Technical Progress, Sorting, and Early Retirement

[cat] El progrés tecnològic afecta a la jubilació anticipada a través de dues forces oposades. Per una banda, augmenta el salari real i, per tant, crea incentius per posposar la jubilació. Per altra banda, causa l’erosió de les habilitats dels treballadors, el qual augmenta la probabilitat de jubilació anticipada. En aquest article reexaminem l’efecte del progrés tecnològic en la jubilació anticipada tenint en compte que, al principi de la vida laboral, els individus es distribueixen en diferents sectors segons la seva habilitat. Obtenim dos resultats principals: 1) per petits (grans) canvis tecnològics, l’efecte salari (erosió) domina, i 2) els individus més capaços resisteixen millor l’efecte erosió.[eng] Technological progress has been shown to affect early retirement via two opposite forces. On the one hand, it increases real wages and, therefore, creates incentives to delay retirement. On the other hand, it causes an erosion of workers' skills, which raises the probability of early retirement. We reexamine the effect of technological progress on early retirement by taking into account that, at the beginning of their working life, individuals sort into sectors according to their ability level. This gives us two main results: 1) for small (large) technical changes the wage (erosion) effect dominates, and 2) the more able individuals resist better the erosion effect

A new look at technical progress and early retirement

Technical progress affects early retirement in two opposing ways. On the one hand, it increases real wages and thus produces an incentive to postpone retirement. On the other hand, it erodes workers' skills, making early retirement more likely. We re-examine the effect of technical progress on early retirement in the US. We measure technical change during the whole working life of the individuals and find that its effect on the probability of early retirement is non-monotonic. In particular, when technical change is small, the erosion effect dominates, but when it is large the wage effect dominates. These results may signal that the higher the technical change, the more willing are the elderly to retrain, which has direct policy implications for the design of elderly training programs

Dual interest rates and the transmission of monetary policy

The recent experience in the euro area with dual interest rates, that is, central bank funding at rates below the level at which central bank reserves are remunerated, showed that such a tool can constitute a new form of monetary accommodation. On top of supporting bank credit, central bank funding with dual interest rates enables an easing of bank lending conditions without the increased risk appetite that a standard rate cut might bring about, especially if considered after a prolonged period of low or negative interest rates

How Do Aggregate Fluctuations Depend on the Network Structure of the Economy?

[spa] En este artículo, analizamos la volatilidad agregada de una economía estilizada donde los agentes estann conectados en redes. Si hay relaciones estratégicas entre las acciones de los agentes, choques idiosincráticos pueden generar fluctuaciones agregadas. Demonstramos que la volatilidad agregada depende de la estructura de redes de la economía de dos maneras. Por un lado, si hay más conexiones en la economía en su conjunto, la volatilidad agregada es más baja. Por otro lado, si las conexiones están más concentradas, la volatilidad agregada es más alta. Presentamos una aplicación de nuestras predicciones teóricas que utiliza datos de EEUU de conexiones intrasectoriales y de diversificación de las empresas.[eng] In this paper we analyze the aggregate volatility of a stylized economy where agents are networked. If strategic relations connect agents,actions, idiosyncratic shocks can generate nontrivial aggregate fluctuations. We show that the aggregate volatility depends on the network structure of the economy in two ways. On the one hand, the more connected the economy, the lower the aggregate volatility. On the other hand, the more concentrated the network, the higher the aggregate volatility. We provide an application of our theoretical predictions using US data on intersectoral linkages and firms’ diversification patterns

How Do Aggregate Fluctuations Depend on the Network Structure of the Economy?

[spa] En este artículo, analizamos la volatilidad agregada de una economía estilizada donde los agentes estann conectados en redes. Si hay relaciones estratégicas entre las acciones de los agentes, choques idiosincráticos pueden generar fluctuaciones agregadas. Demonstramos que la volatilidad agregada depende de la estructura de redes de la economía de dos maneras. Por un lado, si hay más conexiones en la economía en su conjunto, la volatilidad agregada es más baja. Por otro lado, si las conexiones están más concentradas, la volatilidad agregada es más alta. Presentamos una aplicación de nuestras predicciones teóricas que utiliza datos de EEUU de conexiones intrasectoriales y de diversificación de las empresas.[eng] In this paper we analyze the aggregate volatility of a stylized economy where agents are networked. If strategic relations connect agents,actions, idiosyncratic shocks can generate nontrivial aggregate fluctuations. We show that the aggregate volatility depends on the network structure of the economy in two ways. On the one hand, the more connected the economy, the lower the aggregate volatility. On the other hand, the more concentrated the network, the higher the aggregate volatility. We provide an application of our theoretical predictions using US data on intersectoral linkages and firms’ diversification patterns

A new look at technical progress and early retirement

Technical progress affects early retirement in two opposing ways. On the one hand, it increases real wages and thus produces an incentive to postpone retirement. On the other hand, it erodes workers' skills, making early retirement more likely. We re-examine the effect of technical progress on early retirement in the US. We measure technical change during the whole working life of the individuals and find that its effect on the probability of early retirement is non-monotonic. In particular, when technical change is small, the erosion effect dominates, but when it is large the wage effect dominates. These results may signal that the higher the technical change, the more willing are the elderly to retrain, which has direct policy implications for the design of elderly training programs

Technical Progress, Sorting, and Early Retirement

[cat] El progrés tecnològic afecta a la jubilació anticipada a través de dues forces oposades. Per una banda, augmenta el salari real i, per tant, crea incentius per posposar la jubilació. Per altra banda, causa l’erosió de les habilitats dels treballadors, el qual augmenta la probabilitat de jubilació anticipada. En aquest article reexaminem l’efecte del progrés tecnològic en la jubilació anticipada tenint en compte que, al principi de la vida laboral, els individus es distribueixen en diferents sectors segons la seva habilitat. Obtenim dos resultats principals: 1) per petits (grans) canvis tecnològics, l’efecte salari (erosió) domina, i 2) els individus més capaços resisteixen millor l’efecte erosió.[eng] Technological progress has been shown to affect early retirement via two opposite forces. On the one hand, it increases real wages and, therefore, creates incentives to delay retirement. On the other hand, it causes an erosion of workers' skills, which raises the probability of early retirement. We reexamine the effect of technological progress on early retirement by taking into account that, at the beginning of their working life, individuals sort into sectors according to their ability level. This gives us two main results: 1) for small (large) technical changes the wage (erosion) effect dominates, and 2) the more able individuals resist better the erosion effect