7 research outputs found
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation
We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation
using a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather
prediction model (ALADIN). We particularly look at the Multi-Layer Perceptron.
After optimizing our architecture with ALADIN and endogenous data previously
made stationary and using an innovative pre-input layer selection method, we
combined it to an ARMA model from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data
series. This model has been used to forecast the hourly global radiation for
five places in Mediterranean area. Our technique outperforms classical models
for all the places. The nRMSE for our hybrid model ANN/ARMA is 14.9% compared
to 26.2% for the na\"ive persistence predictor. Note that in the stand alone
ANN case the nRMSE is 18.4%. Finally, in order to discuss the reliability of
the forecaster outputs, a complementary study concerning the confidence
interval of each prediction is proposedComment: Energy (2012)
Information selection and utilisation in hypothesis-testing: A comparison of process-tracing and structural analysis techniques
Linear indices in nonlinear structural equation models: best fitting proper indices and other composites
Best fitting proper indices, Generalized canonical variables, Partial least squares, Latent factor scores, Indices, Interaction, Flat maximum,
Identifying creative research accomplishments: Methodology and results for nanotechnology and human genetics
Geometric representation of association between categories
Categorical data, simplex, triangular plot, paired comparisons, rank orders, permutation polytope, center of gravity, BTL model, Rasch model, inertia, association model, variation, multidimensional unfolding, biplot, multinomial response model, loglinear model, forced classification, classification tree,