Requirements for global elimination of hepatitis B: a modelling study

Background Despite the existence of effective prevention and treatment interventions, hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection continues to cause nearly 1 million deaths each year. WHO aspires to global control and elimination of HBV infection. We aimed to evaluate the potential impact of public health interventions against HBV, propose targets for reducing incidence and mortality, and identify the key developments required to achieve them. Methods We developed a simulation model of the global HBV epidemic, incorporating data on the natural history of HBV, prevalence, mortality, vaccine coverage, treatment dynamics, and demographics. We estimate the impact of current interventions and scaling up of existing interventions for prevention of infection and introducing wide-scale population screening and treatment interventions on the worldwide epidemic. Findings Vaccination of infants and neonates is already driving a large decrease in new infections; vaccination has already prevented 210 million new chronic infections by 2015 and will have averted 1·1 million deaths by 2030. However, without scale-up of existing interventions, our model showed that there will be a cumulative 63 million new cases of chronic infection and 17 million HBV-related deaths between 2015 and 2030 because of ongoing transmission in some regions and poor access to treatment for people already infected. A target of a 90% reduction in new chronic infections and 65% reduction in mortality could be achieved by scaling up the coverage of infant vaccination (to 90% of infants), birth-dose vaccination (to 80% of neonates), use of peripartum antivirals (to 80% of hepatitis B e antigen-positive mothers), and population-wide testing and treatment (to 80% of eligible people). These interventions would avert 7·3 million deaths between 2015 and 2030, including 1·5 million cases of cancer deaths. An elimination threshold for incidence of new chronic infections would be reached by 2090 worldwide. The annual cost would peak at US$7·5 billion worldwide ($3·4 billion in low-income and lower-middle-income countries), but decrease rapidly and this would be accelerated if a cure is developed. Interpretation Scale-up of vaccination coverage, innovations in scalable options for prevention of mother-to-child transmission, and ambitious population-wide testing and treatment are needed to eliminate HBV as a major public health threat. Achievement of these targets could make a major contribution to one of the Sustainable Development Goals of combating hepatitis

Taking the Pressure Off the Patient - Understanding Digital Rectal Examinations on a Real Subject.

Better understanding of palpation techniques during unsighted physical examinations has mostly been limited to qualitative and quantitative studies of performance of experts whilst conducting examinations on plastic benchtop models. However, little is known about their performance when conducting such examinations on real subjects. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to better understand palpation techniques of experts whilst conducting a Digital Rectal Examination on a real subject. METHODS: We recruited four consultants from relevant specialties and asked them to conduct two DREs on a Rectal Teaching Assistant whilst wearing small position and pressure sensors on their examining finger. We segmented the relevant anatomy from an MRI taken of the pelvic region, registered 3D models and analysed retrospectively performance in relation to executed tasks, supination/pronation, palpation convex hull and pressure applied. RESULTS: Primary care consultants examined the anatomy more holistically compared to secondary care experts, the maximum pressure applied across experiments is 3.3N, overall the pressure applied on the prostate is higher than that applied to rectal walls, and the urologist participant not only applied the highest pressure but also did so with the highest most prominent frequency (15.4 and 25.3 Hz). CONCLUSIONS: The results of our research allow for better understanding of experts' technical performance from relevant specialities when conducting a DRE, and suggest the range of pressure applied whilst palpating anatomy. SIGNIFICANCE: This research will be valuable in improving the design of haptics-based learning tools, as well as in encouraging reflection on palpation styles across different specialities to develop metrics of performance

Twelve tips for designing and implementing an academic coaching program

Coaching has become increasingly popular as a mechanism to support learning across the health professions education (HPE) continuum. While there is a growing body of literature in this area, there is minimal guidance related to the design and implementation of academic coaching in health professional courses. This paper seeks to contribute to this literature by presenting guidance for academic developers who are considering introducing academic coaching into a health professional course. The 12 tips are based on the authors’ collective experiences of designing and implementing academic coaching in university medical courses in Australia and the UK. Although focused on medical education, this paper is intended to have applicability across the health professions, and potentially across university and postgraduate training contexts. Together, the tips offer a strategic and operational framework to guide the design and implementation of academic coaching initiatives in health professions education.The author(s) reported there is no funding associated with the work featured in this article

Development of a three-dimensional printed heart from computed tomography images of a plastinated specimen for learning anatomy

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s) and Korean Association of ANATOMISTS. Learning anatomy is commonly facilitated by use of cadavers, plastic models and more recently three-dimensional printed (3DP) anatomical models as they allow students to physically touch and hold the body segments. However, most existing models are limited to surface features of the specimen, with little opportunity to manipulate the structures. There is much interest in developing better 3DP models suitable for anatomy education. This study aims to determine the feasibility of developing a multi-material 3DP heart model, and to evaluate students' perceptions of the model. Semi-automated segmentation was performed on computed tomgoraphy plastinated heart images to develop its 3D digital heart model. Material jetting was used as part of the 3D printing process so that various colors and textures could be assigned to the individual segments of the model. Morphometric analysis was conducted to quantify the differences between the printed model and the plastinated heart. Medical students' opinions were sought using a 5-point Likert scale. The 3DP full heart was anatomically accurate, pliable and compressible to touch. The major vessels of the heart were color-coded for easy recognition. Morphometric analysis of the printed model was comparable with the plastinated heart. Students were positive about the quality of the model and the majority of them reported that the model was useful for their learning and that they would recommend their use for anatomical education. The successful feasibility study and students' positive views suggest that the development of multi-material 3DP models is promising for medical education

Student assistantship programme: an evaluation of impact on readiness to transit from medical student to junior doctor.

BACKGROUND: Studies report that medical graduates are not prepared for practice as expected, and interventions have been developed to prepare them for practice. One such intervention is the assistantship, which provides hands-on opportunities to hone clinical skills and undertake responsibilities under supervision. The Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine (LKCMed) is Singapore's newest medical school, and students undergo a Student Assistantship Programme (SAP) to prepare for practice as junior doctors (PGY1). This study evaluated the SAP from the students' and clinical supervisors' perspectives. METHODS: Students completed online questionnaires to assess readiness for practice before and after SAP, and a subsample were interviewed about their experiences of SAP and its impact on their preparedness for PGY1. In addition, after our graduates had begun work as PGY1 doctors, their clinical supervisors completed an online questionnaire and were interviewed about the perceived benefits of SAP and the attributes of our graduates as junior doctors. RESULTS: Fifty (96%) students completed the pre-SAP questionnaire and 46 (92%) completed the post-SAP questionnaire. Levels of preparedness increased post-SAP (mean scores range pre-SAP: 2.38 to 4.32 vs post-SAP: 3.08 to 4.48); so did opportunities to undertake PGY1 duties (pre-SAP: 56% vs post-SAP: 96%), and hands-on experience in medical emergencies (pre-SAP: 76% vs post-SAP: 89%).Experience of acute care situations increased except "paracetamol overdose". Readiness to be first respondents in ten acute situations improved (statistically significant for asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation, gastrointestinal bleed, sepsis, and adverse drug reactions). Three themes emerged from twenty-five student interviews: learning about the work environment, opportunities to learn in a safe environment, and enhancing SAP for future students. Thirty-three supervisors completed the questionnaire, and 70% rated SAP positively in preparing students for PGY1. Eight supervisors interviewed shared positively about the content, timing, and duration of SAP; and suggested future SAPs help students to develop coping and reflective skills. CONCLUSIONS: The SAP improved students' preparedness and experience across clinical areas, and students felt the SAP helped bridge undergraduate curriculum and work, provided opportunities to hone their skills and learn from junior doctors. Most clinical supervisors rated the SAP effective in preparing students for PGY1. This is the first formal evaluation of an assistantship in Singapore, and the findings are encouraging from the perspective of students and PGY1 supervisors

Role of social comparison in preparedness for practice as a junior doctor in Singapore: a longitudinal qualitative study

ObjectivesTo date, most research on medical graduates’ preparedness for practice has conceptualised preparedness as something possessed by the individual. However, new doctors work within social settings with other people and, given this, we argue that preparedness has a social and comparative dimension. The aim of this paper is to explore medical students’/graduates’ self-assessments of their preparedness for practice using the lens of social comparison theory.SettingWe invited medical students from one of Singapore’s three medical schools who were in their final-year Student Assistantship Programme to participate in semi-structured interviews, and follow-up interviews 6 months later when they were working as junior doctors. Data was collected from two cohorts, in 2018 and 2019. Initial analysis of interview transcripts was inductive and thematic. Social comparison theory was used for subsequent theory-driven analysis.Participants31 participants took part, of whom 21 also engaged in follow-up interviews.ResultsWe identified three uses of social comparison: as coping strategy to manage uncertainties in transitions where there was no formal, objective testing of their performance; as a means to confirm their self-perceived preparedness (upwards or downwards, eg, being better or worse prepared than comparator others); and as the basis for decision-making (eg, changing career choices).ConclusionsSenior medical students and newly-graduated doctors compare themselves with peers and near-peers in terms of prior learning and current performance to evaluate and understand their own performance at work. Future studies need to examine further how the feeling of preparedness or unpreparedness generated from social comparisons may affect subsequent clinical performance and professional development.</jats:sec

Improving the evidence base of Markov models used to estimate the costs of scaling up antiretroviral programmes in resource-limited settings

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite concerns about affordability and sustainability, many models of the lifetime costs of antiretroviral therapy (ART) used in resource limited settings are based on data from small research cohorts, together with pragmatic assumptions about life-expectancy. This paper revisits these modelling assumptions in order to provide input to future attempts to model the lifetime costs and the costs of scaling up ART.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analysed the determinants of costs and outcomes in patients receiving ART in line with standard World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for resource poor settings in a private sector managed ART programme in South Africa. The cohort included over 5,000 patients with up to 4 years (median 19 months) on ART. Generalized linear and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to establish cost and outcome determinants respectively.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The key variables associated with changes in mean monthly costs were: being on the second line regimen; receiving ART from 4 months prior to 4 months post treatment initiation; having a recent or current CD4 count <50 cells/µL or 50-199 cells/µl; having mean ART adherence <75% as determined by monthly pharmacy refill data; and having a current or recent viral load >100,000 copies/mL. In terms of the likelihood of dying, the key variables were: baseline CD4 count<50 cells/µl (particularly during the first 4 months on treatment); current CD4 count <50 cells/µl and 50-199 cells/µl (particularly during later periods on treatment); and being on the second line regimen. Being poorly adherent and having an unsuppressed viral load was also associated with a higher likelihood of dying.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>While there are many unknowns associated with modelling the resources needed to scale-up ART, our analysis has suggested a number of key variables which can be used to improve the state of the art of modelling ART. While the magnitude of the effects associated with these variables would be likely to differ in other settings, the variables influencing costs and survival are likely to be generalizable. This is of direct relevance to those concerned about assessing the long-term costs and sustainability of expanded access to ART.</p

Lives saved by Global Fund-supported HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria programs: estimation approach and results between 2003 and end-2007

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since 2003, the Global Fund has supported the scale-up of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria control in low- and middle-income countries. This paper presents and discusses a methodology for estimating the lives saved through selected service deliveries reported to the Global Fund.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Global Fund-supported programs reported, by end-2007, 1.4 million HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral treatment (ARV), 3.3 million new smear-positive tuberculosis cases detected in DOTS (directly observed TB treatment, short course) programs, and 46 million insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) delivered. We estimated the corresponding lives saved using adaptations of existing epidemiological estimation models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By end-2007, an estimated 681,000 lives (95% uncertainty range 619,000-774,000) were saved and 1,097,000 (993,000-1,249,000) life-years gained by ARV. DOTS treatment would have saved 1.63 million lives (1.09 - 2.17 million) when compared against no treatment, or 408,000 lives (265,000-551,000) when compared against non-DOTS treatment. ITN distributions in countries with stable endemic <it>falciparum </it>malaria were estimated to have achieved protection from malaria for 26 million of child-years at risk cumulatively, resulting in 130,000 (27,000-232,000) under-5 deaths prevented.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results illustrate the scale of mortality effects that supported programs may have achieved in recent years, despite margins of uncertainty and covering only selected intervention components. Evidence-based evaluation of disease impact of the programs supported by the Global Fund with international and in-country partners must be strengthened using population-level data on intervention coverage and demographic outcomes, information on quality of services, and trends in disease burdens recorded in national health information systems.</p

A Surprising Prevention Success: Why Did the HIV Epidemic Decline in Zimbabwe?

Daniel Halperin and colleagues examine reasons for the remarkable decline in HIV in Zimbabwe, in the context of severe social, political, and economic disruption

Uganda's HIV Prevention Success: The Role of Sexual Behavior Change and the National Response

There has been considerable interest in understanding what may have led to Uganda's dramatic decline in HIV prevalence, one of the world's earliest and most compelling AIDS prevention successes. Survey and other data suggest that a decline in multi-partner sexual behavior is the behavioral change most likely associated with HIV decline. It appears that behavior change programs, particularly involving extensive promotion of “zero grazing” (faithfulness and partner reduction), largely developed by the Ugandan government and local NGOs including faith-based, women’s, people-living-with-AIDS and other community-based groups, contributed to the early declines in casual/multiple sexual partnerships and HIV incidence and, along with other factors including condom use, to the subsequent sharp decline in HIV prevalence. Yet the debate over “what happened in Uganda” continues, often involving divisive abstinence-versus-condoms rhetoric, which appears more related to the culture wars in the USA than to African social reality