Inferences on modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslides from experimental observations on stratified soils

Le frane superficiali indotte da pioggia (quali soil slips o debris-flows) sono una tipologia di movimento franoso che può coinvolgere i primi 2-3 metri di terreno, in genere rappresentato da coltri di alterazione eluvio-colluviali. Tali fenomeni costituiscono un serio rischio per le attività antropiche se si considerano sia le elevate velocità che si possono raggiungere durante la fase di trasporto che gli ingenti volumi di terreno che possono essere mobilizzati per effetto dell'erosione sul fondo del canale. Per questo motivo, negli ultimi anni sono stati dedicati molti sforzi all'elaborazione di tecniche e metodologie funzionali alla predizione spazio-temporale di questi eventi. Tra le nuove metodologie in fase di sviluppo, rivestono particolare importanza i cosiddetti modelli numerici fisicamente basati. Tali modelli tentano di riprodurre i processi fisici che conducono all'instabilità mettendo in relazione pioggia, pressione interstiziale e condizioni di resistenza del terreno. In particolare, molti di questi modelli adottano uno schema di pendio infinito per bilanciare le forze agenti e resistenti sul volume di terreno, usando un modello di infiltrazione per determinare gli effetti della pioggia sulle variazioni di pressione interstiziale. Oltretutto, questo tipo di modelli, tenendo conto della variabilità spaziale dei parametri coinvolti (es: caratteristiche fisico-meccaniche del terreno, intensità di pioggia), possono risultare particolarmente utili per predire l'occorrenza di frane superficiali alla scala di bacino. Tuttavia, l'utilizzo di questi strumenti non sempre consente di risalire alle reali condizioni di innesco, perlopiù a causa della complessità del fenomeno simulato e dell'ingente numero di parametri in esso coinvolto. Tra i vari aspetti che necessitano di essere approfonditi, c'è anche quello del contributo alla stabilità del terreno per effetto della coesione apparente indotta dalla matrice di suzione presente in condizioni non sature. Tale effetto non può non essere preso in considerazione, soprattutto nel caso di terreni caratterizzati da una granulometria limoso-argillosa. Sebbene in letteratura esistano alcuni metodi e formule empiriche per caratterizzare la resistenza di un terreno in condizioni non sature, allo stato attuale sono ben pochi gli studi inerenti l'analisi delle condizioni idraulico-meccaniche basati su osservazioni reali. Da questo punto di vista, alcuni autori hanno evidenziato come la modellazione fisica di laboratorio su modelli di pendio in scala possa rappresentare uno strumento estremamente utile per questa tematica. Tuttavia, solo in pochissimi casi si è tentato di utilizzare i risultati sperimentali per validare e/o migliorare modelli numerici fisicamente basati dedicati alla predizione dell'innesco di frane superficiali alla scala di bacino. Pertanto, l'obiettivo di questo lavoro è quello di verificare, attraverso prove sperimentali di laboratorio, alcune assunzioni di SLIP (Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction), un modello numerico fisicamente basato finalizzato alla predizione di frane superficiali indotte da pioggia. Nello specifico il modello calcola le condizioni di stabilità, espresse in termini di Fattore di Sicurezza (FS), simulando il processo di saturazione del suolo per effetto di uno specifico input di pioggia e tenendo specificatamente conto del contributo alla resistenza indotto dalla parziale saturazione del terreno per effetto delle piogge antecedenti. Sono stati quindi analizzati i risultati di differenti prove effettuate su un profilo di terreno ricostituito all'interno di una canaletta sperimentale, con l'obiettivo di descrivere e quantificare alcuni aspetti particolari concernenti la modellazione del processo di innesco. Nello specifico, è stata analizzata l'influenza sull'insorgere dell'instabilità dello spessore di due differenti strati presenti all'interno del profilo di terreno, di cui uno dei due caratterizzato da un comportamento coesivo. Per simulare l'effetto della coesione, è stato infatti utilizzato uno strato di sabbia parzialmente saturo, mentre la stessa sabbia (ma in condizioni asciutte) è stata utilizzata per realizzare il secondo strato. Il modello di pendio così costituito è stato sottoposto a differenti tilt tests, e in ciascuna prova è stato variato lo spessore degli strati in modo tale da verificare l'influenza di questo parametro sulle condizioni di stabilità. I risultati ottenuti sono stati quindi utilizzati non solo per corroborare alcune assunzioni del modello, ma anche per verificare la relazione matematica proposta dal modello stesso, e che lega resistenza del terreno e spessore degli strati attraverso il parametro della coesione apparente.In this work, we analyzed the results of different soil laboratory tests performed in a flume test apparatus with the aim to describe and quantify some particular aspects of the modelling of soil slip phenomena. In particular, we analyzed the influence, in terms of slope stability, of the thickness of two strata (a cohesive one and a not cohesive one) composing the slope model. To simulate the presence of cohesion, a partially saturated sand was employed, while the same sand but in dry conditions was used to reproduce the not cohesive stratum. The so-constituted slope laboratory model was then submitted to tilting tests, and in each test the thickness of these layers has been varied in order to investigate the influence of this parameter on slope stability. The obtained results have been used to calibrate several parameters and verify specific assumptions of SLIP, a simplified physically-based and well-tested model for the prediction of shallow landslides occurrence

Preliminary insights from hydrological field monitoring for the evaluation of landslide triggering conditions over large areas

Rainfall-induced landslides represent a major threat to human activities, and thus an improved understanding of their triggering mechanisms is needed. The paper reports some preliminary inferences on this topic, based on the data recorded over a 2-year period by a multi-parametric monitoring station located on one of the slopes of the Monterosso catchment (Cinque Terre, north-western Italy). This catchment has experienced multiple, concurrent shallow landslides after intense rainfall events. After defining a soil hydraulic model through data interpretation and numerical simulations, slope stability analyses were performed to elucidate several aspects related to shallow landslide occurrence. Both long-term climate conditions and single rainfall events were simulated via physically based approaches. The findings from these simulations enabled us to assume the pattern of infiltration and quantify the impact of soil hydraulic behavior on landslide triggering conditions. In this regard, various analyses were carried out on the same triggering event both at local scale and in the overall catchment, with a view to highlighting the role of initial soil moisture and soil hysteretic behavior in slope stability

Road traffic pollution and childhood leukemia: a nationwide case-control study in Italy

Background The association of childhood leukemia with traffic pollution was considered in a number of studies from 1989 onwards, with results not entirely consistent and little information regarding subtypes. Aim of the study We used the data of the Italian SETIL case-control on childhood leukemia to explore the risk by leukemia subtypes associated to exposure to vehicular traffic. Methods We included in the analyses 648 cases of childhood leukemia (565 Acute lymphoblastic–ALL and 80 Acute non lymphoblastic-AnLL) and 980 controls. Information on traffic exposure was collected from questionnaire interviews and from the geocoding of house addresses, for all periods of life of the children. Results We observed an increase in risk for AnLL, and at a lower extent for ALL, with indicators of exposure to traffic pollutants. In particular, the risk was associated to the report of closeness of the house to traffic lights and to the passage of trucks (OR: 1.76; 95% CI 1.03–3.01 for ALL and 6.35; 95% CI 2.59–15.6 for AnLL). The association was shown also in the analyses limited to AML and in the stratified analyses and in respect to the house in different period of life. Conclusions Results from the SETIL study provide some support to the association of traffic related exposure and risk for AnLL, but at a lesser extent for ALL. Our conclusion highlights the need for leukemia type specific analyses in future studies. Results support the need of controlling exposure from traffic pollution, even if knowledge is not complete

Cultural Heritage and Rockfalls: Analysis of Multi-Scale Processes Nearby the Lucus Angitiae Archaeological Site (Central Italy)

Archaeological areas in the mountain region of central Italy can be seriously threatened by geological hazards, and efforts are required to preserve cultural heritage. The Lucus Angitiae is a pre-Roman site located along the western edge of the Fucino Basin, the largest continental depression of central Apennines. The carbonate slope overhanging the area is affected by active rockfall processes from two main rock escarpments. In this paper, rockfall assessment was pursued through a 3D kinematic modelling, performed by adopting a probabilistic approach. Specific attention was dedicated to the choice and calibration of the input data, based on field evidence and a literature review. Two different sizes of wedge-shaped rock blocks were identified on rock escarpments, and specific stability analyses were performed. Sensitivity analyses accounting for possible triggering factors, such as water pressure increase and seismic action, were also carried out, together with an investigation of the seismological characteristics of the area. The results of the numerical simulations were used to design effective countermeasures in the framework of a mitigation plan for protection of the archaeological site. Finally, clues of gravity-driven slope deformations at the slope scale were documented, framing the rockfall process in a wider geological scenario

Cultural Heritage and Rockfalls: Analysis of Multi-Scale Processes Nearby the <i>Lucus Angitiae</i> Archaeological Site (Central Italy)

Archaeological areas in the mountain region of central Italy can be seriously threatened by geological hazards, and efforts are required to preserve cultural heritage. The Lucus Angitiae is a pre-Roman site located along the western edge of the Fucino Basin, the largest continental depression of central Apennines. The carbonate slope overhanging the area is affected by active rockfall processes from two main rock escarpments. In this paper, rockfall assessment was pursued through a 3D kinematic modelling, performed by adopting a probabilistic approach. Specific attention was dedicated to the choice and calibration of the input data, based on field evidence and a literature review. Two different sizes of wedge-shaped rock blocks were identified on rock escarpments, and specific stability analyses were performed. Sensitivity analyses accounting for possible triggering factors, such as water pressure increase and seismic action, were also carried out, together with an investigation of the seismological characteristics of the area. The results of the numerical simulations were used to design effective countermeasures in the framework of a mitigation plan for protection of the archaeological site. Finally, clues of gravity-driven slope deformations at the slope scale were documented, framing the rockfall process in a wider geological scenario

Regional Analyses of Rainfall-Induced Landslide Initiation in Upper Gudbrandsdalen (South-Eastern Norway) Using TRIGRS Model

In Norway, shallow landslides are generally triggered by intense rainfall and/or snowmelt events. However, the interaction of hydrometeorological processes (e.g., precipitation and snowmelt) acting at different time scales, and the local variations of the terrain conditions (e.g., thickness of the surficial cover) are complex and often unknown. With the aim of better defining the triggering conditions of shallow landslides at a regional scale we used the physically based model TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope stability) in an area located in upper Gudbrandsdalen valley in South-Eastern Norway. We performed numerical simulations to reconstruct two scenarios that triggered many landslides in the study area on 10 June 2011 and 22 May 2013. A large part of the work was dedicated to the parameterization of the numerical model. The initial soil-hydraulic conditions and the spatial variation of the surficial cover thickness have been evaluated applying different methods. To fully evaluate the accuracy of the model, ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curves have been obtained comparing the safety factor maps with the source areas in the two periods of analysis. The results of the numerical simulations show the high susceptibility of the study area to the occurrence of shallow landslides and emphasize the importance of a proper model calibration for improving the reliabilit

Shallow landslide initiation on terraced slopes: inferences from a physically based approach

In the last years, great efforts have been made to improve the assessment of the temporal and spatial occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. Therefore, in this paper we used a physically based stability model (TRIGRS) in order to reproduce the landslide event occurred in the Monterosso catchment (Cinque Terre, Eastern Liguria, Italy) on 25 October 2011. The input parameters of the numerical model have been evaluated taking into account the land-use setting and paying specific attention to the evaluation of the spatial variation of soil thickness on terraced areas. The resulting safety factor maps have been compared with the inventory map of the landslides triggered during the event. The simulation results, which have been obtained also considering four different spatial resolutions of the digital terrain model, emphasize the influence of land use in shallow landslide occurrence and indicate the importance of a realistic spatial variation of soil thickness to enhance the reliability of the model. Finally, different triggering scenarios have been defined using hourly rainfall values statistically derived from historical data. The results indicate the proneness of the area to shallow landsliding, given that rainfall events with a relatively low return period (e.g. 25 years) can trigger numerous slope failures

The Pretare-Piedilama Clastic Deposit: New Evidence of a Quaternary Rock Avalanche Event in Central Apennines (Italy)

This paper deals with the origin of the Pretare clastic deposit (PRA), which crops out along the Morricone fluvial valley in the Central Apennines of Italy. With the aim of deciphering the genesis of the PRA deposit, geological s.l. and geomorphological analyses were carried out allowing for the interpretation of the PRA deposit as a rock avalanche. Furthermore, geological cross sections constrained by well-log and field survey data, together with stratigraphic, sedimentologic, and morphometric analyses, allowed us to assign the deposit to a catastrophic rock slope failure, which occurred during a cold climate of the Late Pleistocene. Several issues concerning the propagation mechanisms were inferred from the mapping of 350 boulders over the entire accumulation area and from the measure of the morphometric parameters of the landslide body. We also performed a restoration of the potential source area by comparing the reconstructed pre- and post-failure DEMs. A missing volume of 8.41 × 106 m3 was estimated on the south-eastern side of the Vettore Mt., which is consistent with the deposit volume computed from the geological interpretation (10.56 × 106 m3). The outcomes of this study provide useful insights for a better understanding of the Quaternary morpho-evolution of the Central Apennines area where analogous rock avalanche events marked the recent evolution of the belt

Earthquake-induced reactivation of landslides under variable hydrostatic conditions. Evaluation at regional scale and implications for risk assessment

Earthquake-induced landslides represent a significant seismic hazard since they can largely increase the damage and losses due to a seismic event, an issue that must be considered in land-use and risk management purposes. However, it can be difficult to consider all the natural variables, such as geotechnical parameters, that predispose the occurrence of landslides under a specific dynamic triggering, especially for wide areas. Among these, the most important and critical ones to quantify at large scale, are represented by the hydraulic conditions in both unsaturated and saturated media. For this reason, in this work we present a newly developed GIS tool that was specifically designed for the automation of a pseudo-dynamic Newmark model to estimate the coseismic displacements over wide areas. The tool takes into account reactivations of landslides under different rupture mechanisms and parametrically weighs the role of variable initial soil moisture or pressure head conditions, as well as the influence of ground shaking resulting from local amplification effects. The proposed tool was tested in the Molise region (central-southern Italy), where almost 23,000 existing landslides have been selected for evaluating potential reactivations. The obtained results point out the importance of local conditions on the displacement amount, even by considering a unique return period of the seismic action. Strengths and weaknesses of the proposed model have been also highlighted in view of potential future applications in the framework of co-seismic landslide risk assessment and mitigation measures