant miners ages 30-44 are 15 percentage points more likely to be HIV positive, and women whose partner is a migrant miner are 8 percentage points more likely to become infected. The study also shows that miners are less likely to abstain or use condoms, and female partners of miners are more likely to engage in extramarital sex. The authors interpret these results as suggesting that miners'migration into South Africa has increased the spread of HIV/AIDS in their countries of origin. Consistent with this interpretation, the association between HIV infection and being a miner or a miner's wife are not statistically significant in Zimbabwe, a country where the mining industry is local and does not involve migrating to South Africa.Population Policies,HIV AIDS,Disease Control&Prevention,Gender and Health,Gender and Law

Peer Effects on Criminal Behavior. Evidence from the homeless

This paper investigates the influence of peers on criminal behavior, using original data I collected by interviewing homeless people in Milan. Information on friends' names was elicited, which allows to map each respondent’s network. Each individual was also asked to report his criminal status prior to becoming homeless. To estimate the causal effects of network size and of the share of criminal friends on (subsequent) criminal behavior, I rely on two instruments. The first is the share of rainy days since the individual has become homeless: rainfall fosters concentration of homeless individuals in sheltered places and increases the probability of meetings. The second instrument is the fraction of inmates released by Milan’s authorities during one’s period as homeless, which affects the supply of criminal potential friends. I find that the probability of arrest decreases by 16 percentage points with the network size, but it increases by 20 percentage points with the share of criminal friends in the group.Peer effects, crime, homeless

Incentivizing safer sexual behavior: Evidence from a lottery experiment on HIV prevention

We investigate the effect of a financial lottery program in Lesotho with relatively low expected payments but a chance to win a high prize conditional on negative test results for sexually transmitted infections. The intervention resulted in a 21.4% reduction in HIV incidence over two years. Lottery incentives appear to be particularly effective in targeting individuals with ex ante risky sexual behavior, consistent with the hypothesis that lotteries are more valued by individuals willing to take risks

Developing policy evaluation in an academic setting : assets and challenges

Published: 19 April 2023Based on a seminar organized by LIEPP and CIVICA which took place at Sciences Po in June 2022, this publication brings together ten academic researchers from seven different CIVICA universities (Bocconi, CEU, EUI, Hertie School, LSE, Sciences Po, SNSPA), who are involved in various forms of policy evaluation. These contributions from Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Romania, and the United Kingdom, reflect on the assets and challenges of developing policy evaluation in an academic setting. The seminar was organized as part of CIVICA’s research focus on “Democracy in the 21st century”, but through the crosscutting nature of program evaluation, it is also of interest to CIVICA’s three others research streams (on societies in transition, data, and Europe revisited). The aim of this debate is thus to better understand the specificities, assets and challenges of developing evaluation from within an academic setting, in view of eventually reflecting on possible ways to collectively reinforce this practice within CIVICA, and use CIVICA as a leverage to reinforce this practice. This debate is organized around two topics, developing academic evaluative research, and the role of academic institutions in outreach and training in evaluation. Contributions are based on presentations of the experiences of each CIVICA partner

Homelessness and Crime: Do Your Friends Matter?

This paper investigates the influence of friends on crime, using data I collected among the homeless. To estimate the causal effects of friends and of the share of criminal friends on crime, I rely on two instruments. The first is the share of rainy days during one's first year as homeless: rainfall fosters homeless's concentration in sheltered places and increases the probability of interactions. The second is the share of inmates released during one's first year as homeless, which a\ua4ects the supply of criminal friends. I find that one additional friend decreases the probability of incarceration but criminal friends increases it