Future developments in modelling and monitoring of volcanic ash clouds: outcomes from the first IAVCEI-WMO workshop on Ash Dispersal Forecast and Civil Aviation

As a result of the serious consequences of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption (Iceland) on civil aviation, 52 volcanologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dispersion modellers and space and ground-based monitoring specialists from 12 different countries (including representatives from 6 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres and related institutions) gathered to discuss the needs of the ash dispersal modelling community, investigate new data-acquisition strategies (i.e. quantitative measurements and observations) and discuss how to improve communication between the research community and institutions with an operational mandate. Based on a dedicated benchmark exercise and on 3days of in-depth discussion, recommendations have been made for future model improvements, new strategies of ash cloud forecasting, multidisciplinary data acquisition and more efficient communication between different communities. Issues addressed in the workshop include ash dispersal modelling, uncertainty, ensemble forecasting, combining dispersal models and observations, sensitivity analysis, model variability, data acquisition, pre-eruption forecasting, first simulation and data assimilation, research priorities and new communication strategies to improve information flow and operational routines. As a main conclusion, model developers, meteorologists, volcanologists and stakeholders need to work closely together to develop new and improved strategies for ash dispersal forecasting and, in particular, to: (1) improve the definition of the source term, (2) design models and forecasting strategies that can better characterize uncertainties, (3) explore and identify the best ensemble strategies that can be adapted to ash dispersal forecasting, (4) identify optimized strategies for the combination of models and observations and (5) implement new critical operational strategie

VOLCANS: an objective, structured and reproducible method for identifying sets of analogue volcanoes

The definition of a suite of analogue volcanoes, or volcanoes that are considered to share enough characteristics as to be considered exchangeable to a certain extent, is becoming a key component of volcanic hazard assessment. This is particularly the case for volcanoes where data are lacking or scarce. Moreover, volcano comparisons have often been based on similarities and differences inferred through expert judgement and not necessarily informed by volcano characteristics from global datasets. These similarities can be based on a range of features, from very simplified (e.g. statrovolcanoes) to very specific (e.g. detailed eruption chronologies), and may be strongly influenced by the personal experience of individuals or teams conducting the analogue analysis. In this work, we present VOLCANS (VOLCano ANalogues Search)—an objective, structured and reproducible method to identify sets of analogue volcanoes from global volcanological databases. Five overarching criteria (tectonic setting, rock geochemistry, volcano morphology, eruption size and eruption style), and a structured combination of them, are used to quantify overall multi-criteria volcano analogy. This innovative method is complementary to expert-derived sets of analogue volcanoes and provides the user with full flexibility to weigh the criteria and identify analogue volcanoes applicable to varied purposes. Some results are illustrated for three volcanoes with diverse features and significant recent and/or ongoing eruptions: Kı̄lauea (USA), Fuego (Guatemala) and Sinabung (Indonesia). The identified analogue volcanoes correspond well with a priori analogue volcanoes derived from expert knowledge. In some cases, single-criterion searches may not be able to isolate a reduced set of analogue volcanoes but any multi-criteria search can provide high degrees of granularity in the sets of analogue volcanoes obtained. Data quality and quantity can be important factors, especially for single-criterion searches and volcanoes with very scarce data (e.g. Sinabung). Nevertheless, the method gives stable results overall across multi-criteria searches of analogue volcanoes. Potential uses of VOLCANS range from quantitative volcanic hazard assessment to promoting fundamental understanding of volcanic processes

Evidence of change in UK atmospheric composition as a result of Icelandic volcanic emissions in 2014

Abstract relates to a poster presentation at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2015

Investigating Source Conditions and Controlling Parameters of Explosive Eruptions: Some Experimental-Observational- Modelling Case Studies

Explosive volcanic eruptions are complex systems that can generate a variety of hazardous phenomena, for example, the injection of volcanic ash into the atmosphere or the generation of pyroclastic density currents. Explosive eruptions occur when a turbulent multiphase mixture, initially predominantly composedf of fragmented magma and gases, is injected from the volcanic vent into the atmosphere. For plume modelling purposes, a specific volcanic eruption scenario based on eruption type, style or magnitude is strictly linked to magmatic and vent conditions, despite the subsequent evolution of the plume being influenced by the interaction of the erupted material with the atmosphere. In this chapter, different methodologies for investigating eruptive source conditions and the subsequent evolution of the eruptive plumes are presented. The methodologies range from observational techniques to large-scale experiments and numerical models. Results confirm the relevance of measuring and observing source conditions, as such studies can improve predictions of the hazards of eruptive columns. The results also demonstrate the need for fundamental future research specifically tailored to answer some of the still open questions: the effect of unsteady flow conditions at the source on the eruptive column dynamics and the interaction between a convective plume and wind

3D geological models and their hydrogeological applications : supporting urban development : a case study in Glasgow-Clyde, UK

Urban planners and developers in some parts of the United Kingdom can now access geodata in an easy-to-retrieve and understandable format. 3D attributed geological framework models and associated GIS outputs, developed by the British Geological Survey (BGS), provide a predictive tool for planning site investigations for some of the UK's largest regeneration projects in the Thames and Clyde River catchments. Using the 3D models, planners can get a 3D preview of properties of the subsurface using virtual cross-section and borehole tools in visualisation software, allowing critical decisions to be made before any expensive site investigation takes place, and potentially saving time and money. 3D models can integrate artificial and superficial deposits and bedrock geology, and can be used for recognition of major resources (such as water, thermal and sand and gravel), for example in buried valleys, groundwater modelling and assessing impacts of underground mining. A preliminary groundwater recharge and flow model for a pilot area in Glasgow has been developed using the 3D geological models as a framework. This paper focuses on the River Clyde and the Glasgow conurbation, and the BGS's Clyde Urban Super-Project (CUSP) in particular, which supports major regeneration projects in and around the City of Glasgow in the West of Scotland

Good practice guides for the science threshold learning outcomes

In 2011, Susan Jones and Brian Yates led the Learning and Teaching Academic Standards (LTAS) project for Science. This project laid the groundwork for educational change by catalysing a national discussion of learning outcomes for Australian science graduates. The Science Threshold Learning Outcomes (TLOs) for graduates of bachelor-level degrees in science are endorsed by the Australian Council of Deans of Science and are publicaly available in the Science Standards Statement (Jones, Yates & Kelder, 2011). The next step is implementation of the Science TLOs through building a common understanding of how student achievement of the TLOs can be evidenced through learning activities and associated assessment tasks. This is timely as the sector positions itself to respond to the Learning Standards developed by the Higher Education Standards Panel (HESP). The Science Good Practice Guides (GPGs) are designed to provide practical advice and exemplars to assist with embedding the Science TLOs within programs. Each GPG includes: a short review of national and international research and practice, an annotated bibliography of resources, and a brief selection of good practice examples of teaching and assessment. They are authored by disciplinary experts recruited via a national call for expressions of interest. The Good Practice Guide for TLO 1 ('demonstrate a coherent understanding of science') has already been published (Yucel, 2012). In this presentation, we launch four more Guides to complete the set of Good Practice Guides (GPGs) for the Science TLOs. These GPGs will form the foundation of a shared suite of resources to be hosted on the ACDS Teaching and Learning Centre (http://www.acds.edu.au/tlcentre/)

Surveying volcanic crises exercises: From open-question questionnaires to a prototype checklist

Volcanic crisis exercises are usually run to test response capabilities, communication protocols, and decision-making procedures by agencies with responsibilities to cope with scenarios of volcanic unrest with inherent uncertainty, such as volcano observatories and/or civil protection authorities. During the last decades, the use of questionnaires has been increased to evaluate people's knowledge on volcanic hazards and their perception of risk, to better understand their preparedness to respond to emergency measures plans. In this paper, we present a study carried out within the European Network of Observatories and Research Infrastructures for Volcanology project (EUROVOLC) focused on extracting information on the experience gained during volcanic-crisis exercises by the project's participants and beyond. An open-ended question questionnaire was firstly distributed for a survey within the project community. Through the results obtained, we developed a user-friendly online multi-choice questionnaire that was submitted to the volcanological communities within and outside EUROVOLC. Analyzing the answers to the online questionnaire, we extracted a prototype checklist for guiding the design of such exercises in the future. Our results confirm this type of survey as a very useful tool for gathering information on participants' experience and knowledge, able to understand which data and information may be useful when designing exercises for scientists, emergency managers and decision makers. In particular, the main lessons learnt regard the need i) to increase training activities involving people exposed to volcanic hazards and media, ii) to improve external communication tools (between players and public/media), equipment and protocols and iii) to better define decision-makers' needs